The Premier League race to qualify for the 2016 Champions League.

With 16 games remaining in the season the race for Champions League places is agonizingly close. Mathematically the top 4 positions are not locked up but Chelsea appears to have the top spot firmly in their grasp. As this table shows any one of the current top 8 teams still have a shot at being in the 2016 Champions League.

                     Current position in the league

GP W D L GF GA GD Pts
Chelsea 22 16 4 2 51 22 29 52
Man C 22 14 5 3 45 22 23 47
Southampton 22 13 3 6 38 17 21 42
Man U 22 11 7 4 36 20 16 40
Arsenal 22 11 6 5 39 25 14 39
Tottenham 22 11 4 7 33 31 2 37
West Ham 22 10 6 6 35 25 10 36
Liverpool 22 10 5 7 32 27 5 35

The next table shows the 8 teams results against each other so far this season. Arsenal has dropped 15 points, losing to Chelsea, United and Southampton and tying with Spurs, Man City and Liverpool. To stress the importance of games against these teams – if (I recognize that it’s a big if) we had won all of these games then we would be on top with 57 points – 8 points clear of Chelsea who would only have 49 points.

Games against Top 8
GP W D L GF GA GD Pts
Chelsea 8 4 3 1 15 9 6 15
Man C 8 4 2 2 15 9 6 14
Man U 8 4 2 2 10 6 4 14
Tottenham 8 4 1 3 12 15 -3 13
Arsenal 9 3 3 3 11 12 -1 12
Southampton 9 3 1 5 9 12 -3 10
Liverpool 7 2 1 4 10 14 -4 7
West Ham 7 2 0 5 8 12 -4 6

Our record in the last 10 games is surprisingly strong having gained  22 out of 30 points we are exceeded only by Manchester City who have gained 23 points having lost only once to Arsenal.

Last 10 Games
GP W D L GF GA GD Pts
Man C 10 7 2 1 21 9 12 23
Arsenal 10 7 1 2 19 10 9 22
Man U 10 6 3 1 17 5 12 21
Chelsea 10 6 2 2 21 11 10 20
Tottenham 10 6 2 2 16 13 3 20
Liverpool 10 6 3 1 16 9 7 21
West Ham 10 5 3 2 15 9 6 18
Southampton 10 5 1 4 13 10 3 16

The final tables show the remaining games for the top 8 teams.

Chelsea Man City Saints Man U
Man City H Chelsea A Swansea H Leicester H
Aston Villa A Hull H QPR A West Ham A
Everton H Stoke A West Ham H Burnley H
Burnley H Newcastle H Liverpool H Swansea A
Leicester A Liverpool A WBA A Sunderland H
West Ham A Leicester H Crystal P H Newcastle A
Southampton H Burnley A Chelsea A Tottenham H
Hull A WBA H Burnley H Liverpool A
Stoke H Crystal P A Everton A Aston Villa H
QPR A Man United A Hull H Man City H
Man United H West Ham H Stoke A Chelsea A
Arsenal A Aston Villa H Tottenham H Everton A
Crystal P H Tottenham A Sunderland A WBA H
Liverpool H QPR H Leicester A Crystal P A
WBA A Swansea A Aston Villa H Arsenal H
Sunderland H Southampton H Man City A Hull A

 

Arsenal Tottenham West Ham Liverpool
Aston Villa H WBA A Liverpool A West Ham H
Tottenham A Arsenal H Man Utd H Everton A
Leicester H Liverpool A Southampton A Tottenham H
Crystal P A West Ham H Tottenham A Southampton A
Everton H QPR A Crystal P H Man City H
QPR A Swansea H Chelsea H Burnley H
West Ham H Man United A Arsenal A Swansea A
Newcastle A Leicester H Sunderland H Man United H
Liverpool H Burnley A Leicester A Arsenal A
Burnley A Aston Villa H Stoke H Newcastle H
Sunderland H Newcastle A Man City A Hull A
Chelsea H Southampton A QPR A WBA A
Hull A Man City H Burnley H QPR H
Swansea H Stoke A Aston Villa A Chelsea A
Man United A Hull H Everton H Crystal P H
WBA H Everton A Newcastle A Stoke A

To date it’s been one of our worst seasons under Arsene Wenger but we remain in strong contention to retain our place in the CL for the nineteenth consecutive season. The last two games against Stoke and City have arguably been our best of the season winning both while scoring 5 and keeping two clean sheets, not surprisingly this coincided with the return of many of our walking wounded.

