It now seems to be accepted fact that November is always a bogey month for Arsenal.
A calamitous November last season is still fresh in the memory. In the League we started with a drab 1-1 with the N17 miscreants. This was followed by a 2-1 away defeat to the Baggies (they had 1 shot on target); Le Coq was injured early on and Arteta, his replacement, put the ball in his own net before being replaced himself. Santi missed a penalty after some spot-tampering by Olsson. What could go wrong, did go wrong.
The final League game of November 2015 was a 1-1 draw with Norwich in which Santi was injured early in the 2nd half but played the whole game for some strange reason (causing him to miss most of the season) and Alexis was withdrawn with a hamstring after being shoved into a camera dug-out!
In the Champions League, the month had started with a 5-1 battering from Bayern with the only consolation, a 3-0 win over a poor Zagreb side.
On the basis of that evidence, it certainly seems as though November is cursed for us, but I wondered just how bad it had been over the past 10 years, so decided to take a gander.
The snapshot below shows both Prem and CL games won, lost and drawn and also details of any fixtures played against our next two League opponents. The bottom row shows our win, draw and loss percentages over the last 10 Novembers.
Arsene Wenger’s overall percentages are 57.5% wins, 23.2% draws and 19.3% losses. (Based on 1,136 total games including 653 victories, 264 draws and 219 defeats)
It immediately becomes clear that, in the League particularly, there is an 18% increase in defeats compared to the average. That is huge. In the Champions League the defeat percentage is about average and an increase in draws maybe due to the nature of the CL group stages.
What could be the cause of such a large anomaly in the League?
An increase in snood and glove–wearing nambypambyism caused by colder weather? Doubtful.
Excrement happens? Maybe so, but why always in the same period of the season?
Has anyone got any theories?
On a more positive note, November has had some highlights and in some seasons has even been pretty good.
November 2008 saw us beating our November nemesis, the mancs, 2-1. This victory was easier than it sounds. Two goals by the FFBW, one a belter from a snake-like pass from Fabregas, were followed by the mancs getting a late consolation.
November 2012 included the second glorious 5-2 (in one calendar year) against the spuddies. Adebayor, both put them in the lead and then, in true secret agent style, revealed his Arsenal roots and deliberately got sent off a few minutes later.
November 2013 saw us win 3 of our 4 Prem games. A 2-0 win over Liverpool, including a stonker from Rambo, one of the highlights. We also won 2 out of 2 Champions League games that month; one of which, a 1-0 away win in Dortmund, is fondly remembered by two of our AAers and their Ford Focus.
November 2016 started with a fine, hard-fought CL win on Tuesday capped with a goal of rare beauty from our German maestro. Hopefully we can continue to build a head of steam with the NLD on Sunday and our visit to the Old Cowshed the following weekend.
The next two fixtures probably won’t make or break Arsenal’s season, but they could certainly go a long way to breaking the ‘bogey November’ idea and launch us forward into a successful winter.
We’ve recently broken the Swansea hoodoo, let’s continue with this theme and banish another skeleton from our closet.
Written by chas
Chas – excellent post and right in the vein of my comments on the last one.
Let us break November’s curse – we started poorly against the Bulgarian side but we showed resilience, character and our talent shone through so let us do the same throughout November except the poor start 🙂
Why are we struggling in November? Must be down to our physical preparation and our injuries.
chas. That could be your best ever post. Informative, funny and insightful. Well played.
The reason for our 18% deficit? It’s astrological…..
November is the month of both Scorpio and Sagittarius. Not a good mixture especially given that we are in the first decade of a new century and millennium.
Scorpio’s element is water, hence the fogs and rain giving crap pitches and hindering our artistic players wizardry . The Sagitarian element is fire, often anger, hence he rash of red cards and AW’s bad temper come month’s end.
To reveal more would tug the beard of the Zodiac and we don’t want that, do we?
Excellent, thanks chas that must have taken a lot of research.
So do statistics lie? …. in this case the chances are that there are underlying contributory factors.
It may be something to do with an increase in injuries in November related to the time they have been back in training after the summer break.
We will have accrued extra games due to the CL so maybe there iis a level of fatigue involved.
It can’t be the weather because Dec, Jan and Feb are generally colder and wetter.
