Who will win the 2016/17 Premier League?

We are close to 60% of the way through the season having played 22 out of the 38 games.

It is the closest we have seen the league in many years with the top 6 teams separated by 14 points but the 2nd to 6th places by only 6 points.

The remaining schedule for each of the top 6 is shown below.

gn1

gn3

Can anybody beat Chelsea to 1st place?

GunnerN5

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70 Responses to Who will win the 2016/17 Premier League?

  1. Big Raddy says:

    GN5 Thank you

    IMO No. Chavs are nailed on.

    I am concerned that we still have to play Chavs, L’pool and Spurs away. If we get anything I will be pleasantly surprised.

    I fear Spurs will finish second given their easier run-in.

    OK. That is enough reality. We are going to be unbeaten until season’s end and take the title at home to Everton with BFG scoring the winner.

  2. VP of Oz says:

    I’m hoping history repeats as per earlier this season where Chelsea suffer 2 consecutive defeats to Liverpool and then Arsenal. That would be grand…

  3. VP of Oz says:

    btw, how is Totenham playing Liverpool away on the same day Man City play Liverpool…

  4. chas says:

    Cheers, GN5.

    It’s definitely Chelsea’s to lose.
    They’ve been so consistent since we smashed them out of the park in September.

    All I can cling on to is the hope that they might falter given a few crucial injuries.
    Oh, and when the rest of the League realises that Sideshow Bob is a very poor defender.

  5. Red Arnie says:

    Nice one, GN5. 🙂 Head says NO, heart says YES, the Arsenal. You never know, but unlikely.

    Raddy’s speculation will surely bring nightmares.

  6. Red Arnie says:

    Nice SkySports find, Chas. 🙂 Just made my day.

  7. Red Arnie says:

    Sorry, LB, knot ear yesterday. But fine post, and three observations that I draw from it.

    1. Before the Burnley game, EFF had scored in each of his previous nine starts for Arsenal in all competitions, scoring 11 goals in total. If he had scored against Burnley, it would have been a record, and that would have stolen the sand from under the feet of the serial apologists. But we love them, so I am happy that he did not. Nervertheless, some stat while starting for Arsenal, it has to be said. Hats off! 🙂

    2. So, everyone’s favourite Xhaka is now public enemy no. 1. Talk of fickle fans! Seriously though, how do you teach a grown up man how to tackle properly.

    3. Well done Arsene Wenger! Can someone bring a charge against teh officials for not following procedures in the tunnel?

  8. LB says:

    I think it is far easier to teach someone to tackle than it is to teach accuracy of pass or even more importantly close control. Xhaka has both of those and at 24 I see no reason why he can’t still improve his tackling, moreover, there is still time for him to not only become a firm favorite but even captain in the future.

    I think it is understandable that fans are annoyed with him, that tackle was a school boy error, try and imagine if Joey Barton had made that tackle and the fuss we would have made.

  9. LB says:

    For us to win the league we will have to do something that we haven’t done in years and that is win the big games.

    As a fan I naturally hope that happens but as a sane adult I have my doubts.

  10. GunnerN5 says:

    VP – Thank you for pointing out my error – I notice that the spreadsheet became self correcting 🙂 🙂

    Thanks Chas.

  11. GunnerN5 says:

    My feelings for Arsenal make me a believer until it is mathematically impossible, but my logical self tells it that the odds of winning it are far too low.

  12. GunnerN5 says:

    When you boil it all down we have to win 3 more games than Chelsea with 16 games left – so all is possible if Chelsea suffer a dip in form.

  13. Rasp says:

    Thanks GN5, it looks like our run-in is the most difficult. I agree with LB, we would need to win the big games and the chavs to slip up badly to have any chance of winning the league.

    At this stage, my focus is on finishing above the swamp dwellers .. and top 4 of course.