There are 320 games remaining in 2014/2015 Premier League season but I feel that the top 4 places will be determined by as few as the following 13 games.

Chelsea vs Man City – Jan 31st.

Arsenal vs Tottenham  – Feb 2nd.

Liverpool vs Tottenham – Feb 10th.

Chelsea vs Southamton – Mar 15th.

Man U vs Tottenham – Mar 15th

Man U vs Man City – Apr 11th.

Chelsea vs Man U – Apr 18th.

Arsenal vs Chelsea – Apr 25th

Southampton vs Tottenham – Apr 25th.

Tottenham vs Man City – May 2nd.

Liverpool vs Man U – Mar 22nd.

Man U vs Arsenal – May 16th.

Man City vs Southampton – May 24th.

GunnerN5

 

 

 

Advertisements

98 Responses to The Premier League race to qualify for the 2016 Champions League.

  1. Eddie says:

    Benzema to join us!!

    Need to chew on the post, back later

  2. Rasp says:

    Thanks GN5, a very well researched post from the blog world’s premier stato 🙂

    Looking at the run of games and also how we fared in the remaining equivalent fixtures ahead, I see no reason why we can’t finish 3rd. If the chavs beat City, there is even a chance of 2nd.

    We don’t want to take to the pitch with that kind of mind set though.

    Choose any of the following clichés ……

    One game at a time
    The next game is always the most important
    It’s the same 3 points, doesn’t matter who you’re playing
    We’re only concentrating on ourselves
    etc etc

  3. RA says:

    GN5,

    You never let us down? 🙂

    I love the welter of stats and information that you have at your finger tips with which to fascinate us.

    It seems to me that we could and really should get 3rd this season, but that is by no means certain, and remaining outside the top 4 is of course also a distinct possibility.

    You are probably right that the Chavs have the Premier League sewn up, but the old romantic in me thinks that even now, depending on how the boss finishes his January buying spree, we could even challenge for the top spot ourselves – especially if Maureen, that despicable shit, talks himself and his team into trouble.

    Sorry for the description of Moaniho, that is not my normal way, but he is the only manager who gets under my skin. Big time!

  4. RC78 says:

    Excellent post!

    The top 2 race is over…that’s for sure…It s going to be a battle of the oligarchs / gasmasters between Chelski and Manshitty…Tough luck for us. Except if Manshitty switches its focus to Chamions League…

    The 3rd and 4th place are up for grab for sure.

    – Southampton’s team is thin but they do not have to play many matches but they rely on 4 players and if any of them is injured for more than 2-3 games, they will struggle…I think they are aiming for 4th but will be happy with 5th.

    – Man Utd – fantastic squad on paper but still not gelling on the pitch with defensive frailties creeping up regularly. LVG also wants to finish Top 4 and win a Cup so I think that they will aim for the 3rd place and definitely have the squad to do so. However – it will be tight and they have a rather tough schedule but with the deep squad they have, expect them to finish 3rd…

    – Arsenal – squad looking stronger with the addition of a CB (when is the deal going to be announced!), the return of key players (Ramsey, Ozil, Walcott) and the sudden emergence to form of others (Coquelin, Rosicky). Still in the CL and in the FA Cup with a team that needs more steel in midfield. However, things are looking up and our calendar is not that bad. We will make a push for 3rd but will be happy with 4th and a Cup win…

    – Tottenham – the team in form and I think our strongest opponent for Top 4 with Liverpool. Kane and Lamela doing great and defensively, they are mostly solid so the ones to watch. Tough calendar though for them so I expect them to finish just outside the top 4…usal story?

    – Liverpool – well this team is also a mystery defensively but when they play as a team, they are rock solid and fluid and with Sturridge back, they will be a massive Top 4 contender. It will solely depend on 5 players form for them: Skrtl – Gerrard, Henderson – Sterling – Sturridge. If these guys are playing well, they will be a handful…Calendar is tough as well but nothing to play except EPL.