As GN5 and others have said, this is probably the strongest (and deepest) squad under AW, so maybe that will make the difference. We can perm any 2 out of 5 for the engine room (central midfield) and they’re all top quality. We have more bite up front. We’re scoring more from midfield and more per game in general. So yes, we will break the curse this year 🙂
BTW Brilliant header from Rasp
Cannot eek out the time ’till later. Great read.
Of course not fatigue, cold or injuries otherwise it would all get worse in dec, jan and so on.
All mystical, superstitious nonsense. Stats that prove bad November merely highlight a chance event pattern.
Can change anytime. This November will be ideal
Back much later, sadly
It’s funny how spending a little hundred mil buys you an awful lot more luck.
To me it is a simple as that, we have a much better team and squad than we have had in many a year. The fact that Giroud and Ramsey are ready to go again at the beginning of November is no coincidence.
We have so many more options that things can be planned rather than the usual firefighting which seems to be the way these things are usually dealt with in November.
We could lose to spuds, they could get lucky, the same is true of Manu but we are favourites in both games and I expect to win.
Top read Chas your personal style really shines through up there today.
Still my favourite Pistols track … good on ya Kirsty 🙂
Super post Chas and very informative research.
As you said this November has started off on a very positive note,the team could have rolled over after the first 20 minutes at Ludogorets but instead they dug in and came out victors.
That showed me that this squad has a very different resolve to previous versions and appear to realize that they can now win with either plan “A” or Plan “B” – both have been effective. Our bench must scare the crap out of the opposition.
Man U and Tottenham simply do not have either our quality or depth so I cannot foresee us losing to either team.
But there is, of course, the Curse of November………….. 😦 😦 😦
Cheers Chas for a fine post that proves that November is a shitty month for us. Proper journalism! 😄
Not sure what causes this and it would be good to see how other top teams have done in November over the years. But like you have said before, there is only ‘thenow’ that we can influence and let’s OGAAT our way through November.
Clocks going back. It kills me and disrupts my body clock so I don’t see why this should be different for the players. Also, remember my theory about training in the morning instead of the time games are played? Add another hour to it and you have your answer – stupid fiddling with the time
Good read, thanks Chas. Every cloud and its lining…you would probably have no time if you were not crocked 🙂
This article has some interesting stats
The next 30 days could prove to be crucial in Arsenal’s 2016/17 season – but the Gunners’ record in November is traditionally worse than in any other month.
Under Arsene Wenger in the Premier League, Arsenal have won an average of just 1.59 points per game in November since the Frenchman took charge in 1996.
They have won just 36 league games in that month – fewer than half of the 78 fixtures they have played.
Arsenal month-by-month Premier League record under Arsene Wenger
Month Played Won Draw Lost Gl diff.Pts/game
January 74 39 23 12 72 1.89
February 71 41 17 13 60 1.97
March 72 48 13 11 69 2.18
April 89 53 27 9 109 2.09
May 60 35 12 13 55 1.95
August 65 35 17 13 56 1.88
September70 44 18 8 86 2.14
October 74 47 18 9 87 2.15
November78 36 16 26 32 1.59
December109 63 28 18 85 1.99
Arsenal will need to buck that trend if they are to maintain their Premier League title push, with key fixtures against Tottenham and Manchester United coming up either side of the international break before they face Bournemouth at the Emirates.
Arsenal’s November 2016 fixtures
1 Nov: Ludogorets v Arsenal – Champions League
6 Nov: Arsenal v Tottenham – Premier League
19 Nov: Man Utd v Arsenal – Premier League
23 Nov: Arsenal v PSG – Champions League
27 Nov: Arsenal v Bournemouth – Premier League
30 Nov: Arsenal v Southampton – EFL cup
5 black cats!!! so much good luck 🙂
the whole fleeping street where I live is full of spurs supporters. Next door have put up a gazeebo thingy today, no doubt for the Sunday party 🙂 shall we spoil it for them?
Set it alight Eddie
By the way, you should move
Eddie, I feel sorry for your dogs having to put up with Spurs supporters for neighbours – what were you thinking when you moved in – they could easily have been sniffed out.
I was thinking – not far away from North London, nice area, nice people, bound to support Arsenal. Now I know – snobbish Spurs. Dogs love pissing on their precious lawns 🙂
“Dogs love pissing on their precious lawns”
Now I feel a lot better – dogs have great instincts and know where to piss!!!
GN5 – absolutely 🙂 you can trust my boys
Nice one Chas. The only thing I can think of is that (in the past) it’s been something to do with our training programme, whereby we hit a dip at this point in the season. But that seems far fetched.
