Who Will Top the Premier League at the Halfway Point?

The current top six teams’ records after the first ten games are –gn5-spreadsheet1

It’s one of the closest title races that I can remember with Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool all on twenty three points while Chelsea are only one back on twenty two points. If it remains this close we can look forward to one of the tensest and most exciting seasons that we have experienced.

Manchester City started off strongly winning their first six games but they have faltered in the last four picking up only five points out of twelve.

Liverpool have the weakest defence leaking 1.3 goals per game and Tottenham have the tightest giving up a meagre .5 goals per game.

After a slow start Arsenal are unbeaten in the last eight Premier League games, only dropping points to Middlesbrough who put up a stalwart display of defence. While in those eight games we have outscored the opposition by twenty goals to six.

Chelsea faltered against Liverpool and Arsenal but have rebounded winning their last four without conceding a single goal. Manchester United cannot be counted out as although they are eight points adrift in eighth place, Mourinho will be foaming at the mouth and urging them on – plus they will most likely bring in new players during the January transfer window.

mourinho

Games against each other may well be the deciding factor and the record of those games so far this season is below. In this area Liverpool are unbeaten and have the edge with seven points already in the bag, Spurs and Everton are also unbeaten.

gn5-spreadsheet2b

The next nine games, listed below, will take us into 2017 and to the half way point in the season.

gn5-spreadsheet3

Liverpool appear to have a distinct advantage in the next nine games as they only meet two of the top six and starting with Watford they have a run of six very winnable games.

klopp

Arsenal have yet another difficult November ahead and the outcome of the next two games against Tottenham and Manchester United will give us a measuring stick on our season.

Will we see the newest version of Arsenal or will we see a return of the “old”?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Written by GunnerN5

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97 Responses to Who Will Top the Premier League at the Halfway Point?

  1. Big Raddy says:

    GN5. I have been thinking about this very subject but couldn’t raise the energy to do any research – you have obliged!

    Thank you.

    I feel confident. Everton and MC away in consecutive games could be tricky.

  2. Let’s beat Spurs first. One game at a time.

  3. mickydidit89 says:

    Excellent GN5, thank you.

    What is so nice this season is highlighted by the GF and GA columns revealing many exciting games being played by the current top three. Gone are the awful days of a Maureen side at the top boring the pants off everyone with their 1-0’s.

    To answer your question, if we can just deal with our bogey month of November and still be within a point or two, then squad depth may well see us top at the half way point, and if not, close enough to mount a charge for the summit by May

  4. mickydidit89 says:

    Of course there is only one guaranteed way to know the outcome at the half way point.. a demi-swinger, and only Exile knows 🙂

  5. Red Arnie says:

    Nice one, GN5. 🙂 Shitty top at the half way stage will be good, with us in close pursuit. That way we can enjoy their spectacular fall in the second half. Again. 🙂 🙂 🙂 But I suspect, it may be Pool on top, given their easier run, followed by Shitty and us.

    Spurs will drop points, so will Shitty, but Guardiola has me worried a little bit. So, Spurs has played 2 against the other 5 top teams, and have 2 remaining. Why? Should it not be 5 in total?

  6. mickydidit89 says:

    Arnie

    Briefly off topic. I googled sitar. Wow, that is a complicated instrument. Most sitars have between 18-20 strings (20 strings – 7 main and 13 sympathetic – other sitars often have 11 sympathetic).

    Then, you must shift the sliding frets. Yikes.

    Of course my biggest fear of you posting this stuff is, you know, cause and effect ie Erik getting one and doing Beetles numbers.

    Let’s change the subject back right now. I do apologize.

  7. Red Arnie says:

    No apols required, Micky. 🙂 Yes, sitar is complex, but check out sarod as well. For that matter, none of these are as complex as the human voice. 🙂

  8. Gööner In Exile says:

    Nice work GN5, Liverpool have probably had the best start, especially as their games against the competition have been away from home, to return with 7 points from those games puts them in good stead. However their footballing style lends itself well to playing away from home as its less likely the home side will sit and defend in front of their own fans (especially when it comes to those vying for places at the top table). Liverpool don’t have to cope with European football which is another reason why they have to be considered contenders even though they look a bit thin in squad once you’ve scratched the surface.

