Almunia; Dead Man Walking? ….. and the real stats

August 18, 2010

Since two writers have submitted posts giving their particular angle on Manuel Almunia, we have decided to publish them both to demonstrate how views can contrast and stats can prove anything!

A view on Almunia written by 26may1989

What must be going through the mind of Manuel Almunia? We’re all frustrated and annoyed that the new keeper Wenger is after hadn’t been secured before the season’s opening, but I guess the point of this post is to try to look at this situation from Almunia’s point of view.

Whatever we think of his ability to be our first choice keeper, and I am very much of the view that he doesn’t have what it takes technically, Almunia has consistently shown himself to be a man of dignity and modesty. Unlike his predecessor, Jens Lehmann, or the man who has led the defence in front of him over the last two or three years, William Gallas, Almunia is a genuine team player. He has also undoubtedly improved his game over the last few years, and while not good enough, is not nearly as bad as many would claim.

But he and we know the reality. Almunia is the footballing equivalent of a dead man walking. It’s now a matter of record that Arsenal have officially bid for at least one other keeper, Mark Schwarzer, who would be an improvement on Almunia but not dramatically so. Whether or not Schwarzer joins us, Almunia knows his days as first choice are numbered, and quite rightly it seems he would leave Arsenal rather than resume duties as a back-up keeper.

However, we went into last weekend with a tough and difficult opening match depending on Almunia, a man who can only feel undermined and threatened by what has happened this summer. There’s no point whingeing about the situation, it is what it is now, and it’s obvious Wenger didn’t want this situation to have come about any more than we did. I just hope Almunia’s professional pride enables him to put any feelings of frustration and alienation to one side – he may even be motivated by a degree of defiance.

I feel for Almunia being in this situation but I also believe he has the strength of character to give his best for as long as he’s Arsenal’s number one.

What the stats say by GunnerN5

Most of us have agonized over our goalkeeping for several seasons,  really since the much maligned Jens left us, boy how we would like him back now. This chart shows just how  bad our main man Almunia really was last season.

Unfortunately the complete range of stats cannot be reproduced in the chart above, but the decisive conclusions are as follows:

Almunia was 17th in saves per shot at 87.8% and 8th on amount of goals allowed at 31. What is really surprising is that our defense only allowed 254 shots against Almunia in his 29 games. This (among this group of keepers) was the 5th lowest amount for the season and the lowest shots against per game at only 9. To the writer this indicates that our defense was not as suspect as perhaps we thought and that our goalkeeping was worse than thought.

If, for instance, Almunia had  the same save % as Van der Sar at 94.1% (5.9% allowed) then he would only have let in 15 goals and we would, have most likely, won the league.

I know stats are simply stats but this chart really shows just how bad Almunia was and although Fabianski and Mannone are not shown they were no better.

Hart, Schwarzer and Given were all better than any of our lot!!

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Sack Wenger; Win Something – Written by redandwhiteviews

August 17, 2010

Written by redandwhiteviews

Unless you’ve been holidaying with Terry Waite’s old associates or staying with the Fritzls, you’ll know that Arsenal haven’t won anything for five years. You’ll know because every lazy football writer and commentator mentions it every five minutes.

My worry is that people believe the hype – because of his failure to bring ‘silverware’ to the Emirates in recent years, some ‘fans’ are even disappointed Wenger has signed a new deal. Time for a reality check:

No divine right to win the league

To begin with, and despite what the red scousers and the bare-chested idiots from Newcastle might tell you, no club has a divine right to win the league. It’s really hard to do and requires luck as well as momentum. The league invariably comes down to a few points (one point last year, none in ‘89), so a couple of bad games can put paid to your title hopes pretty quickly – in our case it used to be in November, but now seems to be March. So even if you’ve got the Chelsea open chequebook or the £60m-a-year the Mancs spend on players, you’re not guaranteed to win it anyway.