LB’s hundred million quid theory probably has more legs!
Eddie, your area is populated with black cab drivers and they’re all scummers
now he fooking tells me!! Thanks Rasp, why did you not tell me 3 years ago? mate.
Well look at it this way, you have single-handedly increased the percentage of Arsenal supporters in the area🙂
significantly Rasp, significantly
and my car reg gets the attention again 🙂
I’m sure they are all running scared of you. 🙂
of course they do!
I went to the old house today to dig up against Peaches’ advice my favourite shrub. I was rather moved when old neighbours came out to say hello, hugs, coffee, gossip…I was there all morning 🙂 they said they missed my humour??!! strange people
“The news was incorrect”
Makes me laugh every time.
4.50 George Graham’s latest business venture?
Raddy, have you written the PM for tomorrow yet?
Perhaps you should publish it now? Tomorrow is an early kick off, many of the regulars will be on their way to a pub
just a suggestion
another suggestion – it would be good to see last year’s pm, just to see how things have changed
Good morning all
Although it’s certainly not a good morning at this end. Don’t think I’ve ever been more tired. Beginning to really hate owls.
Big eyed, swivelly necked bastards. Wise? Definitely not. ‘Ucking teweet tebloodytewooing all ‘effing night. Little shits.
That’s a cracking idea Eddie about a previous pm. Maybe just copy and paste Erik’s predicted NLD home teams from 1 and 5 yrs ago.
5 yrs ago, 2011-12 was the 5-2. Nice.
Can’t find actual Arsenal XI
Ah ha, here’s the 2011-12 home 5-2 win line up. Rosicky was MOTD
06 Koscielny Booked
28 Gibbs (Jenkinson – 75′ )
08 Arteta Booked
14 Walcott (Oxlade-Chamberlain – 81′ )
30 Benayoun (Gervinho – 88′ )
10 Van Persie Booked
09 Park Chu-Young
Last season. Home 1-1
Arsenal: Cech (8); Debuchy (6), Mertesacker (6), Koscielny (7), Monreal (6); Coquelin (7), Cazorla (5); Campbell (6), Ozil (6), Sanchez (7); Giroud (7
Well done for spotting George Graham. The photo is from this article.
“…They can put men on the moon, but they can’t give you a new ankle.”
Here’s that Rambo goal from November 2013
Here’s BR and Micky in November 2013 when Rambo scored in Dortmund (at 11 seconds)
FFBW’s goal against the mancs November 2008.
Volume off for this one.
I think we will need the genius of chas to find last seasons NLD PM. May be good to re-publish it.
Or any of the recent home games against the Miscreants.
8:26 is superb. I hate teachers, but will make a massive exception for him. So good 🙂
BTW I completely agree about Owls. Spooky looking bastards, never met one I could trust.
Morning all. Great clips chas.
Micky, have you considered earplugs?
Incidentally, I have to agree with Iwobi, that Rambo volley in the CL was one of the best Arsenal goals I’ve seen
This would be my choice for a PM revisited, the 5-2 from November 2012. Good omens and all that baloney. 🙂
micky – rasp is right about earplugs, I couldn’t do without them. But the only ones that really work for me are wax from Boots, superb, I cannot hear a thing, drift into my own little world…
not, 2012 was long time ago, I want one from last year, Spurs best season ever
chas. Thanks. That was a really good read. Whomever wrote it knows much more about football and AFC tradition than I ever will.
I am really surprised that Chas didn’t find this one.
It’s Jeremy Corbyn talking to Bercow the speaker of the house.
Corbyn was unaware that the microphone was still on when the day after the Ludogorets game he said:
“Now we’ve just got to beat Spurs on Sunday”
If you also notice that Corbyn laments that he doesn’t think he can make the game where as Bercow says that he is definitely going.
Finally I understand the US Republican senators in Congress.
A group of Baboons is also called a Congress – very appropriate in my mind!
I did see it and decided not to post it because some on here aren’t too keen on the Arsenal/Corbyn link. 😆
You’d be surprised that, despite all the inconsequential sh*te I do end up posting on here, there is an actual selection process which goes on to weed out stuff not deemed suitable for one reason or another!!!!!!
