That headline might strike some of you as a cheekily bold statement, or maybe an obviously sensible and earnest request, or perhaps just the fans’ conceited over estimation of their ability to advise a highly intelligent man, commended by many pundits and fans as one of the best Arsenal managers  ever, on how to do his job.

Before jumping to conclusions, let’s quietly have a look at how taking this advice could, should and would be beneficial to all involved – Arsene, the club and also devoted Gooners everywhere.

It has long been held that, in some circumstances, large groups of individuals often demonstrate more intelligence and problem solving ability than smaller groups, or even elite, professional groups and that this collective intelligence is far greater than that of the most intelligent person in any given group.

If we take our common interest in Arsenal and our concomitant desire for the club to successfully reach decisions enabling it to achieve the trophies many would love to see them collect, whilst also being run in a way that protects the future of the club, we, the fans, the owners, the coach and the players can be considered just such a group as we all have the same objectives.

What the heck am I talking about?

The example most frequently given, though there are many others, is that of an ox which was paraded at a County Fair, and offered to the person who could most accurately guess the butchered weight of the poor beast.

The competition was open to any individual, in what was a huge crowd, even including expert butchers and, to the surprise of the judges, it was the average of the guesses which were made that was much closer to the true weight of the ox, rather than any of the individual or expert estimates that were received!

Applying the theory to Arsenal, it suggests that a large, diverse collection of independent individuals or small groups representing such individuals, such as the many blogsites available on the internet, could collectively make better decisions for certain parts of the running of the club, such as transfer decisions, than any one individual or small group of experts, however clever they may be, and that includes Arsene!

The way forward for undertaking this decision making process would, most logically, have to be a forum, possibly the AST, representing the collective views of the many blogging sites found on the internet, which would collect and promulgate the disparate views and opinions, however strange, made by the many thousands of Gooners throughout the world, and distil them into viable decisions which could be presented to the club.

There are some simple criteria and safeguards which would need to be put into play, of course, and these would necessarily include, the need to have as many blogsites’ inputting their opinions as possible. Within each blogsite it would be critically important that no blogger should feel coerced, influenced or persuaded to change his/her mind because of the opinions of the more eloquent bloggers around them, and, finally, there would need to be a way of channelling the key decisions arrived at by each blogsite to the agreed Forum.

Many Gooners might find the following interesting, because it is not intuitive, but as a way of enfranchising as many as possible from all parts of the world, and to encourage them to participate fully, it might help to know the following.

1. Groups/blogsites, are collectively more intelligent than the smartest person in them
2. For the blog to be intelligent it must be diverse, independent and decentralized.
3. To make the best decisions there must be disagreements, arguments and contests.
4. Listening to too much outside information makes a group less intelligent.
5. There is certainly no need to consult the ‘expert’ within the group.

All good?

Well, before Arsene starts reading the blogs in earnest, it is worth pointing out that there may be a fly in the ointment.

There is a psychological phenomenon that can occur within a group of people such as those frequenting a blogsite. That is the natural desire to be in harmony with others, especially when decision making, and this, unfortunately, overrides the pragmatic appraisal of realistic alternatives and devalues the expected output.

The effect is straightforward , in that members on a blogsite try to minimise conflict with those they consider as friends and acquaintances and therefore reach an unhappy and unsatisfactory compromise decision, on, for example, whether or not Arsenal need to give priority to buying a defender, or whether that priority should be for the purchasing of a world class centre forward, because it is very difficult to critically evaluate that decision while under the cosh of social pressures calling for uniformity.

However, the real cost of trying to achieve unanimity when fans are deeply involved in a cohesive ‘in’ group such as a blogsite is the loss of individual creativity, uniqueness and independent thinking, because of an innate desire for collective optimism and the avoidance of collective conflict.

None of the difficulties mentioned, above, would justify Arsene Wenger in ignoring this request to listen to the fans, and to not carry out a conscientious in-depth and careful analysis of the views expressed on the fans’ blogs, even as they are, because despite all their imperfections, and without there being a real driver to put in place the Forum suggested above, there really is a highly motivated and intelligent decision making source out there that he should be tapping into.