Shit cups are like chocolate teapots… pointless

Although Liverpool listed the Charity Shield among their ‘five cups’ and Spurs still boast of their success in the 1947 Norwich Hospital Charity Cup (click here if you don’t believe me), the Champions League is the only other trophy that really counts. But the Champions League is a cup competition. Any of the top sides can win it – which is why Porto did and we nearly did – and any side can lose it, which is why Chelsea, despite all their cash, never have. My point is that, however much you spend, there are no guarantees.

Building for the future…

To many, Wenger’s tighter than Beth Ditto’s waistband and needs to spend to win trophies. But the decision to build the Emirates has put massive constraints on Wenger. I honestly don’t think he’s got anywhere near the money people think. The board says there’s money to spend, but they would… otherwise clubs would target our players with even lower bids than they already do. That doesn’t mean the decision to build the Emirates was wrong. The 9,000 seats in the posh bit in the middle generate as much income as the whole of Highbury’s 38,000 seats used to. Once the stadium debt is paid for, we will have one of the world’s finest sporting arenas generating enough income to ensure our future for years to come. Around the same time, other clubs will hopefully be paying for the irrational management of their finances during the global financial crisis, and we will be in a position of most clubs’ envy – alive. Until then, the money is not available to take on the likes of Man U, Chelsea and, more notably, Man City in the transfer market. So the goalposts have moved.

The new goal

Our target during this period of paying for the stadium is to keep achieving Champions League football. Anything else will be a bonus. Wenger is spot on that 3rd or 4th in the league is better than winning the League Cup or the FA Cup. Anyone can get lucky and win a cup – Millwall made the final and Portsmouth won it – but a full season sets the men from the boys. The main thing, of course, is that the rewards are so much bigger. Would you really want Wenger fielding his best eleven in the Carling Cup on a Wednesday away at Wigan if there’s a six-pointer for a Champions League spot on the Saturday? Sack Wenger and you might just end up winning some shit… and missing out on the good stuff.

Show a little faith…

Wenger’s record speaks for itself but, if anyone thinks someone else could have done a better job on his watch, (including the idiots who have suggested Jumpy-up-and-down Martin O’Neill should be brought in to replace him), here are a few pointers.

For starters, what do Tottenham, Newcastle, ‘Boro, Sunderland, Villa, Everton, the Mancs, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City all have in common? The answer is they all have a higher net spend than Arsenal since 2004. Where are their championships, FA Cups and Champions League finals? Newcastle, Boro and Sunderland have been relegated in that time. I don’t hear commentators banging on about their lack of silverware every two minutes.

Chelsea’s have spent £248m since 2004, recouping just £100m. Wenger’s net spend per season since 2004 has been £4m. He’s achieved Champions league football every year on that budget. Every year.

Before moving to the Emirates, we were no bigger than Leeds, Villa, Everton, Newcastle, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham, Liverpool and many others who had stadiums as big as ours and therefore the same income. Arsenal have been in the Champions League for 11 seasons running. Where have the others been? Newcastle have been to Bristol Rovers for league games. Leeds have been to Cheltenham, Hereford and Yeovil.

In summary, Arsenal made a decision some years ago that, rather than stand still with our peers, we would take a punt on building a big stadium to generate long-term higher income and the chance to compete at the very top.

What they saw in Wenger, a man who had already revolutionised British football with his views on fitness, training, diet and tactics, was a man who could not only steer us through the period in which we would have to pay for that plan, but who had the foresight to begin a youth policy which would also give the fans something enjoyable to watch and the chance of success every year without spending money – even if that success doesn’t always materialise. I’ll take security and hope over trips to Cheltenham, Hereford and Yeovil, Carling Cups and the Norwich Hospital Trophy any day. But the commentators aren’t interested in that, are they?

redandwhiteviews was previously known as heffer on this site. This article has been published on his site, but he has allowed us to reproduce it on here for our readers to enjoy.