(language which doesn’t pass the Peaches’ Mum test accounts for a big chunk 🙂 )
Chas use Ant as your sounding board – after all I cannot think of two more ardent Gunners supporters. 🙂 🙂
Well which ever side of the political fence that you may sit on I reckon that if you can’t see some humour in that one it’s your Arsenal credentials, rather than your political credentials, that are in question.
Haha, totally agree.
Thinking about my 11.43 a bit more, I’m probably talking about a more reactionary element who naffed off for pastures new a while back. 🙂
Bounce your posts off of Ant and call them —–
Wait for it…………………..
Here it comes………………….
I was thinking about your earlier Congress comment and was going to reply with something about ‘congress’ also having a different meaning which might account for some of the ‘f*ck ups’, but rejected it.
Ant says it’s ok. 🙂
Chas, my dislike for Trump is intense. He is so like Hitler in his opinions, attitudes and comments that he scares the living daylight out of me. If he gets in it will need Europe to be a unified force – instead of that it’s splitting apart. NowTrump is using Brexit as his example for the power of the people against the “establishment”
Big Raddy Arsenal – Tottenham pre match Nov 8, 2015
Who would you pick for a combined Arsenal/Spurs Eleven?
November 8, 2015
One of the ways I assess how we will fare against a team is to play the game “how many of their side would get a start in our first eleven?”, I am sure you do the same. Based upon this I was very doubtful midweek – I would have to say that all 11 BM players were better in their positions than our chaps, even Sanchez and Ozil would struggle to play for BM’s first choice 11, though they would certainly get on the bench. It is alarming to think that Vidal was their first sub – Gibbs was ours!
I compared AFC with THFC a couple of season’s ago on AA and the only Spud who got in was Lloris. Shall we try it today?
GK: A huge strength in both teams, statistically Cech is 1st and Lloris 2nd in the PL this season. By any measure Cech is the better player.
RB: If Bellerin was playing he would certainly be picked but he isn’t. Debuchy of last season was a reliable cog, not so this (so far). I know this is foolish but I rate Kyle Walker – the man is clearly a berk but IMO would make a decent deputy for Hector.
LB: Monreal vs Rose. Both fine players. Monreal’s experience and vast improvement makes him the chosen starter though Rose has proved (against us) that he is a decent attacker.
CB’s.: BFG & Koscielny are top players, they have a wonderful understanding and improve season on season. Spurs have Vertonghen and Alderwsomething. Also fine players and I was surprised AW didn’t sign the Belgian. Neither are as good as Gabriel who doesn’t get into our first 11. Maybe Vet’s would be on the bench for a combined 11. It has to be said that Martin Keown chose both Spurs CB’s ahead of our chaps, but if MK knew anything about football he would be managing and not clowning about on the sidelines! (just kidding Martin)
Midfield: Santi, Le Coq, Ozil, Campbell vs Dier, Dembele, Alli, and Eriksen. In this case we are going in with 3 against 4 assuming Campbell plays further forward. Ramsey is better than all the Spurs midfield but sadly is still injured. All looks a decent prospect. Dumbbell is in fine form but not as good defensively as Le Coq, Santi is different gravy to Eriksen, who is Spurs most talented player. Dier is another decent young player and could be excellent, but could and is are far apart.
So, Spurs have a midfield which has potential to be excellent but we have a midfield which is already excellent. Would Eriksen get into our team? Without Ramsey the answer is Yes, with a fit Ramsey, No.
Forwards: Sanchez & Giroud vs Kane and Lamela.
Lamela is interesting – the Argentinian cost ￡30m which is almost the same as Sanchez!! Is he as good as our Superstar? Is the Pope Jewish?
Giroud or Kane is not so simple. Kane is more direct, faster and a better lone striker, but Giroud has better touch, is better in the air and a better team player, The question is would Kane be a better player with Ozil and Sanchez to play off? I think he would. Looking at their goalscoring record shows OG scores slightly less than OG since 2014 but Kane has played more games. It is a tough call but Kane shades it for me.
So the combined team looks like this
Walker BFG Koscielny Monreal
Cazorla Coquelin Eriksen
This team appears a little unbalanced and perhaps I would choose to drop Eriksen for Dumbbell to give more defensive control.
What do you think?
A worry is the appointment of the imbecile Atkinson as referee. Our record with him is abysmal (check out Untold Arsenal), essentially we will be playing against 12 men and very possibly Atkinson will find a way to make it 10 vs 12.