    My predictions:

    Chelsky – Manshitty – Manure – AFC – Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton

  5. RC78 says:

    Suarez to be approached this summer by AFC – Imagine: Sanchez, Giroud, Suarez…

    Real Madrid to sell Benzema this summer to fund a move for Sterling and Kane. In this scenario, Benzema would join Liverpool and I like the player a lot but he is more suited to Liverpool than us especially if Sturridge stays at Liverpool…

  6. LB says:

    My guess is that Arsenal will confirm the Gabriel deal at the last minute of the window.

    If they announced it before the spoilt children part of our support, the ones that wear black scarves and all, would start demanding yet another new player.

  7. LB says:

    Kane to Real Madrid.

    That is funny.

  8. RC78 says:

    LB – I know right but that is the rumour…

  9. Rasp says:

    Suarez to Arsenal in the summer – now that’s what I call a rumour. Oddly I could see it happening unless he has a blistering end to the season with Barca.

  10. RC78 says:

    Liverpool to sign Lavezzi from PSG against 19 Mln EUR + bonuses…Ideally for my home team, we should buy Cuadrado, Januzaj, Schurrle, Reuss or Sterling….to replace Lavezzi…

  11. GoonerB says:

    Thanks GN5, great stats. I am in the we can’t beat Chelski to the league this year and notice they have a few games they can do us a favour in. We have one of the (if not the) best run in of those teams on paper but we mustn’t get complacent with that. Looking at it the 2nd to last game away at Utd could be a real humdinger.

  12. GoonerB says:

    Rasp, did Barca sell Suarez to Real without us knowing? 🙂

  13. Rasp says:

    Ha ha GB, I meant Barca – honest 🙂

  14. RC78 says:

    Suarez is not keen to leave Barca but if his form does not improve, Barca will sell him instead of Pedro this summer

  15. Rasp says:

    I’ve edited myself so now GoonerB’s comment looks silly 🙂

    RC78, presumably Barca’s ban on transfers is going to make the movement of players out of the club unlikely?

  16. chas says:

  17. RC78 says:

    Rasp – they need cash wince they are also cutting ties with Qatar Foundation and they have given a bumper deal to Messi, Neymar and Suarez so I think they will sell high-prized assets in terms of players and they will let some players go with short contracts as well to keep their wage bills down so expect:

    – Suarez or Pedro to leave;
    – Diego Alves, Sergio and Affelay to leave as well.

  18. Rasp says:

    Hmmm, it could just happen then?

    I thought they paid circa £70m for Suarez, surely we wouldn’t go that high – although we know Arsene is a fan?

  19. chas says:

    Thanks for the post, GN5.
    It’s going to go to the wire by the looks of it.

    I know you haven’t asked a question but I think I’ll still plead the fifth amendment. 🙂

    Choosing one of Rasp’s cliches seems a sensible option.
    ‘The next game is always the most important’, I’ll go for.

  20. mickydidit89 says:

    GN5

    Fantastic, and some mouth watering duels ahead. At this point in time, despite being 5th, our fate is in our own hands as win enough and top four it will be.

    I don’t think Southampton will crack, although oddly enough, if Chavs beat City, I can see them giving up.

  21. mickydidit89 says:

    Bloody well hope we sign that bloke today, so that I can annoy LB for three days solid 🙂

  22. GunnerN5 says:

    I recognize that “stat” type posts are not everybody’s cup of tea, so I thank those who were gracious enough to comment.

    We always seem to find a way to sneak in the back door of the CL places and I see no reason why that should not happen for the nineteenth season in a row.

    1st place seems to be locked up by Chelsea, Man City are only 9 points ahead of us, Southampton only 3 points and Man U a mere single point.

    With the return of Walcott, Ramsey, Rosicky, Ozil, Monreal, Arteta, Gnabry and Ospina we are considerably stronger and AW is in the envious position of having a wealth of talent at his disposal. Plus we have Wilshere, Welbeck and Debuchy still to come back.

    We may also have added some steel to our defense – if we ever announce the signing of Gabriel.

  23. RC78 says:

    GN5 – At best, I believe we will do 4th place + Cup. At worse, 5th place….