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Arsenal; Money and The changing Face of Football

August 13, 2010

Written by Red Arse

Money! Money! Money! Like it says in the song “Money makes the world go around”

So, from the point of view of the fan, what has this to do with the Mighty Arsenal, you might ask? Well let’s see. There are three main characteristics in play when referring to money in football;

Envy:

We use the term in an envious way when talking about Chelski or Manure in particular. How often have you heard the phrases “They bought their way to the Title”, or “Without Abramovich’s money they would have gone bust” or “They bought the Title by hugely increasing their debt”. All of it true, perhaps, but certainly when seen from the perspective of the little green eyed monster. Money!

Pride:

We are all secretly, and maybe openly, as proud as punch when the Media announce we have the best stadium, or, perhaps, one of the best stadiums in the world. This was made possible by moving the ground to a new site and investing money into a project to develop the old Stadium into modern, expensive, domestic housing for sale at a hoped for great profit.

Suddenly, we were all puffing our chests out like entrepreneurs and talking about the property market and calculating the size of the resultant debt against the returns from the venture in boosting the club’s coffers. Money!

Awe and Incomprehension:

We are all aware of the fact that players cost clubs millions of pounds to buy. We also try to digest the enormity of their monetary salary rewards by breaking down these earnings into weekly amounts. Leaving aside the salaries of the top, top players who reputedly earn as much as £200,000 per week, we also are aware that “average” players can earn around £80,000 per week. That equates to approximately £4,200,000 per year. Over a player’s career of 12 years, that works out at £50,400,000. Yes over £50,000,000! Awesome Money!

Compare that to the average Joe who would be reasonably happy to earn £50,000 per annum. A simple 12 year gross earnings total would be £600,000, which is only a tiny 1.2% of the average player’s income over that period. But wait, the average Joe has to pay tax and N.I. too, which, less allowances, would roughly equal a 30% deduction on his salary amounting to £15,000, leaving a net yearly take home of £35,000, about half the player’s gross weekly wage.

Ah, you say, the player would have to pay huge taxes on his huge salary and that will balance things up. But no, his salary is calculated, in large part, on income received from the sale of his image rights, which are treated as non taxable! Incomprehensible Money!

………..Oh get to the point. We are where we are, it is what it is, and we can do nothing about it.

Well, I have got to agree with that sentiment. So I thought I would try to help Arsenal better fund this expenditure on infrastructure and players. How can we make more MONEY?

One of the greatest changes in English Club football has been to the demographics of their support. We are all familiar with the old black and white films showing supporters “Up for t’Cup”. Almost without exception these supporters were men. Nowadays, most women are financially independent and with the move away from standing terraces to seating and the new stadiums with their much improved facilities, there has been a huge increase in the number of women supporting their clubs. They are every bit as passionate, knowledgeable and vociferous as their male counter parts, and for the clubs they provide a welcome boost to their income. The clubs invested money into their infrastructures and reaped the benefits.

Another huge change to the Clubs’ income, perhaps its biggest, has been its UK and European television revenues.

In addition, television now enables almost every PL game to be shown around the Globe, and this is one area where Arsenal are sadly lagging behind the more enterprising clubs in making themselves available to fans, and potential new fans, elsewhere in the world.

All fans want to see their favourites in the flesh, and even the lower clubs in the PL are making tours to Africa, China, and America. The impact of this is that they are reaping the benefits of increasing numbers of fans and the sale of merchandise to them.

In the future, as television penetrates deeper into these markets, the TV revenue available will increase tenfold for those clubs who have made the effort and gained a toehold now, which will boost their share of the pot in later years.

In addition, revenue from the sale of football kit and memorabilia will produce potentially millions of pounds extra from the associated merchandising of the club and its players through the sale of image rights.

There are at least 2 billion people in the Middle East, Africa, China and America who are potential football fans and if Arsenal managed to get just 1% of these as fans and received only £1 extra revenue from each of them, that would amount to a £20,000,000 increase in their income. Only 1% paying only £1 = £20m! Imagine if this was 10% = £200m? Amazing Money!

So my advice is “Move your arse-nal Mr Gazidis and tell Arsène to pull his finger out and give Austria a miss in the pre-season — tour the world instead”!

Money, Money, Money, makes the world go around!