Without going all Star Trek Voyager on you, although there is a lot to be said for looking at and listening to ‘7 of 9’, for some of us at least, the evidence all points to the collective intelligence being greater than the single entity, and among the myriad, disorganized, jumble of voices calling out, via the blogs, for this or that change at the club, and the prevarications on how the club should be run, some of which are pure nonsense, there is a nugget of pure decision making gold out there, among the frenetic voices of the fans, just waiting to be garnered.

Come on, Arsene, be bold, Listen to the Wisdom of the Fans, and we will conquer the world!

Written by Red Arse

Anyone who has seen my comments for any reasonable period will know there are two things that annoy me, navel gazing and regurgitation of “facts” which have no underlying substance….actually make that three things….and Tony Pulis.

So the latest complaint from many a Gooner is that our squad is not deep enough, now we are seeing a few injuries we are also seeing a few cracks appear. I know we wouldn’t be football fans if we didn’t react to situations at our club emotionally, but I have two questions, are we really that weak in depth, and if we are that weak, are we any worse off than the other contenders fighting on four fronts? (well in effect three fronts for Chelsea and Man Utd and just the two for City).

Please understand I am not for one second saying we have the best starting eleven or the best players but in terms of our back up (squad) players I ask you to look at the other teams and ask would you really take any of their second and third choices over ours.

In the Capital One Cup a week or so back Chelsea started with Cahill and Luiz at centre backs, surely the Capital One Cup is not the height of their ambition that they played these two by choice, they also started Mata and played him for 120 minutes, so that was three regular league starters in their line up, United fielded two very inexperienced young defenders at centre half, surely their squad is deeper than that? So were Chelsea really keen on the Capital One Trophy or did they have no other options, as for United did they really not care enough to field the youngsters or is their squad not as deep after all?

So with nothing better to do with my time I headed to wiki and put all the squads into a spreadsheet to compare each position side by side.

I have included Liverpool squad below not because I think they are contenders but purely and simply because I really like to laugh at what they have become, as Rocky pointed out yesterday its always good to look for positives and in my opinion if that doesn’t put a smile on your face the next best thing to do is laugh at the misfortune of others.

This is a club that swept all before them in the 80’s, won the Champions League less than a decade ago but have now slipped out of the reckoning in most major competitions, I have yet to see a broken Liver Bird splashed on the back page of the tabloids, or Dippers in Crisis headline that this fall from grace surely deserves. (Okay thats four things that annoy me).

Where better to start than goalkeepers:

So looking at that list is their any keeper who you think is better than our 2nd and 3rd choices? Perhaps the only team that does is Spurs (off to wash my mouth). The constant question from people disappointed by our custodians is “why can’t we buy someone like Schwarzer as cover?”, my question is why has no one else? Lets be honest City can have any player they want but they signed Richard Wright as cover when Stuart Taylor hung up his gloves, why don’t keepers want to go and play second fiddle? Because keepers want to play, they expect to play, if they are number one at a club they can have the plaudits even if the team in front of them is not that good, they can’t get plaudits on the bench, they lose international spots by being on the bench, they don’t like sitting on the bench.

On to the full backs:

I rest my case

Centre backs:

Now it becomes clear why Chelsea started Luiz and Cahill, with no Terry (due to suspension) and Ivanovic their only viable option at right back they have no cover at Centre Back, an injury to either of the remaining two and who knows who they will play at Centre Back, Man Utd due to injuries to Vidic, Jones and Smalling, could not risk their two first choice centre backs before our visit to Old Trafford (admittedly if they had known we were going to turn up and play like big girls blouses they might have) so were left with no other option than to play two inexperienced youngsters, we on the other hand had the spare capacity to field two experienced centre backs in the Capital One Cup (not that it did us many favours).

Midfield:

Obviously we all know Arsene likes a midfielder so we must have the most players in this area.

Compared to the other teams I do not think the depth looks that bad, however here is where the obvious issue of injury raises its ugly but familiar head, presently without Diaby and Rosicky, but we can arguably cope with two injuries in this area of the pitch. Look at Chelsea and I’m not sure you could say the same, United would end up fielding Giggs and Scholes week in week out. City, Spurs and Liverpool all have inexperienced players in waiting that I am not sure their managers would like to utilise regularly.