  24. chas says:

  25. chas says:

  26. mickydidit89 says:

    Crikey GN5

    Just gone back to look at City’s games
    Lose this weekend away to Chavs and how motivated will they be away to Utd, Liverpoool and Tottenham, to say nothing of the Stokes and Swansea’s away

  27. mickydidit89 says:

    Chas
    That’s a Pugdog with Mesut. One for Eddie?

  28. Rasp says:

    Nah, too big for a pug, I think its an English Bulldog

  29. chas says:

    Well spotted dog number 2.

  30. chas says:

  31. chas says:

  32. chas says:

  33. chas says:

  34. GunnerN5 says:

    I liked this piece in Sport Telegraph – it shows that Chapman had a ruthless side to his character. It’s from an article on the best 100 moments in the history of the FA Cup.

    ……………………………………………………………………………………..

    97. Walsall beat Herbert Chapman’s Arsenal, 1933 – Struggling in the third division, Walsall inflicted on the team that was to be crowned champions that season what was reckoned, at the time, to be the biggest upset in Cup history. But it was what happened after the game that indicates quite how humiliated the Gunners were by the defeat. Walsall’s second goal came after Tommy Black, a young reserve, had hacked at an opponent in the area, giving away a penalty. On the train back to London, Herbert Chapman (pictured) demanded Black’s boots from him and told him he had so let down the club he would never again play for Arsenal. The next week, the luckless defender was transferred to Plymouth Argyle.

  35. LB says:

    It’s grim up north.

  36. mickydidit89 says:

    LB
    It’s downhill all the way home if that helps 🙂

  37. jnyc says:

    Good detailed post n5. I say we get third, and second in this scenario. .. Chelsea beat man city this weekend, and the wheels start to come off for them. Dissension among their spoiled overpaid players, pressure on pellegrini…and it would be funny because we would be mostly responsible for really starting their slide. ..
    If they draw or win, you still never know, but we will take third, with, i agree tottenham the biggest threat of those involved. .

  38. jnyc says:

    And some of these transfer rumours are getting silly.

  39. Bayonne Jean says:

    Reports are that Arteta’s been extended for an additional year.

    That’s good news; he is, like TR7, the consummate “club pro”, and it’s beneficial to have a couple of those types on your side. His skills and versatility, while different from those of Rosicky’s, are useful and can be plugged in when you have a busy fixture schedule to contend with. And, as a seasoned veteran, he can go without games but when called upon will be ready to contribute.

    As far as the captaincy goes, based on AW’s pronouncements on the topic (e.g., “We have eleven captains”) I don’t think AW gives a toss and will just keep things as they are. I do think, though, that AW has a lot of respect for Mikel and sees him slotting into a coaching position down the road.

    Also don’t think that his extension would preclude AW from signing the desired DM, as he recognizes that Arteta will likely be more of a utility jack of all trades midfielder rather than a pure DM alternative.

    Lastly, on where Arsenal will finish in the table: agree that first place this season is a (Stamford) bridge too far, but if the mercenaries of the northern oilers lose this week to Chavs, I can envision a “look out below” tumble from them. Also, every other contending side is flawed, so second is not out of the question.

  40. Eddie says:

    silly rasp, pug is on his right 🙂 that’s an old photo, but very complementary to Ozil

  41. Bayonne Jean says:

    It’s official; Gabriel’s a Gooner. Always good to have an archangel on your side.

  42. Rasp says:

    Micky has got his way, Paulista confirmed by Stuart McFarlane

    Eddie, I see now, a pug one side and bulldog the other 🙂

  43. Rasp says:

  44. chas says:

  45. mickydidit89 says:

    I care about top four bamboozle

    I plan to go to Madrid very soon. You, on the hand, aren’t. Happily 🙂

    And then next year, I want to go to St Petersburg, Barcelona and Lisbon.

  46. fatgingergooner says:

    New defender signed, happy days!

    Apparently new deals for Arteta and Campbell, both of which surprised me a little.

  47. Big Raddy says:

    Bamboozle = Sniffer

  48. wally says:

    If we’d just won a couple of the games we should have won, i.e Swansea, Manure, and Stoke, and Leicester we’d be right in the thick of it.
    I’m glad to acquire the brazilian. I commend wenger for getting it done and not dithering (for a change). Let’s hope it works out.

