The placement of the top six clubs in the Premier League looks like it will go right down to the last game of the season.
Top six standings as of March 11th –
Lets take a look at where the teams stand with only eight games left to play (Chelsea still have nine but play today).
The top two positions look to be contested between Manchester City and Liverpool – will Liverpool finally win their nineteenth league title and their first Premier League Championship or will holders Manchester City win their sixth league title (4th since the oil money came in) ?
In the reverse fixtures this season Manchester City beat Manchester United and Tottenham but lost to Crystal Palace and Leicester City gaining 18 out of 24 points. Liverpool won 7 out of the 8 games and drew with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge gaining 21 out of 24 points.
Liverpool has the advantage of playing Tottenham and Chelsea in front of their home supporters at Anfield while Manchester City has the distinct disadvantage of playing Manchester United at Old Trafford.
My best guess is that Liverpool will hold their nerve and win their first Premier League Championship, though with both teams in the Champions League q/fs, European distractions may play a part.
The third through sixth positions are between Spurs, Arsenal, Man U and Chelsea and the four teams are separated by only four points with their final placement in complete doubt.
Let’s look at the teams individually.
In their reverse fixtures this season they won 6 of the 8 games but lost at home to both Liverpool and Manchester City gaining 18 out of 24 points.
In their last 4 games Tottenham have picked up only 1 point, drawing with Arsenal and losing to Burnley, Chelsea and Southampton. In their last 8 games they will have to face both Liverpool and Manchester City in away fixtures.
(Update : the Champions League may not distract them for too much longer unfortunately)
Arsenal won 5 of their reverse fixtures while drawing with Wolves, Crystal Palace and Brighton gaining 18 out of the 24 points.
They have finished all of their games against the top 6 teams which should give them a big advantage in the race for the top 4 positions.
Manchester United won 4 of their reverse games but drew with Wolves and Chelsea while losing to Manchester City and West Ham gaining only 14 of the 24 points.
They have been revitalised by new management and in their last 13 league games they have won 10 drawn 2 and lost just 1 to Arsenal at the Emirates. Their final place in the PL will most likely be determined by the results in their homes games against Manchester City and Chelsea.
(Update : they’ll be pleased they can concentrate on the League – now that the FA Cup is out of the way! But still have Barca to negotiate in the CL.)
In their reverse fixtures Chelsea won 4 and but drew with Everton, West Ham, Liverpool and Manchester United while losing to Leicester and only picking up a low 12 out of 27 points.
In their final 9 league games they have 5 very tough away games at Everton, Cardiff City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Leicester.
As I look at the potential final 3rd through 6th positions it’s conceivable that all four teams can finish with the same amount of points. I know that everything can change with one result but based on the above thoughts and statistics I will go out on a limb and say that they will finish in these positions.
3rd Arsenal, 4th Manchester United, 5th Tottenham and 6th Chelsea.
What are your thoughts?
Chas ha ha
I’ll read shortly
Clearly we have the advantage of no top six encounters, but, and given our away form it’s a big but, we have five away games. The others only have three, three and four respectively
How will Totnum bed into their new crib? 🙂
It looks like being an exciting end to the season. The spuds imploding has added to it immensely. With all six English teams still in European competition the scenario that 4th might not be good enough for Champions League football still exists, too.
Would you take the spuds finishing above us in 4th?
Say, if we came 5th and won the Europa while Man U finished 6th and won the Champions League, they would miss out on a CL place. 🙂
Interesting statistical analysis. I will go out on my own limb and say Liverpool will win all their remaining Premier League fixtures. Manshitty will win all their remaining Premier League fixtures except the Totteringham home game, which Totteringham will win having been knocked out of the Champions League over two legs by Manshitty. This will result in Liverpool winning the Premier League.
Arsenal will come third in the Premier League, followed by Totteringham, Manure and Chelski. Liverpool will lose to Barcelona in the semi-final of the Champions League and Barcelona will beat Manshitty in the final of the Champions League. What odds would I get?
“What odds would I get?”
I’m 100% sure you could choose which bookie you’d prefer to give your money to 🙂
Arsenal seem to play well when our back is against the wall and the game is a must-win. Look at how we played in the first 30 minutes against Rennes in the EUFA Cup tie at home. We are at our best when we attack but when we are over cautious and play sideways passes as if we are in a contest where points are given for possession, we are caught off-guard with our porous defense. It is this cautious approach which makes us lose away fixtures. When at home, we seem comfortable to attack. Emery has to change our mentality.
My opinion varies depending upon my mood. When skies are blue I expect us to finish in 4th, when cloudy, 6th
Brilliant, GN5. 🙂 Great food for thought.
on 1 and 2, first. Some time in the past, I would have gunned for Pool, despite their corrupt flooding of the punditry enclave with numpties. Just because they have not won since 1990, are a working class team (well, sort of) and maintain a good youth setup. That would be enough, normally, to take them above the northern oilers. However, not quite so much this year!
They have deliberately tried to skew the transfer market by spending silly money on iffy assets. 75m for a defender and Dennis knows how much (400m maybe?) on a GK, neither of them good enough to ensure an invincibles season, or win treble or whatever, is disgracefully wasteful.
Why? Just because they want to take opportunities away from honest, frugal and responsible spenders like Leicester, Wolves or our fav club of all. I think this is shameful. They should have spent that money on their youth establishment and on the community.
Learn from Wichai. Respect.
So, this year I dont care that much who goes 1 and 2, but rather the northern oilers. 🙂
We will come third, I think. Footie fandom is not the best pursuit for realists, anyway! 🙂
We have done most of the hard work, no top 6 opponent remaining, and we deserve it. Totnumb are in free fall, and we can look forward to St Totteringham’s Day. Mancunians are also in free fall now, despite the Fergie-stle luck in Paris. They and Chavs will take points off each other.
My best guess: us at 3rd, Chavs 4th, ManUre 5th and Totnumb 6th. And just to celebrate that thought, let us open a bottle of red. First one after release from hospital – surgery, old age, such is life! COYG
Monchi snubbing us; Marc O wants to come at the end of the season.
I’d settle for the little Billy Whizz.
Top read GN5
Who were Podgy and Emery managing when that photo up there was taken?
It’s always a good day for me when United lose, particularly when the are soundly beaten and knocked out of the FA Cup at the same time. It also leave us as the team with the most FA Cup wins.
I intensely dislike these lulls between games – it seems so disjointed and unnecessary, surely there must be a way to create a more balanced schedule.
ha ha. what did i say. bloody vvd and allison 🙂
Barca can’t meet shitty in final if I not mistaken only pool or juventus
No, you’re mistaken, Fred.
Ajax or Juventus vs Tottenham or Man City
Barcelona or Man Utd vs Liverpool or FC Porto
or, in honour of Fred
Big ROLFING at Chelsea.
Arsenal NOT playing can be so rewarding and enjoyable in a laid back and relaxing condor moment kind of a way 🙂
Could there be a worse time for an international break!? All those around us are falling to pieces and we’ve just hit peak form. I now fully expect a few of our players to get crocked in the next fortnight whilst the other sides come back refreshed and suddenly find their mojo.
ha ha ha ha. 🙂
Going to be an exciting couple of months. MU and AFC have to go to Everton.
Another something to ponder thread!
BR- am with you mate, especially since we are talking about the Arsenal.
Think team can make top 4, in my dreams, ahead of spuds, but not sure.
Who takes the EPL? Who cares, all I can hope for is ffP punishment that takes the title away from both.
Look forward to Europa and the remaining games.
How can you possible be with Erik?
His comment earlier was utterly miserable (ok, not FFG level doom), but he said that in a sunshine mood he thinks 4th may be on. Eh?
What would it take for him to believe 3rd might be on the cards. 17 pole dancers to materialise in his bedroom next time Mrs Erik is Baltic Bathing?
I went to my usual str*aming site to watch the Everton/Chelsea match. The site has a big list of matches from everywhere in the world. One of the first up was ‘Aves vs Chaves’ (portuguese league I think)
I inadvertantly clicked on the link……
Fgg level doom – haha.
As I said, but in my dreams ahead of spuds. They actually have an easier run in.
Hope Ospina is ok. Why on earth would he even try to play on?? After Cech’s injury everyone should be very careful.
The Messi goal.
Who else could score that, Micky?
Dennis or Cantona?
Again, love these things. I get why the brexit players are in, just nt sure why Kim Jon gets so much air time. Who’s the clarinettist and is that Fat Sam or Farage tucking in 🙂
The goal has that lazy looking nonchalance
How about that for a post
Question of the day
Which footballer made the game looking easiest?
The Cold War Steve montages began a couple of years ago and he just included people who were in the news.
There’s only Brexit stuff in there because it’s so prominent in the news.
Kim Jong Un has been in there for ages because of his great smile and that photo of him looking like he worked in a chip shop.
Fat Sam is eating the Fray bentos. Have you seen that some people are stockpiling those pies for the predicted Brexit food shortage?
Not sure about the clarinettist. Will have a look.
Kenny G apparently – never heard of him, but then I’m not down with the kids!
The fish and chip shop Kim is so brilliant
Stockpiling food? Not sure it’s food you’ll need, more like a one way ticket out of Europe
The bloke in the cap back left is Morrissey judging by the comments under the tweet. I thought it was Larry Lamb!
Looking at that K G album cover, I have one question
Great idea for a post.
Might do that for Wednesday.
Unless you fancy doing it, of course?
We have something for today and tomorrow. 🙂
Don’t know who Larry Lamb is, but if Morrissey, then wow really!
I feel I owe the blog a post to do my bit. Will aim for weds if that’s ok
Can yu make d with a Q of the day?
6:31. Good news
“Can yu make d with a Q of the day?”
Larry Lamb is an actor who was in Eastenders – not part of your universe, I realise. 🙂
ignore that comment (can you make do with a question of the day) now I’ve seen your sit rep 🙂
Happy Birthday to one of the most wholehearted and loyal Arsenal full backs of all time. Happy Birthday Pat Rice.
Did you see Arseblog yesterday celebrating St Pat Rice’s Day?
have good days all.
Love the Spanish commentary for the Messi goal. “Extraordinary!”. His free kick was bad either. Offers so much more, and in a ” humbler” way to the beautiful game than Ronaldo.