    Spuds are currently pinning their hopes on one man so I don’t think they will be in the running, although an early exit from CL will help them too, again the squad below the first 15 isn’t the strongest.

    Chavs have found a shape that works and City will obviously be a threat.

    I think United are probably a busted flush but Mourinho will be out to upset anyone who is in the title race as much as possible.

    We have to compete well in games against the competition but I don’t think the team that tops that table wins the league, most will take points of each other, consistency against the lesser teams will be the deciding factor.

  9. mickydidit89 says:

    Ah, you’re referring to yodelling, aren’t you? 🙂

  10. Red Arnie says:

    Micky. 🙂

  11. mickydidit89 says:

    Exile

    While I agree about Utd being a busted flush, but what do you think is the single biggest reason?

    They have some very good players, at least, better than some of their results would suggest, and a proven (if supremely dull) manager

  12. chas says:

    Excellent stuff, GN5.

    I’m definitely from the ‘one game at a time’ school of thought, though it is interesting to see the fixtures laid out en bloc.

    One thing that struck me as odd was the two home, then two away (or vice versa) fixtures at Christmas time.

    Football results are so hard to predict over one weekend let alone over 9.
    However, I’m sure the Premier League will throw up stacks of surprises, tragedies and joys over the next 9 games.

    It seems so long ago since Man City had won 6 out of six, were on 18 points and there was talk of them going unbeaten for the season. 🙂

  13. I think I go with Exile…

    Though GN5 did excellently putting up the top 6 battles, I’d add Man Utd to the mix… and for being defending Champions, I’d add Leicester City as well.

    I do believe that the matches between top 8 will not necessarily be the decider. All will drop points against each other. Arsenal dropped three against Liverpool but gained them against Chelsea…dropped two against Leicester…let’s hope they gain against Spurs. Chelsea dropped six against Liverpool and Arsenal and gained them against Leicester and Man U. ..City gained three against Man U but lost them against Spurs…still they lost two against Everton…

    Liverpool gained most – nine from Arsenal , Chelsea and Leicester…only dropped two against Spurs…so why are they not comfortably topping? Because the dropped three against Burnley.

    Arsenal is not in clear lead because of the two points we dropped against Boro…Neither is City clear because of the two they dropped against Southampton. Man U is far down not because of points dropped against ‘Pool, Chelsea and Man City…rather those dropped against Watford, Stoke and Burnley…give them those seven points and they’d be just a point off top.

    So, if I was Arsene Wenger, I’d learn to not drop further points against any bottom 12 team…them battle for whatever against the other top seven…the direction of the title will be decided by the bottom 12.

    Just watch Leicester…they dropped points against Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man U, Spurs…13 in total..they’ve played almost all the big teams bar Man City. Their poor position is because they dropped further five points against Burnley and Southampton…give them those five and they’d be tied with Everton. So if Leicester start beating the bottom teams they’d spring up the table so fast to be back in top four contention.

  14. GunnerN5 says:

    Morning all,

    I would like to thank Chas for taking the time to publish and adding the images to my otherwise dull post.

    I recognize that spreadsheets and statistics are not everybody’s cup of tea and I appreciate the comments.

    I’m of the belief that this version of Arsenal is close to being the very best overall squad in my lifetime. We have a fine combination of exquisitely skilled players and hard nosed stubborn grit. We saw this in the Ludogorets game with Ozil getting close to our God with his goal and our defense toughening up after an awful first 20 minutes.

    Arguably our back up team are as good as the starting eleven in many other PL teams.

  15. And more…it’s extremely difficult for a London-based side to win the title these days. So many derbies – all difficult and unpredictable – Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Crystal Palace, Watford, West Ham….10 derbies per season!

    At Manchester – just two derbies…just like Merseyside! Some folks get all the luck!

  16. GunnerN5 says:

    Tai, I don’t disagree with you comments and in fact my spreadsheet actually includes Man U and Leicester. However for this post I decided to only show the top 6 as Man U are already 8 points behind the leaders and Leicester are 11 back, and for them to make an impact it will take Arsenal, Man C, Liverpool and Chelsea to all falter – which I feel is unlikely.