Any NLD is exciting but this one is special. Spurs are unbeaten in 10 and we are joint TotL. A draw seems the obvious result but quite frankly the idea of the blue-bellied Scum leaving the Emirates with anything other than a damned good thrashing is unacceptable. Just think 5-2. This is a reasonable and just scoreline.
You may think that I have been remiss in my usual bating of the Shite Hart Lane knuckle-dragging, cave-dwelling inbreeds; if so I can only apologise, but rest assured that my disdain for those poor miscreants whose mothers are also their sisters remains, as always, considerable.
If any of the Miscreants can read and are stupid enough to go onto an Arsenal blog, just remember ….. You won the League – In Black and White.
Much has been written about this being a MWG; in terms of winning the title I do not agree but in terms of keeping the world righteous and in good order then Our Forces of Good have to win over the N17 Orcs.
As a famous Gooner who used to work at the Globe Theatre once wrote
“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our Arsenal dead.
In peace there’s nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favour’d rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;”
Cry God for Liam, Arsenal and St. Dennis
I just realized that my dislike for Tottenham is as intense as my dislike for Donald Trump.
Last week I got I trouble on an Islington site because was “accused” of stirring up trouble – I responded – well excuse me but I didn’t start it – that happened in 1913 when we moved from Woolwich.
It’s simply my responsibility to support my Grandfather who was one of the first Arsenal supporters to have to endure their abuse,
Sadly they did not see my side of the argument….
I’ve started to get excitedly nervous.
Just watching this has increased that feeling. 🙂
Gotta love Boro — 1-1 at Man City
chas. Great stuff. as always. Love that Cantona sits with an open shirt – so Gallic.
Boro pick up a point at City. Looks like our result was not as disappointing as I first thought
is that really Cantona?? oh dear, did not age well, did he?
I used to (very secretely) adore him. My cat had 5 kittens, I called them all Cantona
top tune, love it love it love it.
how are you? will you take crutches tomorrow or just a walking stick?
I would have thought he isn’t in bad nick for a Frenchman who’s 50.
so you are just going to hop on one leg or will get Ant to give you a piggyback?
this is a much better image 🙂
never mind his looks, it’s great to hear he loves Ozil’s goal 🙂
this is really sad “Fall at Kempton leaves jockey Freddy Tylicki paralazed”. He’s 30 and will never walk again. Unlucky lad, his dad committed a suicide and now he is crippled. So sad 😦
Wow – Conte has really lit a rocket under Chelsea 5-0 over Everton and they could had scored more……………………..
sorry, knot ear, but just to acknowledge an absolutely brilliant brilliant post, Chas. 🙂 Plenty of chuckles. 🙂 🙂
just to remember: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3geiFLBbDNw
hi arnie, are you ready for the game? freezing cold in north London today, good for the players – will run faster to keep warm. it should be a cracker.
Excellent tactical analysis, Eddie. 😂
We just need Micky on for his match analysis after not seeing the game.
Is it minus 23 in Scotland today oh bearded lovely?
are you on the train already?? I suppose it is going to take ages to hop to the Ems. It would probably be faster to get a piggyback from Ant
Are you ready for the game Eddie? DMs and knuckle duster polished?
Ant n’Dec on the road early.
Feeling too mellow to be aggressive in the PM – should have written it yesterday afternoon after returning home having cycled for an hour in the pouring rain.
Is that DB & TH?
have you been to the gym Ant? Nice muscles
no Raddy, you should have spent the night in the Bligthy. Fleeping fireworsk drove me nuts. it was nicer living amongst other foreigners who did not celebrate Guy Fawkes. English.
Lay into those Spuds Raddy, you understand the dislike as well as we do.
What about my sun tan Ed?
Did the pug survive all the banging?
You need to move Eddie
My two cats are nearly 21 years old and are both almost completely deaf. This is really useful on bonfire night. ☺
It was pouring with rain last night. GF night would have been a damp squid ( 😀 😀 )
motning all. Ant n’ Dec all geared up I see. 🙂
Yes, Eddie and Ant. Getting ready for the show, lucky underwear and all, and it is fooking cold.
ha ha ha. Ant n’ Dec, 🙂
We want a picture of Arnie’s lucky underwear!
Ant, 🙂 🙂 🙂
I feel like BFG
Good healthy breakfast.
BTW that was another of those autocorrect things which spoiled my pun. It should have read “damp squib”
We much prefer the squid
Me too 😀
Very classy at The Ems
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