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Reading Arsène’s Mind

August 1, 2010

So what have we learnt from the pre-season games so far – what has Arsène learnt? Obviously we can’t read his mind but we can draw logical conclusions from his team selections and have a crack at deciphering the coded messages he sends out in press conferences.

These are simply my conclusions based on what I’ve seen in the pre-season games and Arsène’s own words (as opposed to journalists ‘interpretation’ of his words)

  1. He hasn’t yet decided who will be first choice keeper. I think he is increasingly coming to the conclusion that it won’t be a disaster if we don’t sign another GK – this may be partially driven by the fact that he can’t find a buyer for Almunia and that new Fulham manager Mark Hughes will not want to let Schwarzer go and may even have made it a stipulation of accepting the job.
  2. Koscielny was always intended to be TV’s centre-back partner and based on his impressive improvement in every game (many said he was MotM yesterday) he could be a great signing. Koscielny is an Arsène type player. He is a very athletic defender and a good ‘footballer’, but his slight stature means that against the more physical teams, he will be overpowered by opposition strikers. For this reason, I think AW was hoping that Djourou would be able to deputise in some games – in my opinion he is not good enough. For a man of his size he lacks aggression. He doesn’t attack the ball in the air in the way TV does and he is not positionally aware in set pieces. For this reason I think Arsène is still looking to sign another CB but is extremely loathe to spend the £10m required to get the likes of Mertesacker or Jagielka.
  3. Nasri has reacted positively to his World Cup exclusion. His performances have been consistently good in pre-season and his emergence as playmaker has allowed Arsène to take a tougher public stance on the issue of Cesc’s departure for Barça. The recent statements to the Press have been more for the ears of Cesc himself and his  message is “We are the ones in a position of strength, its about time you started acting like our captain again and came out in public and committed yourself to Arsenal”
  4. I believe that the inclusion and performances of Frimpong and Nordveit have been highly significant. Arsène sees Frimpong as a genuine contender to deputise for Song if he is injured or more likely needed in central defence and Nordveit similarly has the quality to play as CD, RB or DM – we don’t know how they will deal with the pressure of top flight football but I have a feeling we will find out this season.
  5. Arsène will be delighted with his attacking options for the coming season. Although some may have reservations over Koscielny, Chamakh is going to be a huge success – don’t be surprised if Man City are offering £30m for him next summer. Unlike any of our other striking options, he has ALL the attributes required for the job. He is a big strong lad. He has pace and great close control. He has a strikers lust for goals and yet is unselfish in his play. He is better in the air than any of our other strikers. He has quick feet, a better first touch than Bendtner, and is a more composed finisher than RvP.

All the above is pure speculation. It is not written as a criticism of the manager. I think that Wenger, post his partnership with David Dein, has been a great servant of the Board and will continue to spend the club’s money sparingly. The commercial growth of the ‘business’ is still the prime objective. To grow at a time when almost every other club is shrinking is a major achievement and the focus will not change for the foreseeable future.

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Arsenal, man and boy…… memoirs of a life-long Gunner

July 21, 2010

We are delighted to publish this fascinating historical insight from our latest writer GunnerN5. The bomb site he played on as a lad is what we now know as Ashburton Grove … yes, the Emirates Stadium; how times have changed.

I was born on Avenell Road as the bombs were dropping on Islington; later we were evacuated to Lemsford near Hatfield in the county of Hertfordshire.

My maternal Grandfather was a coalman and used to deliver around the cobbled streets of Highbury by horse and cart. He lived on Stavordale Road and watched the very first Arsenal game at Highbury.
For my 10th birthday he took me to my first Arsenal game- Nov 22nd 1947 – Arsenal 2 Huddersfield 0 – I was hooked for life.

We were a poor family and my parents could not afford to buy me tickets to the game but that did not stop a determined Arsenal supporter from getting into the ground. Over the walls, I had to negotiate the broken glass bedded into the cement at the top of the walls and often went home with torn pants and got a clip round the ear. Through my Dads legs and under the turnstiles, usually ending up with scuffed knees.

Failing either of these ways in I would wait until half time and when the stewards opened the gates I would dash in and hide in the crowd – the stewards used to give a mock chase but I think they kinda enjoyed letting me go.

I went to every home game, 1st team one week, reserves the next and went to every away cup game that I could afford. We stood as a family under the clock, about 20 of us. My parents both were born in family’s with 9 sons who fathered 46 sons. Of the 64 of us, 60 were fervent Gunners but 4 misguided soul’s went the wrong way up Seven Sisters Road and ended up to be Spurs supporters – I ask ya?

Life’s path took me and my family to Canada, it was a real shock not being able to go to live games but I’ve made up for it by having 3 satellite dishes and the internet – between which I NEVER miss a game, although not always live. Still to this day Arsenal results can make or break my day and as game time approaches I still get goose bumps.

Being a statistical type of person I’ve created masses of data on our history and have recorded on excel spreadsheets every seasons results by year and manager. I also have our history by every team we’ve played in the EPL.

I’ve seen the teams of our past 12 managers going back to George Allison and in this mans view Arsene Wenger is far and away the best.

Unfortunately I’ve not seen a live game at the Emirates although as a kid I did play around that area.

Cheers to all and here’s to another exciting season.

Since GunnerN5 grew up in wartime, we thought it would be interesting to reproduce this passage describing the adaptation of Highbury, taken from Arsenal.com…..

Highbury becomes ARP stronghold during World War II

During the Second World War 42 of Arsenal’s 44 professional footballers were drafted into the services. The majority of the administration staff at Highbury followed and even the stadium itself did its bit for the war effort.

Arsenal Stadium, Highbury was transformed into a ARP (Air Raid Precautions) stronghold and Arsenal had to play their wartime home fixtures at White Hart Lane!

Incidentally, manager George Allison did convert the referees room at Highbury into a small flat for a while.

Success continued during the war years with Arsenal winning the South A League in 1940, the London League in 1942, the Football League South and the Football League South Cup Final in 1943.

Arsenal relied heavily on guest players during that six-year period, notably Stan Mortensen and Stanley Matthews.

For all its efforts, Highbury paid the price when it was bombed. The North Bank was completely destroyed and much of the terracing on the South Stand was also damaged. These had to be repaired before Arsenal could return home after the war.

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The Exit Looms …. But For Who?

July 12, 2010

When discussing buying players recently, I’ve found myself repeating the phrase ‘cautiously dipping our toes back into the transfer market’.

I know we’ve been buying players selectively over the last couple of years, but I do believe that the pattern of one decent signing over the summer will become 2,3 or even 4 as long as our profits remain healthy and the squad needs reinforcing.

In a perfect world, we’d have a gifted and balanced squad, none of whom want to leave, fed by a constant influx of talent from our youth system, but Carlsberg don’t do football management. I don’t expect us to buy any ‘finished article’ £25m+ superstars, but continue with what we do best and that is to identify players who are not on the radar of the big clubs but are ‘Wenger gems’ in the making. I expect Koscielny to be just such an acquisition.

This brings me to the main point of the post. In the future, if we are going to bring in 2 or 3 players, we will also be letting 2 or 3 players go. Competition for places in the side should be fierce and hopefully this will increase desire, ambition and work rate in the squad. I’m not referring to the likes of  Sol, Silvestre and Campbell’ older players who are being ‘let go’. It would be great if the next time we sell a player it will be because WE want to  rather than THEY would prefer to play for a ‘bigger’ club.

In yesterday’s post, 26may1989 put it very well when he wrote this about the respective performances in the World Cup ‘Never has a tournament shown the value of team play, of the collective over the individual. To me, that’s a good thing.’

I would argue that team spirit and belief is eroded when the better players know that there are weak links in the side.

We’ve discussed the importance of not damaging player’s confidence by character assassination from the terraces; in the media or on the blogs, but the ruthless objectivity that has got us into this enviable position must also apply to the squad.

The purchase of Vermaelen to replace Kolo Toure is a perfect example of the way I think we should go about strengthening the squad.

I have it from a ’very reliable source close to the top’ (hell, I sound just like the sort of rumour monger I despise), that last season, there were four first team regulars that were thought not to be up to standard – pretty amazing that we finished 3rd in the Premiership if that really was the case.

I can already sense every reader compiling a list in their heads. Apart from the obvious choice of the keeper, this subject will produce more disagreement than any other. Song would be one of the first names on the team sheet for me whereas I am yet to be convinced that Diaby can produce the consistency and discipline required.

I shall not describe any players in relation to a ‘popular savoury spread’, but suffice to say that we all employ our personal prejudices when evaluating players and sometimes that is an irrational judgement, but the harsh reality is that we can now afford to replace any that are not good enough – and that’s precisely what we must do!

Arsène will no doubt have it in his mind that next season will be make or break for some players. He has announced in previous years that he expects player ‘A’ (Theo?) to really step up a level, he now has the financial clout to replace player ‘A’ if he fails to reach the required standard. Every player with potential should be given the chance to prove they can make the grade (Vela?), but equally there is a point where persistence with failure damages the team and costs games.

We will have a stronger team this coming season. The description of Koscielny as a ‘warrior’ says it all; Arsène knows we need to be stronger and more aggressive to compliment our silky passing skills.

I expect that any player who consistantly fails in terms of ability and work rate will be closest to the door when we go shopping next summer.

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In Praise of the World Cup

July 11, 2010

Has the WC really been that bad? Germany have been a revelation. A young side playing skilful, organised football and scoring lots of goals along the way.

Argentina burned brightly and, like a supernova, collapsed in on themselves.

The tiny nation of Uruguay (population half of London) got to their first semi final in 50 years through a mixture of skill and cheating.

Others have done well. The finalists of course have risen to the occasion once in a while, though hopefully will do better tomorrow. New Zealand, bizarrely but heroically, managed to leave underrated and above Italy. Ghana flew the flag for Africa, though the others from the host continent were disappointing.

Even the failures have contributed to the drama, coming as they did from the over proud ranks of traditionally strong nations: Italy of course, England having to face the realities of their limitations and most spectacularly and absurdly, France. Never has a tournament shown the value of team play, of the collective over the individual. To me, that’s a good thing.

There have been refereeing errors but fewer than usual. The Lampard “goal” was even good as a means to show once and for all that change is needed.

As for the hosts, I’ve loved the vuvuzelas – South Africans love football, and they’ve shown their passion even after their side (the poorest South African side for years, unfortunately) was eliminated. From the outside, it’s very easy to think sport there is about rugby and cricket, but football is the true passion of the masses. There’s not much I agree with Sepp Blatter on, but the vuvuzela is a distinctly local feature, and I’m pleased of it.

The WC 2010 hasn’t been as good as some (1998, 1986, 2006 etc) but it’s been better than others (1994, 2002). But it is fair to say it’s not been great for Arsenal – those there haven’t performed especially well, several others weren’t even there. And then there’s been the farce of tapping up Cesc.

But overall, I’ve been pretty happy with the WC.

Written by 26may1989

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Arsenal Sign £30m Star – should have gone to Speculation Savers!

July 7, 2010

Not much has changed since I last tried to reign in the excesses of those supporters who denigrate our club because we have failed to sign Messi (OK I exaggerate – but they started it).

We had a seemingly well informed blogger (Dudulino) on yesterday who claims to have met Koscielny at the training ground. Apparently he will wear squad number 6. The announcement of his arrival will be made with full fanfare on AW’s return from the World Cup – I believe Dudulino, it is totally in line with the way the club is being run now and for the foreseeable future.

Shock Headline from The Sun “Arsenal eye £40m swoop for Italian Stars” – calm down dear, it’s only a commercial …… to attract readers to a gutter newspaper!

Let me put everyone’s mind at rest. We aren’t going to sign any £30m players – but that’s OK, we’ll still be the Arsenal. We are just a couple of years ahead of the way every other club is going to have to operate. For some (pool) that change may come too late.

In the same way as we showed the Premiership how to play football and introduced new training techniques at the start of Wenger’s era, so we are now showing them how a club MUST be run to ensure survival. Most Premiership clubs can only dream of having a stadium like the Emirates, let alone achieve it with manageable debt.

I am optimistic that Schwarzer is already on his way and we will sign a big right sided central defender – Mertesacker will do nicely. I’m not bothered about Joe Cole, we have players as good as him already. I think a player like Mertesacker could be the last piece in the jigsaw for next season and would raise the intriguing prospect of Vermaelen or Djourou being advanced into the defensive midfield role. We have been linked with Ozil for £20m today (yawn), obviously that would only be a possibility if Cesc leaves.

I’m no saint when it comes to my wish list. I’d love us to sign Torres, but more than that, I want us to continue on this path because I wouldn’t risk the stability of the club for anything, if we did, all the hard work of the last 5 years would be wasted.

I hope my light hearted approach (or should that be reproach?) hasn’t upset any of those who crave signings at any price. We are all gooners after all and even those of you who are foaming at the mouth due to our lack of transfer activity will keep supporting the Arsenal come what may.

Written by Rasp

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Summer Signings – expect to be ‘slightly disappointed’

June 28, 2010

 

Since when did telling it like it is make anyone a pessimist?

I expect to be slightly disappointed by our transfer activity this summer for the fifth season in a row, but I am eagerly looking forward to next season, full of the optimism  and 100% behind whichever Arsenal players take to the pitch.

If I had to stake anyone’s house on it, I would guess that by the time the transfer window closes, Cesc will still be an Arsenal player and we will not have signed any players over the £10m mark. If he goes, we may look for another midfielder but I still would not expect us to pay over £20m for a ‘replacement’ (possibly Gourcuff) even if we get £45m for Cesc.

My disappointment will be that it doesn’t look like we will be in the market for another holding midfielder to protect the back four. A player who could either cover for, or play alongside Song. I don’t think Diaby can concentrate for long enough periods to be a reliable DM and Denilson lacks the physical presence. We need a player who will allow our numerous attacking midfielders to play with more freedom, a system that Brazil have executed very effectively in this World Cup.

In the belief that the deals for Koscielny and Schwarzer are in the bag, this is how it currently stands:

IN IN THE BALANCE OUT
Chamakh Campbell Merida
Ebecilio Fabregas Senderos
Koscielny Almunia Gallas
Schwarzer Joe Cole Silvestre
Player ‘X’ Player ‘X’ Eduardo

Forget about labelling anyone as a pessimist – wake up and smell the coffee …this is how it is……

  1. The dynamic of footballer transfers has become polarised by the emergence of billionaires who see owning a football club as a status symbol, and at the other end of the scale, by the growing debt of clubs at all levels. We are not even going to enter into a bidding situation over a player if the likes of citeh, chelski, Real or Barça are interested.
  2. Our Board and manager are ‘prudent’ in the extreme and have formulated a business model for the club that is held up as THE way to run a football club in the 21st century. As is often pointed out on this site, it is a small miracle that we have achieved the level of success we have in terms of league position over the last five years under the financial constraints imposed due to the building of the stadium.
  3. In terms of priority, playing attractive football that entertains and attracts supporters and TV audiences and keeping the club solvent is more important than winning trophies. Arsène has said that qualifying to the Champions League is ‘winning something’ and in terms of revenue to the club that cannot be denied.
  4. The media and internet community are responsible for 99% of the rubbish that is disseminated regarding transfers, but it is also so pervasive that it is virtually impossible for any club to land a ‘surprise big signing’. All of our recent player acquisitions have been flagged up for weeks in advance. The process is often protracted as we negotiate hard to get the player at the best possible price.

Arsène has come out again and said “We will soon sign a player on the defensive front”. Translated that means the deal for Koscielny is already done and we are just sorting out the fine detail. This will allow the club’s PR department maximise the impact and announce the signing before the end of the WC in line with Wenger’s promise.

Unless one of the major shareholders takes the plunge and makes a successful takeover bid and decides to recklessly gamble their own money on buying players, I expect our involvement in the transfer market for the rest of the Wenger era to be pretty much at the level demonstrated this summer. We are not going to pay £30m+ for the likes of David Villa. The so-called ‘warchest’ was club spin to say that we are in a better condition financially this summer and we can spend some money if Arsène chooses – not that we are going to splash out £40m on a high profile player.

I choose to support Arsenal in the knowledge of these limitations and have to reluctantly accept that winning trophies is not our right or even our main priority. If we do win anything next season it will be a huge bonus. If we don’t, we will be entertained by some wonderful football.

On the positive side, I expect Chamakh to be our top scorer, Koscielny to be another ‘Vermaelen’, Ramsey to return and become a great player and Cesc to give us one more quality season. On the negative side, I expect we will suffer more than our fair share of injuries, we will go out of the cup competitions by the quarter final stages and we will still lose points to the likes of Stoke and Blackburn.

That’s not pessimism, it’s realism!

Written by Rasp

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Posted by Rasp

England relieve the pressure on Arsenal supporters

June 19, 2010

Well what a load of rubbish our national side dished up last night. My immediate post match reaction was all about anger and disappointment rather than logical analysis – just like when Arsenal have a poor game. Of course it’s all football and not surprising that the emotion is similar when watching England as watching Arsenal.

Arsenal will always come before England in my heart, but I’ll watch a game in the park and find myself urging one team to win even though I’ve never seen them play before.

All this got me thinking about the parallels between a poor England performance and a poor Arsenal performance.

The big question that applies to both is….. are the players to blame or the manager?

Did Capello become a bad manager in the last week? Do we have a different Arsène Wenger in charge compared to the one who orchestrated the Invincibles?

The England side lacked balance. Players were played out of position – Gerrard wide left; Heskey just a magnet for the long ball with no end product; Lampard there just for his reputation. Joe Cole was the only player available who could produce some magic and he was left sitting on the bench. I’m 100% sure that if Theo had been on the bench he would have been brought on last night, but he wasn’t even in the squad – BIG mistake.

The manager clearly failed to say anthing to make a difference in his half-time team talk and he didn’t select the players from the bench who were capable of turning the game around. I don’t buy the argument that the players are overpaid prima donnas who couldn’t care. To me they looked like they wanted it too much, were scared of failure and could not handle the pressure despite their wealth of experience. I consider Capello to be the most culpable for England’s poor performance.

Arsenal too have been guilty of fielding sides that lack balance and using players out of position. We have favoured players who by all accounts are brilliant in training but fail to reproduce that form in matches. We have looked clueless and lacking in a plan B, so logically, one would expect to apportion most of the blame to the manager – and as we are all aware, many supporters take that view to extremes.

Here I think the comparison falls down. Unlike Capello, Arsène is answerable to a Board who’s first concern is the future and financial stability of the club and possibly if I am cynical, the potential future value of their investment. The candy coated PR that Arsenal churn out is blatantly aimed at giving the message thay want us to swallow rather than a true account of activities behind the scenes and Arsène is a pawn in that process. I believe he is currently making statements regarding transfers that he knows are unlikely to come true.

Yes Arsène has made some bewildering team selections and persevered with players who many believe will not make the grade. Sometimes as in the case of Alex Song, he has been proved right andin other cases the jury is still out. But he is the manager and he is paid to make those decisions.

Some of the media mongrels are already calling for Hary Redknapp to replace Capello. Although I’d like to see it simply because it would be great to hear all the whinging totnum fans, I don’t believe he has ability to manage much above the Championship.

So thank you very much Mr. Capello, you have made the self flagellation of being an Arsenal supporter in the transfer window just a bit more tollerable. I wonder if Mr. Wenger has a wry smile on his face when he witnesses the fierce condemnation that his contemporaries Domenech and Capello are being subjected to.

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Posted by Rasp

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