There has been a theme running through the comments section of Arsenal Arsenal recently to the effect that in our pursuit of a top four place we are more likely to overtake Chelsea than the Spuds. I fear that might be wrong.
The Chavs, so the argument goes, are in a state of backroom disarray, with a manager who is hated by the supporters, unloved by the owner and who knows he’s leaving at the end of the season.
They are also still in two cup competitions (the FA Cup and the No-hoper Cup) and it’s possible that Rafa Benitez – who is undoubtedly thinking hard about his next job – cares more about getting one of those cups on his CV rather than scraping fourth in the league.
To cap it all, it’s worth remembering that the Chavs were only the sixth best team in the EPL last season (even though they claimed the dubious honour of becoming the worst team ever to win the Champions League).
The Spuds, on the other hand, are generally agreed to have put together a decent squad and look to have a sense of purpose under Andre Villas-Boas. And with Gareth Bale they have a player who can get them out of trouble when things are not clicking.
True, their talismanic simian is out with an injured paw, but it seems he may be back in time for their next league fixture.
Concensus conclusion: if we can keep our form going we have a better chance of overtaking the Chavs than the Spuds.
However, that theory does not take recent form into account.
The form table for the Premier League for the last six games looks like this:
Despite Chelsea’s apparent problems behind the scenes and a couple of embarrassing defeats, they are clearly on a decent run of form. Crucially, when they don’t lose they tend to win rather than draw.
The Spuds, meanwhile, are 10th in the Form Table behind clubs including Southampton and Wigan. They have the same points haul from the last six games as four of the teams above them – but the “goals for and against” drops them to 10th – and that is also relevant for the run-in: they are scoring fewer and letting in more than the teams around them in the form table.
If you want to be brutal, you would say that all the signs are in place for the ancient N17 springtime tradition known as “the late season choke.” I don’t necessarily buy into that theory, but I do feel the Spuds have the harder challenge.
What the Form Table suggests to me is that the Chavs have more momentum than the Spuds and will continue to stay ahead of them. I expect them to narrowly beat the Lily-Livereds when the two teams get round to playing their postponed fixture.
Therefore I think it will be harder for us to overtake our Blue rivals than our White ones.
Of course it’s going to require a hell of a lot of consistency and focus from Arsenal to overtake either in the run-in.
And while it’s gratifying to see us in second place in the Form Table, the table also highlights some cause for concern: Fulham are on a fine run and one of our remaining away games is at the Cottage; and Wigan – a team that only ever seem to be galvanised by an end of season relegation battle – are also doing well and are yet to come to the Emirates.
This is not meant as a “prediction piece”. The only thing I will predict with confidence is that there will be many more surprise results and twists and turns before the thing is done.
I feel we have a chance of getting third, but – if we qualify for next year’s Champions League – it is more likely to be in fourth place at the expense of one of our London competitors. And I believe that it’s more likely that the team to slip to fifth in those circumstances would be the Spuds, not the Chavs.
What do you think?
RockyLives

Posted by RockyLives 






Arsenal News 24/7