Forwards:

Obviously the split between midfielders and forwards is subjective but if we assume everyone uses a 4-3-3 of sorts this was the best way to split up the squads.

Again looking at the list of talent across the squads, perhaps only United go as deep as us, there is also an argument that says the players they have got will make more impact on a game. Chelsea without doubt have two of the best forwards in the league in Mata and Hazard, but injury to either and they don’t look any better off.

And finally the strikers:

Now this is our weakest area on the pitch, thankfully we only play with one striker, and in some matches we haven’t even fielded them instead choosing to use some forwards in their place.

In reality however only United and City have more depth than us, and I don’t think Liverpool, Chelsea or Spurs can promote a striker from their forward line where as we do at least have that option.

So in summary do you still think the squad is not deep enough? I expect the answer to that question is still yes, the question that should be asked though is:

Is the squad shallower than our nearest rivals?

For me it isn’t, the difference between the teams is the starting elevens, Chelsea and City have invested many millions to achieve a very good first 15 players, but they have limited themselves further down the pecking order, especially as they ready themselves for FFP. Any significant injuries or suspensions and they will struggle.

Perhaps this is the one area where we are quite literally weaker, not in the amount of players or the quality of player but in physical strength, we seem to suffer injuries far more frequently than the other competing sides, City hardly suffered an injury of note last season they are a physically strong team, those that come from outside the Premier League are physically strong, the ones from within the Premier League conditioned for battle already, perhaps with the exception of Silva.

So Paddling Pool or Olympic Diving Pool?

(In my defence I wrote this post after Reading and before Old Trafford, but it fits the bill of “Be positive about Arsenal Week” as started by Rocky yesterday).

Gooner in Exile

Is a match report going to make you feel better? No, I thought not, me neither. Is there any point in revisiting a game where we were 2-0 up after twenty-three minutes and then contrived to throw that lead away by the 40th minute going in to the break 2-2.

Were we undone by two amazing bits of skill from Fulham for their two goals? Well, it would be a comfort to say yes, but no is the answer to that too. Seriously poor defending and static zonal marking handed Fulham their two goals and it’s not the first time we have delivered these kind of gifts to opposing teams.

It’s seven weeks since, against the run of play, we allowed Lescott to nod home from a corner for Man City and take the lead and in those seven weeks we have conceded too many goals in a similar fashion. I can’t see any evidence of work having been done on the training ground to stem the tide, surely in seven weeks some improvement should be visible. Even if we just worked on defending corners there would be some improvement? Why are we still making the same errors?

I have always firmly believed in the ‘we’re gonna score one more than you’ ethos, the gung ho approach, the ‘we don’t really have to care about defending because we’re a full on attacking team’  but holy cow, the time must have come to put some practice in on the simple things. Go back to basics, think about defending and what it means for the team, stop stroking the ball around in front of our goal mouth when a row Z is needed, stop an attack high up the pitch, don’t wait until the opposition are bearing down on us, take a yellow card for the team.

It’s time to take defending seriously even if that means more bore draws, the foundation of a great team cannot be built on such repetition of errors, they have to be stamped out for this team to have any credibility.

Anyway rant over about the defending, there were some good points to share with you.

Theo started the match and although I have slated his inability to be the footballer I hoped he would be, I do think he’s getting close to that now …………. I’m still hoping he’ll stay. He whipped in a fine corner for Giroud’s first goal and his lofted cross for Giroud’s second was sublime, in addition he made sure he was there when Giroud’s attempt hit the post.

Giroud is impressing me now, he works really hard to get his head on whatever he can and today he could have scored a hatful. How must he feel finally getting the ball in the back of the net and then to be part of a team that throws a lead away?

When Fulham scored their third the ground went nuts. It felt like ages between Berb’s penalty and Giroud’s goal to make it 3-3 but I’ve just seen it was only 2 minutes. From then on we had our tails up and the supporters played their part but time was running out. A dubious hand-ball decision gave us a penalty in the 4th minute of extra time – who would take it? Arteta stepped up and Schwarzer saved. It was not to be.

