Transfers and The Arsenal Attack.

July 23, 2013

On this occasion, I have a huge advantage over all of you bright eyed and clever Arsenal Statty Sorts, and that is because I know what I have written below, and DidIt logic is pretty much Greek to anyone else (which obviously leaves Transplant in the know!).

Thing is, as far as I’m concerned, Rules are things that apply to others, and Stats are for my very own personal interpretation. Obtuse thinking to others, but clarity personified to me. Or so I thought.

Next season, we aim for top spot, and on the evidence of last season, these are the kind of stats we will be Gunning for:

Utd GF 86 GA 43 GD 43, while we ended with this lot:

AFC GF 72 GA 37 GD 35

First obvious thing that you will notice is that the defence doesn’t matter, as we actually conceded too few. So that’s that area dealt with. Right, up to the other end we go, and formulate a transfer strategy that will secure another 14 goals.

Let’s look at the evidence, and this is where I become DidItly elastic with the facts.

Olly scoring

The Attack is a collective unit. A successful attack is measured in goals scored, and the principal protagonists are the front three and the Advanced Midfielder (or Santi, as he’s called). Okedoke, so this is where things get a little complicated, because here I begin to use some of my own formulas and rationality. One or two assumptions need to be made. One, Ollie is the first choice CF. Theo Right, and Gerv/Pod make up the left so I’ll treat those two as one component, or position as some call it (I’m ignoring the fact that both Pod and Gerv started centrally on occasion).

Last season goals were spread thus, and I’m only talking about the league:

Giroud 11, Theo 14, Pod 11/Gerv 5, Santi 12

Pod scoring

That’s 53 goals out of our total league haul of 72 (19 to the rest)

Now, throwing in total league starts of:

Giroud 24, Theo 24, Pod 25 and Gerv 12 (av 18), Santi 36.

I then calculate the average goals (factored up or something) were these boys to start every game:

Giroud 17, Theo 22, Pod/Gerv 24, and Santi 13, giving a total of 68. Add in the 19 and we have 87. Champion Stats.

Theo scoring

So, there we have it. Same gang start every game and we are home and dry.

Oh ok, so things aren’t quite that simple, as we have to be slightly grown up about this and realize they won’t ever all start every game, so it’s a case of looking at the weak areas, despite the skew wiffiness of my logic.

What surprises me most is that Ollie, Pod, Gerv and Theo all have fairly similar goals to starts ratios. To my even more enormous surprise, it is the fragility of Theo that poses the biggest problem as we simply don’t have the goalscoring back up over on the right. I began this rather strange exercise fully expecting to justify what I have been banging on about, namely, the need for a Left Winger. The facts, however, say something completely different, which is that a Theoless Right leaves us in big trouble.

Santi scores

Given that I believe Ollie does have productive back up in the shape of Podolski, who himself doubles up to provide a two man team with Gerv on the left, that leaves the biggest question of all: the Theo fitness and can the Ox take the next step up this season and provide the goal per two games to keep the overall attack numbers on course (Last season, he had 1 goal from 11 starts!).

In short, as proved by Utd last season, and City the season before, the lack of critical injuries plays a pivotal role. City overcame this through quality cover, Utd were very lucky with Persie. Utd achieved their impressive goal tally largely through the fitness of Persie, who started 35 of their league games, but featured in all 38, to produce his 26 goals. If, as Podolski himself says, we will see the real version this season as he has overcome his injury problems, and he becomes first choice central cover for Ollie, perhaps what we need most is more firepower from the Wings.

Bernard does that. Yesterday I said I was cross that Arsene denied The Brazilian was a target. Now I’m really angry, but given that I’ve just read on the reliable Newsnow that Gerv could be off to Roma, I’m convinced a goalscoring Wide Boy will arrive, and one who can operate down either flank.

Written by MickyDidIt89