  17. chas says:

    GN5
    No problem at all.
    Your post has currently had 826 visitors and over 1100 views.
    Dull, I think not.

  18. LB says:

    I like BR have been thinking about a similar post but couldn’t quite find a way of putting it together so like him I say thanks for the effort you have taken GN5

    For me there are only two teams in it — us and city.

    We and they are the only two who have the depth of squad to deal with the mountain of fixtures that is about to come our way in November and December, both they and us have had a lot of injuries and we are both top two.

    The spanner in the works is of course what Leicester did last year and that is have a long run with virtually no injuries, it could happen again, tottenham were looking like the team that could do that but they are starting to suffer injuries and they are having an effect which will get worse over the next two months.

    The same is true of Liverpool they could do a Leicester but the chances are slim.

    I still say the only two that will be standing come mid January will be us and city.

    I am not even taking united or chelsea seriously.

  19. GunnerN5 says:

    Hi LB, creating data based posts is a lot simpler for me than most people because out of personal interest I create and maintain various different data bases from which I cobble together my posts.

    If anyone has an interest and are familiar with Excel data bases then I would be happy to share them.

    Whilst I agree that Man C and Arsenal look like the top two choices I’ve been around long enough to be fully aware of the potential perils that await us in the swings and roundabouts.

    I agree that Liverpool and Tottenham are the most likely to fade but Chelsea are looking like a transformed team and if they can keep away from the injury blight then they will be dangerous opposition.

  20. chas says:

    GN5
    Here its. Best I can do.

  21. mickydidit89 says:

    Nice chart, Chas

    I know Totnum had an easy group, but in fairness to them, they are above giants like Besiktas and Rostov, so well done them even if they do end up playing on Thursdays

    he he he

  22. mickydidit89 says:

    Blimey, I forgot that neither Chelsea or Pool are even in the Europa.

    That really does lighten the load like Leicester last term

  23. chas says:

    It’s GN5’s chart, Micky.

    It is very interesting.
    The spuddies were so unlucky to get Monaco out of the original pot 4 teams. Hahahahahahaha.

    Celtic (SCO),
    Monaco (FRA),
    Beşiktaş (TUR),
    Legia Warszawa (POL),
    Dinamo Zagreb (CRO),
    Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL),
    København (DEN),
    Rostov (RUS)

  24. chas says:

    On the other hand, they were very lucky to get CSKA from pot 1.
    Hahahahahaha

    Real Madrid (ESP),
    Barcelona (ESP),
    Leicester City (ENG),
    Bayern München (GER),
    Juventus (ITA),
    Benfica (POR),
    Paris Saint-Germain (FRA),
    CSKA Moskva (RUS)

  25. GunnerN5 says:

    Wow Chas you did a superb job in preparing my spreadsheet – It’s way beyond my knowledge and capability so thank you.

    I understand that it does not mean much in the end result but I found it interesting how well we are doing overall when comparing ourselves to all others.

  26. chas says:

    Sorry, GN5
    I was still laughing at Tottingham. 🙂

  27. Rasp says:

    Excellent job, thank you GN5.

    Obviously it’s way too early to draw and conclusions except that the league champs are likely to come from one of the sides you list.

    Injuries may well be the deciding factor, let’s hope we have Leicester’s luck in that department – if we do, I fancy us 🙂

  28. GunnerN5 says:

    That’s fine Chas everything should be put on hold to have a good laugh at Coldspurs expense.

  29. Big Raddy says:

    Best get the laughs in early, then continue after Sunday (Deo Volente)

  30. Big Raddy says:

    It amuses me that folk think MU are a “busted flush”. Of course they aren’t – they are just going through a run of bad luck and form.

    If we leave OT with a point I will be delighted.

  31. GunnerN5 says:

    BR, Based on our performances this season I’m more optimistic of positive results against Tottenham and Man U but taking points home from OT has always proven to be very difficult for us.

