Proof that Arsenal will score more goals this season.

September 5, 2011

Someone questioned on the blog yesterday whether our new line-up would be able to score enough goals, so I thought it would be interesting to compare the goalscoring prowess of the new players against those who have departed based on past performances.

Now I realise that stats are generally just a way of manipulating figures so they masquerade as facts. There are many factors such as playing in a different league, in a different team etc. etc. which completely undermine the validity of the comparison, but I decided to persevere with this lighthearted analysis because we should all be excited by the prospect of a new look Arsenal with more bite in the final third.

I believe the benefits of having a team packed with players who want to prove themselves, who want to play for Arsenal and are unsullied by the grubby attentions of billionaire suitors means that we will at last possess the much vaunted yet ultimately fragile team spirit that evaporated completely in the latter stages of last season.

The following stats are based on the player’s time at Arsenal for those who have left, and games played at their previous club for those have just joined (Benayoun’s stats are from Liverpool as he hardly played for Chelski).

gpg = goals per game.

Likely first team replacements:

Samir Nasri: 18 goals in 86 games = 0.21 gpg

Gervinho: (Lille) 28 goals in 67 games = 0.42 gpg

………………………………………………………………………….

Cesc Fabregas: 35 goals in 212 games = 0.16 gpg

Mikel Arteta: (Everton) 27 goals in 161 games = 0.17 gpg

………………………………………………………………………….

Gael Clichy: 1 goal in 187 games = 0.006 gpg

Santos: (Fenerbahce) 10 goals in 52 games = 0.19 gpg

Assuming that Gervinho, Arteta and Santos will start most games in place of Nasri, Cesc and Clichy, their combined gpg is as follows:

Ex-Arsenalplayers = 54 goals in  585 games = 0.09 gpg

New Arsenal players = 65 goals in 280 games = 0.23 gpg

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Goals from the bench:

Niklas Bendtner: 22 goals in 98 games = 0.22 gpg

Park: (Monaco) 25 goals in 91 games = 0.27 gpg

………………………………………………………………………….

Henri Lansbury: 4 goals in 22 games (on loan to Norwich City) = 0.18 gpg

Alex Oxlade Chamberlain: (Southampton) 9 goals in 36 games = 0.26 gpg

………………………………………………………………………….

Yossi Benayoun may well be used as an impact sub as a more attacking option to Ramsey or Wilshere, he also represents a greater goalscoring threat with stats of  29 goals in 133 games = 0.22 gpg

Wilshere: 1 goal in 37 games = 0.03 gpg

Ramsey: 4 goals in 37 games = 0.11 gpg

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So the results are conclusive as you can see – we’re going to score bucketloads more goals with the new line-up.

The defence is also more solid so we should also be shipping in far fewer goals. We at last have a worthy No.1 keeper. Vermaelen is back (how we’ve missed him) and we have the added experience and height of Mertesacker and the class and pedigree of Santos.

The squad has greater depth and balance than we’ve seen since 2006. We have players like Park and Benayoun who can come off the bench and change games, and the emergence of Jenkinson, Oxlade Chamberlain and Miyaichi to keep everyone on their toes. The squad suddenly looks able to fight on all fronts and will need to do just that to keep everyone involved.

We also have 2 more players who can take a free kick in Santos and Park and hopefully we won’t have the ridiculous situation of our leading goalscorer taking corners instead of getting on the end of them.

Forget the first 3 games of the season, we were still reeling from the effect of the long drawn out departures of Cesc and Na$ri and the squad had been decimated by injuries and suspensions.

The new players will make a difference. Our season starts again this Saturday against Swansea.

Written by Rasp

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Did Arsenal fans get what they deserve?

September 2, 2011

So, the unmistakeable chimes of Big Ben bring the craziest few months an Arsenal fan has ever had to endure to a close. We have lost our club captain, we have lost last seasons best player, and we have been humiliated 8-2 by Man United, yet, with that big bell still ringing in my ear (insert your own joke!) there is a renewed optimism.

Fans had been calling for Arsène Wenger to bring experience into the club for the last few years, it had appeared to be falling on deaf ears, until last night. Finally, the professor has done away with his penchant for kids and brought some first class experience and more importantly leadership to the side.

A 6 foot 6 inch German international with 75 caps to his name has been recruited to teach TV the importance of defensive positioning, something that Vermaelen lacks at times as was all too evident in the home game against Barcelona 2 years ago. There is no doubt that TV is an outstanding defender, with a mean tackle, a wicked left foot, and possibly the best standing jump in the Premier League (apart from Fabianski!), but the chance to learn from a seasoned professional like Per will take him onto the next level.

In front of them we have signed Yossi Benayoun on a season long loan and Mikel Arteta for a princely sum of £10m. Between them they have over 10 years experience in the Premier League, more than most of our midfielders put together. They have been brought in to ease the pressure on young Jack and Aaron, but also to show the young pretenders how it can be done. Not how to pass a ball, Aaron and Jack need no help in that department, no, they are here to show he kids the all important ability to arrive into the box late. This is a skill that made Freddie Ljungberg into a Highbury hero, and with the wide players now at Arsene’s disposal, it is something that the new look Arsenal team can profit from. All Gooners know that we have the annoying habit of crossing into an empty box, if these two can find a way of making late runs more often then we could be adding an extra 15 goals a season from midfield.

As well as these timely additions, Wenger also found time to pick up a Brazilian Confederations Cup winning left back as cover for Gibbs whilst his bones and muscles find a way to get along, the current South Korean captain and 4 other young prospects who are already settled at the club.

Wenger has shown how a club without the megabucks of a sugar daddy can operate in the minefield that is the modern day transfer market.  I have heard some fans saying that they are disappointed that we didn’t bring in a marquee signing, but i have to disagree. Big money signings bring with them an air of attitude and cockiness, something that Arsenal FC could do without after the recent Cesc and Nasri sagas. They also carry huge price tags. Cahill was touted as the ideal signing by many, but with an estimated £15m value, Wenger opted to bag himself an extra 60+ caps worth of experience and pocket £5m in the process. Surely a great piece of business.

Another name that was being thrown around by our transfer hungry fans was that of Eden Hazard. Currently with Lille and with an asking price in excess of £20m, this kid is seen as the next big thing. But if that is the case, then why hasn’t he been snapped up already? It is impossible these days to keep an up and coming talent secret from the circling vultures of Man City, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Chelsea etc so why haven’t they tried to do a deal? After all, they have enough spare change in there pockets to complete this deal without even having to nip to the local cash point! So why hasn’t it been done? Well that’s a question i cannot answer, but if they are unwilling to part with what is quite frankly spare change, then why would Wenger risk his precious money, and more importantly his future at AFC on such a player? Lets face it, after a 6% price hike, the last thing he can do is risk throwing money away. How would that look!?

Its been a crazy 3 months as a Gooner, and arguably the hardest in recent times, but we have made it through with manager in tact (to the annoyance of some), 9 new faces, and a new belief that this could yet turn out to be a successful season for our boys. I really hope so, because after all we have been through in the last few months, it is the fans who deserve it…..

Written by Fatgingergooner

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Four days that shook The Emirates

September 1, 2011

That was a very strange few days. We spend years carefully, slowly building squads, with obscure players brought in from far and wide, punctuated with highly profitable sales. This modus operandi became familiar to all of us. But in this transfer window, that has all been ripped up, culminating in an insane final evening yesterday. To recap:

Brought into the squad: Arteta, Mertesacker, Benayoun, Park, Santos, Jenkinson, Gervinho, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Miayichi (and Campbell was also signed)

Sold: Fabregas, Nasri, Clichy, Eboue, Traore, Emmanuel-Thomas, Randall, Cruise and Sunu

Loaned out: Denilson, Bendtner, Lansbury, Vela, Wellington, Bartley, Afobe, Bothelho, Galindo and Campbell

That is a scale of business we simply haven’t seen before, ever. And in addition to the new youngsters, seeing the recruitment of solid, experienced players, some from within the PL, some from elsewhere, also marks a break with the past.

We can pick over the bones of how the summer was managed another time, and there will be those who continue to query how we can be ambitious and make trading profits (I reckon we’ve made something like £20m this summer). But what cannot be denied is that our squad today is deeper and stronger than it was a week ago. Before Sunday’s decimation at Old Trafford, we were already screaming for signings to be made; the crescendo only grew louder when those eight goals were shipped, despite the fact the team on display that day was freakishly weakened.

I reckon our strongest starting XI is now:

That is a line-up that should give any opponents cause for concern. Also, the very fact that we’ll now be able to debate whether Ramsey or Koscielny or Gibbs or Benayoun or Arshavin etc should be in ahead of the eleven I’ve listed means we are in a far healthier state than we were. There will be competition for places, alternatives for the manager and education for raw youngsters like Jenkinson, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Miyaichi. And as Jack W’s superb tweets through yesterday evening showed, these signings will lift the squad at a time when morale was in danger of collapsing.

However, let’s not pretend it’s all rosy. Arteta and Benayoun are talented, experienced, creative players with substantial PL pedigrees. But neither one can match the talents of Fabregas. And Mertesacker is undeniably slow, which given our naive fondness for a high defensive line, could create difficulties. We’ll also have to see whether Santos and Park can make meaningful contributions when called upon. And above all else, this revolutionary change to our squad means that there is a hell of a lot of work for Wenger and the coaching team to do to assimilate the new elements into the squad after the international break. Having already given up eight points, we need to get our season going quickly, and that means these new Gunners need to knit together immediately.

Is this squad better than the one that last season promised so much but ultimately failed so miserably? Difficult to say with so many unknown factors, but plenty of Gooners will have a spring in their step this morning. Quite a contrast to the miserable embarrassment we all felt after Sunday.

Come on Swansea, let’s be having you!

Written by 26may1989

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