Throwing away two two goal leads in the space of four days is a disgrace for a so-called top team and so even if Arteta had scored the penalty I would feel the same about the defending. Although I have to say it was a bit of a bonus being two up in the first place.

There are so many things not going right for this disjointed, unbalanced team. Playing football can’t be this difficult, what is making it so difficult for them? Other teams with less ability than ours manage to play football, to hold onto leads, to string passes together and to look like they’re enjoying it. Come on Arsene, sort it out please or hand the reigns over to someone else.

Over to you all now, if anyone wants to supply some player ratings I’ll be happy to add them on.

This is what Arsène had to say about the game.

Written by peachesgooner

Let me start as I often do. Admitted Arsène lover here. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t do some things differently. Here’s a few, in no particular order.

I would give Podolski some rest. It seems he’s nursing a slight injury and can’t go all out. As he is, he’s certainly not helping the team. Even with Gervinho’s injury, we still have options. Arshavin, one of the kids, or Santi, with Arsh or Jack behind striker. If it’s not an injury, maybe we should consider trying Pod more centrally.

Ramsey would generally not start in midfield, except in an emergency- I would not start him on the wing ever. He would be an energetic, versatile, late substitute only. I like him, but i’m not sure it’s going to work out. I have been a defender of his previously.

I see no reason why we can’t go with Sagna at LB, Jenks on right against tougher opponents. I would consider Santos vs lesser teams. I’m not sure he can’t do the job, but I’d hold him to a high standard.

Honestly I’m fine with our 3 top CB’s. We just need to get the most out of them. I can forgive the occasional mistakes by any of them..they deserve that because they play hard. I’m ok with Vermaelen as Captain, but i’m not happy with his affection for van Persie, this might still be a problem in future matches. He needs to be more cold ( as does the rest of the team) – this comes from Arsène being classy, and basically too nice.

I would give Theo the raise he wants or close to it, to lock him down for a while – we could move him on in the future if needed. Some other team would still take him at that salary. Unfortunately, I think it’s too late though. Obviously, I would have done it sooner, or sold him and scooped up Moses, Mirallas, or someone else. But right now, I’d get him signed if possible. I think it’s worth another 1 or 1.5 million a year to avoid the possible disaster of him going elsewhere and turning out great, especially as a striker. If that were to happen, we would really be laughed at, and it will be impossible to keep any of our players. After the RVP debacle, it’s the safer choice. We must fix this salary structure that doesn’t let us retain our stars.

I would have the deal done today, for Huntelaar in January. So many people say he’s too similar too Giroud. I don’t buy that. He’s an extremely talented, proven scorer – right footed, inexpensive, and still in his prime. For the little he would cost, you don’t have to worry about sell on value. Of course I would be looking at other improvements in the market, mostly up front.

I wouldn’t mind a bit of competition between Sczezsney and Vito, though I still lean towards the Pole.

If we get healthy in midfield, I’d give some rest to Santi, and use him on the wings sometimes in a more agressive set up.

If we need to shake things up, I would consider some of the young kids. Yennaris, Eisfeld, Gnabry. Just not all at the same time. But they would certainly not lack effort.

I would make sure the team looks at matches like Old Trafford as a great opportunity. Not much to lose considering our recent record there. No reason to dread the match, or feel pressure. Much weaker teams get results there occasionally, and we should feel we can beat anyone, anywhere. It’s a shame we lost the high from the Capital One Cup so quickly.

I still prefer the unknown of Usmanov to Kroenke. I don’t know if it can ever happen because of the Board, but I don’t understand the fans who don’t want him. Why would he want to spend all that money to own a team, and not at least TRY to win trophies. I don’t blame him for trying to influence his way into control with public statements, or whatever. The board is using any little technicality to keep him out. Rich owners do sometimes make great player purchases, they don’t all have to be like Torres. They also can bring in top Managers. Even Man city, with all of their waste, are still spending to build an academy system. Money is not necessarily bad, if you use it wisely.

Johnnie nyc