  32. chas says:

    Obviously none of all this means anything as far as the NLD is concerned when all rules and form go out of the window.
    I think I’d still like to be in our position though………………ALWAYS. 🙂

    http://www.themag.co.uk/2016/11/moussa-sissoko-comedy-gold-spurs-fans-even-gary-lineker-comment-leverkusen-tottenham-hotspur-spurs-newcastle-united/

  33. chas says:

    I struggled with a couple of these (well. I think it’s only two, not sure)

  34. mickydidit89 says:

    “If we leave OT with a point I will be delighted”

    Oh do stop being so left wing, Erik. Honestly 🙂

  35. mickydidit89 says:

    McKlintock standing next to Joe Bugner by any chance?

  36. chas says:

    Yep, Bugner found that his boxing gloves helped keep out shots when the ball was thick with mud.

  37. mickydidit89 says:

    Erik

    Earlier I asked Exile on why he thought Utd had busted. My view is that Maureen’s aura has bust. All started when he lost it with that lady physio, then the weird shit antics when we thrashed them in the Charity Shield.

    Also, last season at Chavs, and again this season, he has a go at his players in public. Finally, he had them warming up in hotel car parks before two away fixtures.

    I think the Utd players might be a couple more defeats away from telling him to bugger off. We’ll see. Hope reigns though.

  38. mickydidit89 says:

    I’m quite perky as tonight I’m cooking my favourite heart attack grub aka chicken schnitzels. Must remember to add extra spice to the crumbs

  39. TotalArsenal says:

    Cheers GN5. Really nice to see the remaining first half fixtures all in a table. Like others, I believe in OGAAT as the only way to treat a championship. We could beat Spuds and Mourinho United and then lose points against Bournemouth and Stoke. Key is to regain momentum as soon as possible after a disappointing result, and I reckon we have the mentality and strength of depth in the squad for this. Let’s only focus on the Spuddies and give them a spanking they won’t forget in a hurry. Carpe Diem. 🙂

  40. chas says:

  41. LB says:

    I would also take a point now from Old Trafford, but I still don’t think they have got a prayer of winning the league.

    Ibrahmovic gets slower as every week passes.

    Jessie, Jessie how on earth can anyone win the league with a player called Jessie

    Rolls eyes

    COYRRG

  42. chas says:

    It won’t last, but it’s still funny.

  43. chas says:

    Wow, even Cech would have struggled. 🙂

  44. Big Raddy says:

    I detest Merinho but any team with the talent MU have will eventually come good, probably without The Obnoxious One.

    If they lose in Turkey it will result in them having less games to pay like L’pool and Chavs.

  45. Eddie says:

    fooking ell, almost as good as Mesut’s but not quite

  46. Eddie says:

    thank you GN5 for an excellent well researched post.

    I don’t want the ‘old’ Arsenal throwing away chances. I want them to grab the chances by the collar or neck and win something big. It is going to be incredibly hard this season, as opposed to last season that we could have and should have won the League.

    Maybe Wenger has realised that too and that’s why he is to set on the CL?

  47. Eddie says:

    I think the point Tai made about 10 derby games a season is interesting. We do tire ourselves trying to win them against lesser but enthusiastic teams bases in London

  48. Rasp says:

    Priceless that manure are 2 down but we could really do with them staying in the competition

  49. LB says:

    In the competition, out of the competition they really are poor.

    All we need to put a cherry on the top of tonight’s game is for Mourinho to have a full scale melt down.

  50. LB says:

    Eddie

    Your 7.06 is that the book cover of The Emperor’s New Clothes.

  51. chas says:

    Mr Potato head got one back just for you, Rasp.

  52. chas says:

    The blind school holding feyenoord to a draw helps the mancs as well.

  53. Red Arnie says:

    ha ha ha ha. Maureen!!!! 🙂

  54. Eddie says:

    LB – any snap of sad looking Mourinho cheers me up, should probably put it up on the wall. I get up as miserable as hell (always) one look in the mirror and I feel even worse, then one look at sad Mourinho brings a smile back to my face. Why didn’t I think of that before??

  55. Rasp says:

    Mr potato head 🙂

  56. GunnerN5 says:

    Couple meet at a bar.

    Man; I’m a politician and I’m honest.

    Woman: I’m a prostitute and still a virgin.

  57. GunnerN5 says:

    Eddie, get rid of that mirror.

