The Run In.

It’s difficult but certainly not impossible, is it?

Leicester Home: Average League Position 12.71

Norwich 17
West Brom 14
Newcastle 18
SOUTHAMPTON 6
WEST HAM 7
Swansea 16
Everton 11

Leicester Away: 11.6

Watford 9
Crystal Palace 13
Sunderland 19
MAN UTD 5
CHELSEA 12

Tottenham Home: 9.83

Swansea 16
ARSENAL 3
Bournemouth 15
MAN UTD 5
West Brom 14
SOUTHAMPTON 6

Tottenham Away: 12.5

WEST HAM 7
Aston Villa 20
LIVERPOOL 8
STOKE 10
CHELSEA 12
Newcastle 18

Arsenal Home: 14.83

Swansea 16
West Brom 14
Watford 9
Crystal Palace 13
Norwich 17
Aston Villa 20

Arsenal Away: 8

MAN UTD 5
TOTTENHAM 2
EVERTON 11
WEST HAM 7
Sunderland 19
MAN CITY 4

Man City Home: 10.4

Aston Villa 20
MAN UTD 5
West Brom 14
Stoke 10
ARSENAL 3

Man City Away: 13.14

Newcastle 18
LIVERPOOL 8
Norwich 17
Bournemouth 15
CHELSEA 12
SOUTHAMPTON 6
Swansea 16

Here’s the remaining fixtures and the average positions. I’ve also highlighted what I would consider the tougher looking fixtures. Looking at the fixtures you can’t really write Leicester off. They have some very winnable games and they play once a week, so a lot of it is going to come down to how they react to today’s defeat. Spurs have probably the toughest run of fixtures and are still in EL and FA Cup, so it will be interesting to see the teams they put out in those. We have very good home fixtures but very tough away ones.

We should be looking to win 6/6 of our home matches and then if we can sneak a few away results we have a great chance. City have some tough fixtures too and are still in other comps, but they are not looking good at the moment and their home form is starting to drop which is not a good sign for them.

It’s going to be an interesting end to the season though and we are definitely in with a chance if we can keep a run going.

written by FatGingerGooner

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67 Responses to The Run In.

  1. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Thanks FGG

    If, if, if City are secure top four, but out of contention, by the time we visit The Ethiad, they could be effectively on summer holidays, and if, if, if Sunderland are already safe, or relegated, by the time we have our final away fixture there, they too could be on summer hols.

    In other words, some games that look either harder, or easier on paper now, could be completely different come the moment.

  2. PV4 says:

    I think that the run-in hinges, for us, on the game at the stains. Win that, and the momentum could carry us to the title. However, Leicester only need to keep their heads and they could do it as their remaining fixtures are the easiest of the four – ours being the hardest, which makes a mockery of the favourites tag we have been labelled with.

  3. Rasp says:

    Thanks FGG, it really is OGAAT from now on. We’re all focusing on the NLD, but there is the small matter of beating manu beforehand.

    It’s gratifying that the totts away fixtures are nearly as bad as ours – Wham, pool, Stoke and chavs, and our home games are easier (on paper)

    I think the games we all play against City and the chavs could be the deciding factor in who wins the title.

  4. RC78 says:

    We have the worse run in away and the best at home.

    I think that if:

    – we win all our home fixtures (feasible given the opposition and a must if we want to land the EPL); and
    – we win against the Spurs, do not lose against Utd, City and West Ham;
    – we win against Everton and Sunderland;

    then we would have secured 30 points for a grand total of 81 points and the league should be won with 84-85 so ultimately, we need 3 to 4 points and that means winning away 2 more games (City + West Ham?)) to make sure we get the big prize…

    Not impossible but tough and to win the league, you gotta be tough.

    COYG!

    Cech – Bellerin, ?, Kos, Monreal – Ramsey, Coquelin – Ozil – ?, Giroud, Sanchez

  5. RC78 says:

    I think that against Utd, City and West Ham and if Cazorla is back:

    We will play: Ramsey, Coquelin, Cazorla in the middle and be playing more of a 4-3-1-2 with Giroud and Sanchez up front and Ozil in the pocket

  6. GoonerB says:

    Thanks FGG. As someone said the other day we may not be able to look at Leicester the same as us, Spurs and City. I wonder if their game has allowed them to be more effective against bigger sides coming on to them. As such despite their run in not looking too bad they may have it tougher than many realise and teams like Palace and West Ham may cause them more issues.

    You are right about our home games FGG. looking at Utd currently and the cloud hanging over the manager this has to be the away game to get the 3 points. It is there for the taking. After that if we can at least not lose at Spurs, while continuing to win our home games, I think we will be in a strong position.

  7. GoonerB says:

    Not so sure I would count on Santi RC. Even when declared back from injury players are often a little rusty for 3-4 games and we can’t afford any rusty players right now. Bit of a catch 22 really.

    I didn’t say too much yesterday because of the delight in the win. i too was delighted, and do feel it could be a pivotal moment, but also felt that in the cold light of day it was a decent performance, nothing else, and I personally didn’t see the stand out performances that others did from some players.

    Leicester are having a dream period currently, but when all is said and done we had to win by scoring in 94+ minutes with the last kick of the game, at home against a team that almost got relegated last year, and who had been playing with 10 men for between 1/3 and 1/2 of the game.

    Added to our performances and many results since the turn of the year, for me it still says there is something very wrong in our attack, but we keep trying the same old same old with no variation in how we balance out our attack. A team that boasts Ozil and Sanchez really shouldn’t be struggling in the attacking department.

  8. RC78 says:

    GB – I am more worried about our defense than our offense to be honest. We concede way too many chances and we are the team that made the most errors that led to shots…

    I think up front, we have the firepower needed but as you said, we should be more balanced and score more goals. I think that our system is sometimes restrictive in that sense…The major problems are:

    – our Full-backs are not providing enough assists or goal threat especially on the left side;
    – is that we do not see shots from outside the box from any players really whereas we should see more off these especially from Ox, Ramsey, Ozil and Sanchez;
    – Ramsey, Sanchez, Giroud and Walcott are being wasteful in front of goal;
    – Our CBs and DM are not scoring much on set-pieces;
    – we don’t score on direct freekicks either…

  9. RC78 says:

    someone was asking about Rabiot yesterday.

    He is a quality young player with room for improvement. He is definitely a box-to-box. He has improved his work rate and defensive contribution but sometimes he is a bit too complacent with his passing. He has a good eye for goal as well when he moves forward but don’t expect him to score more than 10 goals a year.

    He is not as good as Ramsey or a fit Wilshere.

  10. chas says:

    Cheers, FGG.

    The only game for me is Hull at home in the cup and I won’t be thinking about that until Friday.

    Ant and his 5-a-side mates have been doing a fixture prediction competition every week for years now and it shows how hard it is just to judge whether a game will be a home win, away win or draw. Factor in form, injuries, dodgy referees assigned to your matches and all of the other variables involved and it seems utterly pointless to me to even talk about games in March, let alone April or May.

    I love how Chelsea included in the away fixtures makes the average so much bigger than it might have been. 🙂

  11. GoonerB says:

    Chas I actually have a suspicion that Chelsea and Liverpool could have a say in this title. They both wobbled at times through this season, for different reasons, but both seem to be finding their mojo towards the later stages of this season, and they have the quality to beat any other top side….and we don’t have to play either of them 🙂

  12. fatgingergooner says:

    RC,

    I can’t agree with you in the total points needed. 84-85 would mean someone winning 11 of their last 12 matches and the way this season has gone I just don’t see that happening. I reckon 9-10 wins would put us in with a huge chance of winning the league. If that is the case then the matches away at City and Spurs could actually prove meaningless. However, the confidence and momentum are key factors at this time of the season so losses can very easily impact other results.

    I also think the average team position stats are pretty useless too (even though I put them on!) as Chelsea are currently in 12th and teams threatened with relegation suddenly become very tough fixtures, espescially away from home.

    As a few people have said though its OGAAT now until the end of the season and let’s not forget about the cups too!

  13. GoonerB says:

    RC, I get what you mean to a degree by the defence, but rather than it being about having poor defenders I think it is more a symptom of our play not being dominant enough going forward, and conceding possession back to the opposition, (even against the more averagely decent sides), than is traditionally normal for an Arsene Wenger team.

    The best sides in Europe don’t necessarily have better defenders than us man for man, but their overall team play and possession is more balanced and they get called into action less often.

    As an example how was it that we spent so much time defending deep against Bournemouth? Not a situation you expect a top side to be in as often as we were. It seems to me that there are aspects of the way we currently set up and play that invite teams to have possession and come onto us too much.

    I would look at this first before analysing too much each individual defensive position.

  14. RC78 says:

    GB – agree. The team is not defending well as a bloc and then when we defend or take the ball out, we make (costly) mistakes…

    Overall – I feel that we have actually regressed this year rather than progressed compared to the way we were playing as of February last year. We were much more compact at both ends of the pitch.

    Also – if it were not for Cech, we would be out of the race by now hanging out with Utd and West Ham

  15. RC78 says:

    84 gives you the title for sure
    81 gives you a good shout at it 🙂

  16. GoonerB says:

    RC, I agree with your 12.27. Cech has papered over some serious failings in this team. I agree with those that feel we wouldn’t be in a title challenging position in another season with the way we have been playing, but that doesn’t stop me wanting us to win it however we can this year. Unless serious issues are addressed however we will have problems moving into next season IMO.

    Anyway off for a bit.

  17. RC78 says:

    GB – once again agree.

    We need to address:

    Full-back position (Monreal should be at best a sub, same for Gibbs but we need a starter here and we need proper cover for Bellerin)
    CB position – we need a starter here as BFG can only be a sub
    DM position – Coquelin did well but we need another DM for cover but that has to be at least as good as Coquelin, if not better
    FW – we need another forward that adds width to our game but than also chip in assists and goals when playing centrally

    Once we have that, we are covered 🙂

    Cech – Bellerin, ?, Kos, ? – Ramsey, ? – Ozil – ?, Giroud?, Sanchez

    Ospina – ? , Chambers, Gabs, Gibbs – El Neny, Coquelin – Wilshere – Ox, Wellbeck, Walcott

    Young: Julio P, Zelalem or Bielik, Jeff, Iwobi, Akpom, Fortune

    Sell or get rid of: PiG, Jenkinson, Debuchy, BFG, Monreal, Arteta, Flamini, Rosicky, Cazorla, Campbell, Sanogo and if you Giroud is not goind to be your starter, sell him

    Get: Coleman, Garay or Pepe, Bertrand, Reuss or Aubemayang or Willian, Lukaku (if Giroud leaves)

  18. Eddie says:

    RC78 – get rid of Cazorla, Monreal, Campbell…… micky has the number for the Samatitans

  19. Eddie says:

    thanks for the post FGG, sterling work!
    on paper we have the toughest away set of games, but this season there is no such thing as an easy fixture. The only advantage Leicester have over us is 12 games v our miniumum 15.

    But we can do it, I hope. I put my AFC car reg for sale. If we win the league I’ll get more money for it 🙂

  20. RC78 says:

    Eddie – we can keep them as well. It is just that if we do not win the league, we need to strengthen and we need to sell active assets to build a better team…Cazorla is great but he is no “Ozil”, Monreal is good but we have to keep Gibbs in as he is English and then Campbell, well he is a bit of a head scratcher. He can be very good but can he be consistantly good. Would I rather invest more time in him or in Ox? I d like to invest in Ox, hence selling Campbell…

    BUT – would only suggest this if we DO NOT win the league and if we BUY BETTER players…

    otherwise, we keep those three for sure 🙂

  21. Eddie says:

    RC78 – there are no better players than Santi.

  22. MickyDidIt89 says:

    “we need to sell active assets”

    Superb, it’s like one of those CIA thrillers 🙂

  23. MickyDidIt89 says:

    RC

    I think the active asset known as OG has blown his cover and should be either eliminated or withdrawn to Langley a sap 🙂

  24. RockyLives says:

    Oo-er… everyone sounds a bit pessimistic today.

    I’m with Terry.

    The goats are stirring…

  25. Gööner In Exile says:

    As I said when FGG posted this up teams that have something to play for are better opposition than mid table teams at this stage of the season, we are facing a few tense home games I fear in Watford, WBA, Swansea and Sunderland, they will want to try to beat us on the counter, the away games are against teams that don’t traditionally sit deep at home so we will have to be fearless play on the counter and take our early chances. Overall I don’t think the team is playing badly, but we are not being efficient in front of goal.

  26. Herb's Army says:

    Hi FGG, good on you for providing a Post.
    Sometimes I drop comments in hoping someone will pick up the baton and make a Post/discussion of it, but no-one ever does.
    It’s almost as though Arsene Wenger is the perfect deity who must not be stained or tarnished with criticism.
    Even since the Emirates move and the years of ‘enforced’ austerity there are plenty of examples of managers with far less resources out-performing our untouchable one.
    Protests have quietened not because Arsenal fans suddenly want him to stay, but through the apathy of stagnation, and the Board of Directors showing no desire to raise our profile and take us where they promised, to the next level.
    Twenty years of CL football, and we’re nothing more than ‘fillers’ making the numbers up, as far away from winning it as if we weren’t in the competition at all. That isn’t the behaviour of a forward-thinking club. Ask yourself how many other big clubs in England would accept this as their lot. Whether United, City, Chelsea or Liverpool fans would want to copy our model. Three of them have actually won the CL in the last eleven years, and City will, or at least get very close, with Guardiola. Us? People laugh heartily and mockingly at the mere suggestion
    We’ve settled for being a nearly club, and as long as money is pouring in everyone’s happy.
    Like a car with it’s rear wheels stuck in the mud furiously rotating, we’re stuck in a mind-set doing the same thing year after year.
    Regardless of who we play, it’s the same tactics, uber confidence and dynamic football against those we should beat (and even that isn’t so assured more recently), but against the giants (save for the occasional one-off game, and normally when it matters little) – clubs we should regard as our peers – we retreat into our shells and behave like we’re sh*t scared.
    I confidently predicted we would win the title after the United game at the Emirates, but of course, I was ignoring Arsenal’s ability to self-implode and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like we did in 2014. We all know the reasons, but we have an untouchable deity, and so the madness goes on, unchallenged, unchanged.
    Of all the clubs playing at the top, top level, Arsenal are undoubtedly the most irrelevant. The passionate fan-base is there, but most of the other essential components are missing.
    We are a very frustrating club to support, sadly not a very exciting one.
    Maybe it’s part of a greater malaise in English football and foreign ownership, but it all feels a bit stale and flat.

  27. Gööner In Exile says:

    Swing time:

    Leicester 26 27 84
    Spuds 26 9 78
    Arsenal 26 0 75
    Watford 26 22 72
    Dippers 26 2 65
    Shitty 26 -10 65
    ManUre 26 -6 61
    Everton 26 8 61
    West Ham 26 7 57
    Orcs 26 1 56
    Chavs 26 -24 50
    Southampton 26 -9 49
    WBA 26 2 47
    Crystal Palace 26 -2 44
    Bournemouth 26 6 42
    Swansea 26 -14 37
    Norwich 26 0 35
    Sunderland 26 -6 30
    Toon 26 -12 26
    Villa 26 -14 20
  28. Big Raddy says:

    Morning All,

    I am a one game at a time man. Soothsaying is a talent I leave to the older generation like Crystals.

  29. chas says:

    You’re up early, BR.
    Working?

    Nothing Crystals likes better than to examine some entrails. 🙂

  30. chas says:

    It’s all about perspective, I suppose.

  31. chas says:

  32. Big Raddy says:

    7.22 ROLF

    6.54. My hero.

  33. Big Raddy says:

    Watched the Chelsea game last night. PSG were excellent, Chavs did their usual dull, dull, dull.

    Cavani. One chance. One goal.

    Ibra magnificent in his arrogance.

    2nd leg should be a cracker

  34. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Infinity and Beyooooooond 🙂

    Superb vid

  35. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Erik

    “Cavani. One chance. One goal”

    Like a dagger to the heart those words. Cruel and heartless is what you are, and at this hour!

  36. Eddie says:

    I refuse to laugh at any team suffering a defeat in CL, they have my deepest sympathy.

  37. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Chas

    Harsh, really harsh. I’m beginning to feel a little low.

    Now see if you feel like answering this. Cavani or Ollie leading the Arsenal attack?

    It’s actually quite funny if you think about it 🙂 🙂

  38. chas says:

    I’ll have Messi.

  39. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Bloody knew you wouldn’t play 🙂

  40. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Not sure what you’re trying to say with the Theo vid, for methinks you speak in code because you is deep and complex.

    Walcott is better than Cavani?
    Girouds only good pass in the entire game means he’s good?

  41. MickyDidIt89 says:

    But it is great to watch 🙂

  42. chas says:

    Did you fall asleep during the Leicester game as well? 😆

  43. MickyDidIt89 says:

    No I did not. I was riveted. Genuinely excited. Loved it, and there’s nothing more I like than an injury time winner.

  44. chas says:

    So, how did you miss so much, then?

  45. chas says:

    Jon Sammels was the pitchside guest at half-time.
    Reminded me of this.

  46. Big Raddy says:

    Asleep??

    How many times over the last few seasons have fans stayed to the end of a Leicester game? It was heartening to see the Gooners so animated and committed to the team.

  47. MickyDidIt89 says:

    POST sent

  48. MickyDidIt89 says:

    1 hour and 38 mins of Fever Pitch?

    Very tempting 🙂

  49. Big Raddy says:

    Didit. Don’t. I am so tempted but have other things that need to be ignored

  50. chas says:

    They showed this goal on the big screens at half time. 🙂

  51. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Erik
    The mood is bleak in the Didit household.
    Only possible day of decent surfing over the half term week was pants yesterday

  52. Big Raddy says:

    Oh dear. Chin up., there is always the next wave

  53. MickyDidIt89 says:

    They are very few and far between this winter, Erik. Relentless South Westerlies 😦

    How’s the camera? Portraits is what I’d do.

  54. GoonerB says:

    Morning all.

    Micky, I hope your post is all about strikers and Cavani and Ollie e.t.c? I have chickened out from addressing the subject over recent days on here, but if you have the fortitude I will be firmly in your corner when the missiles rain down…..right behind you using you as a shield most likely.

  55. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Ha ha GB

    And I was planning to send you “over the top” first 🙂

  56. MickyDidIt89 says:

    I’ll be back in ten mins. I’m working on a theory that I’ll reveal

  57. Morning all

    Just sorting the post ……

  58. RC78 says:

    PSG should have won by 2 goals to reflect the match. However, Chelsea are dangerous on the counter and Willian is just an outstanding player…

    All and all – I hope PSG goes through 🙂

    Cavani scored a goal but trust me, he has been so wasteful this year in France. He is Lucas’ sub now…

    For me the jury is still out on Di Maria…

    Return leg will be a cracker – I think PSG will score at least one and will concede one as well. I can see this game going to extra time but I hope no PK. A 2-2 in ET will be perfect 🙂 David Luiz to score the equalizer in ET for PSG 🙂

  59. We have a New Post ………………………

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