    If I get carried away, another CL final would be nice 🙂

  14. Red Arnie says:

    Yes, LB. 🙂

    Rasp, first time CL trophy will be nicer. 🙂

  15. Red Arnie says:

    We always think our competitors are going to slip up somewhere somehow. The puzzle for me is how did Leics manage to avoid it last year, and how have Chavs managed to do it so far this year. What are they doing better that we are not! 🙂

  16. Big Raddy says:

    Red. I know this is boring but the answer is injuries. Leicester didn’t have them, we did.

    We have lost Santi which is a huge blow. Theo, Danny, BFG +++

  17. Red Arnie says:

    Raddy. Yes, sadly yes.

  18. GunnerN5 says:

    These are our current injuries.

    Santi Cazorla Achilles 19 Oct 2016
    Mathieu Debuchy Hamstring 27 Nov 2016
    Theo Walcott Calf Strain 23 Dec 2016
    Kieran Gibbs Knee (non-specified) 26 Dec 2016

    It’s not as bad as some other seasons but it is significant that Santi was a major influence prior to his injury and he has been sorely missed. However it’s not been nearly as bad as we’ve had before and I don’t think we can use that as a valid reason for our terrible performances, in recent game we have been awful in the 1st half and then turned on the style in the 2nd half.

  19. Eddie says:

    In a nutshell – nope. Very, very unfortunately in all likelihood they will cruise to claim the league again with a few games remaining.

    We have the toughest schedule, Tottenham the easiest. We will need all the wits about us to stay in top four.

    Or, which is my prefered option – finish in top 6 and play in Europe cup, possibly win it.

    Next season with a new manager is going to be even tougher, time to ask yourself if it is worth it being a gunner

  20. Eddie says:

    Micky – difficult situation with your in-law amongst the angry wimin, otherwise known as ladies wearing comfortable shoes.

    I’m undecided, angry wimin moved the world forward, unquestionably. Their pussys being grabbed by the likes of Trump being an unpleasant experience is highly likely. Gorgeous Faye White … all of that against meek, docile ladies in floral dresses, or those with plastic tits planning on marrying rich…I’m an angry wimin type and i won’t apologise for that,

    Is the protester married to your sister?

  21. Eddie says:

    Did Wenger really call a spade a spade? Or in other words the ref a fooking cheat? Fantastc

  22. Red Arnie says:

    Eddie. Next season, new manager. wow! great news. how did I miss this piece of news? who is the chosen one? Bonkers? van(G)dal? Ljungberg?

  23. Big Raddy says:

    Eddie. There is nothing better than being a Gunner.

    Is life plain sailing? Would it be better without the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune? Of course not. Ying and Yang etc etc

  24. Eddie says:

    Arnie – i cannot tell you, soz. But it’s from a very reliable source, watch this space

  25. Zed says:

    A very nice spreadsheet, GN5, but no surprises there. 🙂

  26. GoonerB says:

    Thanks GN5. An educated mathematical guess would say that we need 12 wins and 4 draws to win the EPL with 2 of the 12 wins being Chavs and Spuds as a necessity. This would give us 87 points (roughly the average winning tally over the last number of years) and having won the 6 pointers at Chavs and Spuds would give us a good chance of being champions, although it would still not guarantee Chavs will drop below 87 even if we beat them.

    Arnie asked what Chavs are doing better? I don’t believe the injuries are the biggest factor this year,although I will not completely discount them. Chavs found a winning formation that played to the strengths of their key players and team as a whole and stuck with it.

    AW constantly changes the dynamics of the set up and has players in position A in one game and B in another, disrupting the instinctive fluid development of the teams playing style, and we end up with disjointed performances that don’t match the quality of the team on paper.

    It has been a regular theme for the last 4 years at least and still is. In the last few games AW has revisited some line ups (or very similar at least) that have proven ineffective in the past and moved away from what was working and I just think he can’t help himself. AW is the new tinkerman. The old one eventually stopped tinkering and stuck with a winning formula and won the EPL last year.

  27. Red Arnie says:

    Eddie. I’m watching the space. 🙂 I’m actually a bit wary it may be van(d)al, who is looking for a job. somehow that thought scares me a little bit.

    GB. Fair call as well. 🙂 True, we like to be different, but maybe our current personnel are not entirely suited to this chip-n-change-formation style. Perhaps.

  28. Red Arnie says:

    Why vandal? so that he may team up with bonkers, and recreate the Dutch national team from some years back. just a thought. perhaps worth a short post for a rainy day.

  29. GoonerB says:

    Arnie, I find it a real shame that AW has not adapted his thinking enough to win a final EPL and cement his legacy with style. I think it has been there for him to win as well but I am sorry to say that I feel a lack of acceptance to a few small changes in his practices have hampered him.

    He will not be easy to replace and I expect a potential downturn in fortunes for a temporary period unless we can secure one of the big boys (not the dutch one with the last fish in Billingsgate market look). Change must happen however because we are punching below our weight IMO over the last few years despite the constancy of the top 4.

  30. GoonerB says:

    Sorry all, finished being pessimistic now, you can all come back 🙂

    Oi Chas, I saw your cheeky comment at 11.19am on Sunday. Lucky some muppet down the pub warned me about it so I could prepare myself, otherwise I could have taken serious offence 🙂

  31. Akintops says:

    Nothing is impossible at this point. 16 games to play so no conclusion yet. GUNNERS FOR LIFE!!!

  32. oz gunner says:

    Jesus! That is a miserable run home. Normally when we are this far off I like to pretend in my head that we have an easier draw so that we are shoe in to win it all.

    Very selfish of you GN5.

    Here’s hoping pool and city fall in a hole so at the very least we finish in the top 4. I’d say Totts, but we know they will…

    i hope…

  33. Red Arnie says:

    dont mind a few turbulent years, GB, but wish it is not one of the big boys. rather someone who is not big at the moment, but will do big things with us and become big in the process. we want new ideas. someone who will be willing to experiment.

  34. Red Arnie says:

    oz. “i hope” 🙂

  35. Big Raddy says:

    Morning All,

    New manager discussion? List on one … Pocchetino. 🙂

  36. Eddie says:

    No chance raddy, spuds adore him

    This is what pisses me off – how many times we discussed a replacement for Wenger and ending the discussions with conclusions that all the best managers are spoken for. So how the 2 dispensable units discovered Pochettino and Conte?

  37. Big Raddy says:

    Eddie. It is a joke.

    I would take him purely to piss off the Totts.

    There is a truism which goes “the grass is always greener”. We have one of the best managers in the world, if he is to be replaced we will get another one.

  38. Eddie says:

    Very funny ha ha ha

    Wenger is 2 players short of being the best

  39. Eddie says:

    Arsenal midfielder Granit Xhaka has been interviewed under caution by police following an allegation he racially abused an airline staff member at Heathrow on Monday

    Xhaka. I don’t often take a dislike to an Arsenal player. Xhaka is one of them though. Get rid off him arsene

  40. GoonerB says:

    Morning all.

    Eddie, right now I feel we are 1 player short of really kicking on (probably unattainable and out of our bracket anyway). We are missing this one type of player IMO but are also overstocked in other areas. The rest of our problems lie with intrinsic factors like tactics, match awareness and game management, and team set ups. Those factors have likely cost us 9 points this season already.

    Even without one said player I feel we still have the components to win the EPL right now. That extra player would be more a guarantee in the EPL, but in reality is to push us up to the level of the top clubs in Europe.

    I do like players at the senior top level to play in positions that bring out the best in them and balance the team ( as Chas will tell you 🙂 )

    I still go advocate an attacking emphasis with fluid interchange of positions of the attacking players but I feel it needs to be ( for the record 🙂 ) disciplined fluidity. Even if a wide player cuts in and a central player moves wide I still want the wide player to primarily have the attributes of a wide player, as more of their time will be spent there, and vice versa with the central player.

    I know many see Wengers line-ups recently as something that defines him and sets him apart. Something that enhances his genius. Unfortunately I see it as disjointed and chaotic and his key weakness. One could say it is (hang on just delving into room 101) shoehorning 🙂

    I have been banging this drum for about 3-4 years now so it is a massive groundhog day situation for me and an issue I don’t see going away under AW. Just my opinion and I hope to be proven wrong ( Chas 🙂 )

  41. Eddie says:

    100% agree with you GB. There us no doubt that Wenger is a great manager, but not the best. I have seen lesser team finishing above us or winning the CL too often to be fooled.

    How many of you doubt that we would have won the league this season or last season was Conte or Klopp in charge? Obviously here are no guaranties, but the gut feeling prevails that AW has reaches his max potential and is sitting there with little idea how to move up.

    It happens. I was a good programmer, but at some point of my career i had reached my peak, cleverer guys moved on to web development, I was too thick for that.

  42. Red Arnie says:

    Too much agreement. 🙂 I disagree.

    We may or may not win the League this year, but we are closer than any other team. Last year likewise, and we failed to win, and likewise for the past few years. But we are pretty close.

    If the solution is in a new manager, and it might well be so, but surely it is a manager who is fresh as a daisy. Someone with new ideas that have not been tried out elsewhere, at least not in a major club. Not tainted by their experience at other teams in the EPL or other major leagues. 🙂 Conte or Klopp or Guardiola, or similar? NO, not for me! 🙂

  43. Big Raddy says:

    GB. You make your points well.

    I am not against a change of management. I worry that we will go down the same route as the other big teams and change management every other season.

    I like the continuity of a long-term manager. My ageing brain suffers with too much change.

  44. GoonerB says:

    Arnie I think there is a difference between the Klopp’s, Conte’s and Guardiola’s who all have experience but are still youngish managers compared to the Van Gaals, Hiddinks e.t.c.

    On being close Arnie or closer than any other team I would still revisit the point I made the other day about the average points it has required to win the league over the last 10 years being over 85 points. We have been consistent but also consistently not close to this tally. Over the last 10 years we have been 14 points on average away from the average to win the league.

    To me that shows a consistency of not going backwards but we have stagnated in terms of progression as there has been none in reality. Other teams may have had blip years but then find a way or do what is needed to push back to the top. I think I would have happily suffered 2 blip years in exchange for 2 title winning years than the recent consistent top 4 but always 3-4 wins away from winning the league. The ooh ahh excitement factor has disappeared from Arsenal.

  45. Red Arnie says:

    Ideally, I should disagree, Raddy. But I dont. Oh dear! 🙂

    Yes, a new manager, an entirely new face, a clean slate to try out new things, with guaranteed continuity (within reason) for at least 5 years. 🙂

  46. GoonerB says:

    Raddy, I am really not sure whether now is the right time to change him despite all I am saying. I wonder if we need to wait 1-2 more years because all the top options moved more recently. That is when we should have looked to implement the change, when the options were becoming available but I feel we missed the boat.

    I am torn between taking a chance on a younger unproven chap or waiting till one of the top options looks like becoming available.

  47. Red Arnie says:

    GB. Do you think the likes of Klopp, Conte and Guardiola may have new ideas that they are going to try out the first time in Arsenal. Not ideas that they have experimented on elesewhere? And therefore provide us the benefits of the new intellectual property?

    If not, then it is a NO NO for me. I dont care so much about success as I care about new ideas! 🙂

  48. Red Arnie says:

    GB. I agree. Now may not be the best time, but whenever it is, that is my bliss point. 🙂

  49. chas says:

  50. chas says:

  51. chas says:

  52. GunnerN5 says:

    For the record here are the % of points won for every manager in our history. I wouldn’t swap AW for any one of them and I’ve witnessed every one going back to Tom Whittaker.
    I’m no different than any one of you – I would like to see us win the CL or PL again but I don’t want to lose AW.

    There are no other managers that could have managed his levels of achievements since our move and we have had the pleasure of watching this wonderful game how it should be played.

    Sam Hollis – 52.5%
    Thomas Brown Mitchell – 61.7%
    George Elcoat – 60.3%
    Harry Bradshaw – 62.1%
    Phil Kelso – 50.7%
    George Morrell – 47.9%
    Leslie Knighton – 45.8%
    Herbert Chapman – 60.4%
    George Allison – 58.5%
    Tom Whittaker – 58.6%
    Jack Crayston – 53.0%
    George Swindin – 51.5%
    Billy Wright – 50.3%
    Bertie Mee – 56.8%
    Terry Neill – 56.1%
    Don Howe – 52.4%
    George Graham – 55.6%
    Stuart Houston/ Bruce Rioch – 57.2%
    Arsene Wenger – 66.2%

  53. chas says:

  54. chas says:

  55. chas says:

  56. Eddie says:

    Chas at his best 🙂 I’m not going to pretend I like a bit of a temper in a gentleman, a lot of temper actually as long as it’s not directed at me

    Mesut’s admirer needs to learn about double negation in english

    Is that really a photo of Hitler on the wall? Is that legal?!

  57. Eddie says:

    @1:42 – who is taking the photo?

  58. GoonerB says:

    Sorry Arnie, i went away. You know pescy work things and all that.

    It is difficult to know exactly how each manager operates and what kind of ideas they bring to the equation because none of us have attended the training sessions they oversee or have sat in the dressing rooms when they are addressing the team.

    All of Klopp, Guardiola and Conte are about 20 years younger than AW. They are in that not too young but not too old bracket and I would have to say at a guess that they will bring different ideas and methods to their teams than AW does. Maybe not wholesale differences but subtle ones. Whether they are better or not is another question and people will have to draw their own conclusions based on how these managers perform and results.

    I also pick up on things that players who have been under these coaches say. I have heard a couple mention that AW doesn’t really coach tactics or employ them but prefers the players to work it out for themselves. Conversely I have heard players say that both Conte and Guardiola leave nothing to chance and make sure that they address all the finer details they need to.

    Personally I feel that we need more attention to detail and tactics in this modern game where the lower teams are so much fitter and more athletic that they can bridge some of the gap to a more technical team. if the more technical team is not getting their play right then they can struggle against sides they should by and large comfortably beat.

    GN5, I agree that AW is our greatest ever manager and I wouldn’t have swapped him for any other manager through his earlier tenure with us and the stadium austerity period. he has done brilliantly.

    However that is not really the angle I am coming from. I am not comparing to previous Arsenal managers or what he did from 2005 till say 2013 because there is no comparison and no-one I can think of who would have been better. I am looking at the last few years where I feel maybe his age has caught up with him to the point where he cannot get a top squad to function across a season to its full potential and other managers out there have passed him by that could potentially do better with those players.

    I separate the 2 considerations, and what I think now in the modern era has no bearing on where he stands in my estimation overall.

  59. GunnerN5 says:

    GB.

    I always appreciate your well thought out responses to comments.

    Arsenal have certainly not achieved their full potential in recent seasons 2015/16 in particular. We can all speculate on the reasons why and pretty much all ideas have been expressed here on AA. Personally I feel that it’s a simple factor of overall team consistency which we saw with Leicester last season and Chelsea this time around. I feel the players are committed and that we have the right players and skill, speed and toughness they are just not reaching their peak as a team.

    I would have them all sit together and watch videos of both Leicester and Chelsea to emphasize the importance of consistently playing at peak levels as a team and not individuals.

    All is not lost but winning the PL this season, especially with our schedule, is fast becoming a faint hope.

  60. chas says:

  61. chas says:

  62. chas says:

    Klopp – hmmmmmm.
    We’re shit and two points ahead.

  63. chas says:

    Southampton very good tonight.
    We’ll have to be on our mettle on Saturday.

  64. VP of Oz says:

    I agree Chas. I have close friends who are Liverpool supporters and every year they espouse how much better their team is than us and provide their advice on how we wont win anything again with our current manager, that we need strikers, that we have no star players etc. This, even in the Brendan Rogers years…

  65. Big Raddy says:

    Morning All,

    VP, we hear the same from Spurs fans 😀 😀

  66. Big Raddy says:

    1.44 Gives a very different picture of Fat Sam – much more appealing.

  67. Big Raddy says:

    There is a New Post

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