  58. chas says:

  59. chas says:

  60. mickydidit89 says:

    Maybe he forgot to get them ready in the car park 🙂
    All good

  61. Eddie says:

    yes GN5, good idea. in place of the mirror I will place the photo of sad Mourinho and go straight to smiling every morning 🙂

  62. LB says:

    Well it wasn’t the full scale melt down but slagging off his own team is the next best thing.

  63. RockyLives says:

    Great work Gn5

    I feel a lot will hinge on this weekend’s game for us. If we can get a win over the swampies the mood around the pace will be incredibly positive.

    I also think you’re right about Mourinho. United will go on a decent run soon – let’s hope it doesn’t start until after we’ve played them!

  64. chas says:

    Dalston 1980

  65. mickydidit89 says:

    Here’s something very un-funny to kick Friday off, 99% I will miss game on Sunday

    Am I right in thinking my only option is to keep all comms. down, run silent, and make it through to MOTD at 10:30?

  66. chas says:

  67. mickydidit89 says:

    An Escort, a Rover, a 2CV, a lookout, a drug deal. The message?

    Morning 🙂

  68. mickydidit89 says:

    I’ve checked out the Arsenalist site, but problem is it would be unavoidable to know the result before viewing clips

    Damn, it’s going to be a long and frustrating day

  69. chas says:

    Do you remember this episode with them trying to avoid the score so they could watch the highlights later?
    Just watched the first bit – Brian Glover, hahaha.

  70. chas says:

  71. mickydidit89 says:

    Chas
    Started to watch, but 6 mins in and no useful tips!

  72. chas says:

    It’s a shame you weren’t in that Iwobi clip, Mrs I. 🙂

  73. chas says:

    So you saw Brian Glover 🙂

  74. mickydidit89 says:

    Being a good mother, I have work to do at home to make sure everything is nice for my little darling when he gets home

  75. mickydidit89 says:

    I guess so, although no idea which one he was. Didn’t watch telly until I was about 40, so missed stuff like that

  76. chas says:

    Ronnie – hahahaha

  77. chas says:

    Ah, well that episode they do manage to avoid the score just about, sit down to the highlights only to find out that it was rained off early which is what the Brian Glover character was going to tell them!!!!!

    This is Brian Glover at his finest.

  78. mickydidit89 says:

    Ronnie at 7:29 brilliant 🙂

  79. Eddie says:

    ggggrrrrrrhhhhh – that pony tail and beard….brrr…he looks like it was a foreplay with the kitten before he snaps its neck

    micky -WHY are you going to miss the game? Is your daughter getting married? Or your wife having a baby? I cannot think of anything serious enough to miss it

  80. chas says:

  81. Eddie says:

    sweet jesus that’s a horrible photo. please tell me its a cgi ?

  82. Gööner In Exile says:

  83. Eddie says:

    excellent 🙂 🙂
    and your prediction for Sunday GiE ??

  84. Big Raddy says:

    Morning All,

    Noel G really does look like AW and I love the AFC Xmas kit.

  85. Big Raddy says:

    Cat vid is bizarre but very welcome

  86. chas says:

    Loving the cat. 🙂

  87. RC78 says:

    November is our worse month – statistically…
    I think that two teams will be on top half way through – Liverpool and…Chelsea.

    Liverpool has belief and is in a positive spiral
    Chelsea has found the defensive stability of champions and Hazard and Costa are back to their best selves plus they have a lighter calendar and they are hungry to redeem themselves from last year’s poor form.

    I think that Man City has the best XI and maybe squad but that they will come better in the second half of the season so I do not think they will top at half way but may top at the end of the year.

    As for ourselves – it all depends on our fitness. We have the most balanced and hungry squad we had in years. If we want to do better than last year, we must finish first. This will greatly depend on the fitness of Bellerin, Kos, Coquelin, Xhaka, Cazorla, Ramsey, Walcott, Ozil and Sanchez. If we keep these guys fit, then we will be in good shape for challenging until the end of the year. Otherwise – it will escape us again.

  88. chas says:

    On that note, RC78. 🙂

    NEW POST

  89. RC78 says:

    Chelsea – Liverpool – Man City – Arsenal – Everton – Tottenham is my top 6 at Christmas

  90. Thanks a lot for excellent article, your advice is very useful to me.

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