  49. Rasp says:

    Hooray …..

  50. Eddie says:

    hooray indeed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! that was so blatently wrong that they could not ignore it!!!

    Bring back death penalty!!!!

    Paulista 🙂 already looking better with our shirt on his back

  51. rhyle says:

    Good read, as always, GN5. I love a stat, me 😀

    Some interesting comments, too. Thoughts for the day are that Spurs must have a VERY special relationship with Real Madrid if they’ve convinced them to sign Kane…as good a season as he’s having…Gabriel signing is good news, although I’ve no real impression of him in the couple of games I’ve seen him play I wasn’t really looking out for him – but he’s the kind of bent nosed, intimidating looking CB we’ve missed since Keown hung up his clogs!

    Good to see Costa (hopefully) get his comeuppance – although can’t believe he’s got away with the Skrtel one, looked just as intentional as the Çan stamp – he’s only got eyes for Skrtel’s leg.

    Also happy that MA8 and Joel have signed new contracts…I hate players walking out on a free…

  52. The Cockie Monster says:

    Great stuff GN5 !.

    However, there is one stat out of all your hard work that really grinds on me !.

    1st Chelsea . P 22….52 points.

    This time last season !
    1st Arsenal, P22….51 points.

    Do any of you ( and I doubt there`s any chav that does ! ) think the Chavs will buckle under pressure and drop down to 4th like we did ?.
    How many thought we would hold on to 1st at this stage last season ?…..not me for sure !….I predicted the fall !….mainly due to our mental block when playing any of …Manshafter, Mansour City or Chavs and Wengers tactical brain when playing the afore mentioned !…………..Yes, we just beat Mansour City…..on the advise of his players !. 🙂
    Chavs have something we don’t have and I wished we had it, whatever it is !…….luck?……better tactics ?……coach manager ?…..better players ?.
    Hopefully, next season we can give them a run for their money…………….money !!…..maybe I should have added that to the previous sentence !. 🙂

  53. jnyc says:

    Not thrilled about arteta extension. Rather see coquelin and a new face there. This means no new dm, and less playing time for le coq, which means he will probably leave, because hes not stupid.
    Not enough spots for all these midfielders. and i really like Mikel as a leader, but prefer it more in the clubhouse than on the pitch going forward.

  54. arnie says:

    lovely stuff, GN5. 🙂 The best stats post on AA in a long time. 🙂

    if I was upbeat before the post, more so now. COYG. 3rd spot should be ours, and with some bad luck to others, maybe even 2nd. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  55. arnie says:

    Gabriel is fantastic news, from whatever I can see. 🙂

    Arteta. one year extension is also good IMO, only one year. we need some continuity. 🙂

    I can see Arsene gunning for a striker in the summer. 🙂 But, Suarez? hmmm.

  56. LB says:

    I am definitely in the, you can’t have enough strikers, camp but I cannot see any reason why Wenger would feel that we need another striker — unless you envisage Giroud leaving, can’t see that myself.

  57. LB says:

    Wally

    Do you really think that Wenger has anything to do with the final stages of a players contract negotiations?

    Dithering………….really?

  58. LB says:

    I think that many of us are being way too presumptuous in assuming that Coquelin will be with us next season.

  59. jnyc says:

    Lb, like i said, i love the way he’s played in dm since coming back, i want him with us, but, if he doesnt get the starts he deserves, he may leave.
    I dont blame him if he does. He is earning that position through hard work and performance, the proof is that we’ve offered him a new contract, so it’s obvious to the club and Arsene how well he’s doing. Sorry to arteta and flamini.

  60. arnie says:

    LB. Despite having many MFs in the team, Arsene got us two top classy toys, Ozil and Sanchez, in consecutive years.

    I can see him trying to get a top-bill striker. But whether that is Suarez I have my doubts. 🙂

  61. arnie says:

    what a pity abouts Spuds progressing. not even ET! sad. very very sad. 😦

  62. arnie says:

    what a pity. awake until 2AM, and no motning batner! 😦

  63. chas says:

    What a pity, sad, very sad about spuds and chavs at wemberlee.

