Ten weeks ago on 3rd January, we’d beaten Fulham at home 4-1 a couple of days previously and City had just beaten Liverpool (still the scousers only defeat of the season).
We sat 7 points behind the spuds and 3 behind the chavs in the Premier League. According to the stats chaps we had a 1 in 3 chance of finishing in the top 4. The spuds sat on 90% chance and chavs 70%. Our simulated end of season points total was 71 points, 8 less than the spuds and 4 behind Chelsea.
Since then we’ve caught up 6 points on both of our London rivals, including picking up maximum points at home to Chelsea and Man U and gaining a creditable (and a touch unlucky to be only a single) point away at Wembley.
The race for the top 4 has opened up with the red mancs having marginally better form than us over those same games. Thankfully the steam appears to be evaporating slightly from the OGS express with back to back defeats.
Since early January our chances of achieving that top four position have, apparently, more than doubled . Meanwhile the spuds’ chances have dropped from 90 to just under 70% and chavs from over 70% to just less than 1 in 3.
I realise that this kind of analysis annoys some folks in a similar way to GIE’s swing-o-meter used to perplex me. 🙂
I’ve seen comments on twitter under the second projection saying, ‘this is basically just the League table, isn’t it?’. Of course it’s fine to think like that about attempts to try to statistically analyse a game involving 22 chaps, a pig’s bladder and a man and his buddies dressed in black (or green), all being of indeterminate parentage.
Anyway, moving on to the fun part. Optimism is high in the Arsenal camp at the start of the interlull having disposed of Rennes and the resurgent mancs in the past week but with 5 away games left of our remaining eight, there are sure to be some ups and downs in the weeks to come. Wolves away (the game postponed because of their FA Cup game last weekend) has been been rescheduled for Wednesday April 24th and we’re sure of a hot reception at Molineux under the floodlights.
Here’s a chance for you to show what a balanced and reasonable Arsenal supporter you are by guessing where we’ll finish come May 12th. We already know that FGG thinks we’ll be lucky to finish 6th and BR only appreciates our slim chances of finishing 4th if the sun’s out in Denmark. 🙂
What other factors need to be taken into account for the run-in? Your thoughts in the comments below, please.