    Who shall we support in the League Cup final?
    (beware bad language)

  64. chas says:

  65. LB says:

    Arnie

    Here’s the thing: Sanchez is not a midfielder.

  66. mickydidit89 says:

    Oh Lordy

    A striker debate between LB and Arnie

    LB thinks we’re chocker block with strikers
    Arnie thinks Sanchez is a midfielder

    Hopes for a happy conclusion are not high 🙂

  67. mickydidit89 says:

    And a belated Goot Motning

    Chas Love the subs bench 🙂

  68. mickydidit89 says:

    Can we assume there is a waiting post?
    Just seem to recall many volunteers

  69. Morning all

    chas are you about? I seem to have blocked myself from the photos in your post, can you email them again please

  70. Eddie says:

    well done peaches 🙂 blocked yourself, how do you do that?

  71. mickydidit89 says:

    Hooray…the Brighton post

  72. chas says:

    I wouldn’t hold your breath.

  73. Eddie says:

    Raddy – The Danes are famous for exporting beer, bacon, Lego — and now sperm! Thousands of European women buy sperm over internet from Denmark 🙂

  74. mickydidit89 says:

    What’s our new defenders name?

    AFC Website says Gabriel Paulista.

    Wiki says: Gabriel Armando de Abreu, known as Gabriel Paulista or simply Gabriel, is a Brazilian footballer who plays for English club Arsenal as a central defender

    What will be on his shirt?

  75. Eddie says:

    Fly Emirates 🙂

  76. mickydidit89 says:

    Eddie
    Well there’s an idea for a secondary income if things go tits up 🙂

  77. mickydidit89 says:

    Mind you, how does the pricing work
    Per Kilo or per sperm

  78. Rasp says:

    Morning all 😛

    1. Wenger is not responsible for sorting contracts or any delays caused
    2. Sanchez is a striker, but not a target man type striker – more of a Messi than a Giroud
    3. Thanks for the clip of Lee Bowyer chas – what a complete turd … and Robbie Savage outdid him in fouling!!!
    4. Unfortunately I have to want the chavs to win the final. A win for them wouldn’t mean that much, the spuds would think they’d won the world cup, they’d write a song, record an album, produce numerous DVD’s and beatify all the players.

  79. Rasp says:

    Let’s hope Gabriel isn’t an angel on the pitch eh micky 😆

  80. Eddie says:

    kilo of course 🙂

    Tottenham for me, less interviews with smiling nut-nut Mourinho

  81. mickydidit89 says:

    Rasp

    Here’s the solution

    We devalue the competition just before the final by declaring our intention to not bother entering next years’ tournament as we wish to focus on the real prizes

  82. chas says:

    It’ll be Gabriel on his shirt.
    Apparently the Paulista bit refers to San Paulo where he comes from.

    I was just listening to the radio about the Danish sperm donations. Women can’t choose from a photo of the donor, but can choose things like eye colour and height. I’d imagine the ideal height would be 6 foot. Mertesacker or Cazorla height, maybe not.
    Eyes would definitely be black. 🙂

  83. mickydidit89 says:

    Eddie
    Visit the farm next door and secure a few barrels of the stuff from the bull
    Cash in quick with volume sales
    9 months later when the terrible truth becomes apparent, I’ll be in Brazil in a very nice beach side house

  84. Tap your fingers for a while as peaches is having a techno challenging morning ……….. 😉

  85. chas says:

    Minimum donation a kilo.
    Better get working.

  86. mickydidit89 says:

    Ok Chas
    Message received. The Bull is 6′ 2″ with blue eyes

  87. Rasp says:

    I’ve unzipped the pics peaches and emailed them to you ….

  88. Eddie says:

    Blue eyes and no bodily hair

  89. Too much faffing ………… gonna use Eddie’s post and sort chas’ for tomorrow.

  90. chas says:

    Mine’s better for a quiet Friday when no-one’s around anyway.

  91. We have a New Post ……………………..

  92. chas says:

    Right, off swimming.
    Looking forward to the incendiary post for when I return.

  93. Alex says:

    Foosball is played at many different places; homes, schools and arcades.
    You might even be able to find pictures or posters with a games theme
    on them, to add to your theme. The first thought should be about the types of
    games and equipment you intend to put in your room.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: