That little table on the right shows we are still one point behind last seasons cumulative total, one problem with that table (other than the lack of progression in 2010/11 from game 27 onwards) is that it does not take into account the opponents played. On Saturday we made a big step forward, like for like games compared to last season we are now 3 points up.
In one respect this makes the second half at Ewood, the unfortunate event in N17 and the late goals against Liverpool more costly. If we had gone like for like in those games we would now be up seven points on last season. Unfortunately one of those games occurred in the wake of the most turbulent pre seasons this club has ever seen, one in the early days of rebuilding, and one caused by the once in a lifetime goal immediately preceding disappearance to football obscurity.
Since those games we have been on a run which has seen us turnaround a number of disastrous results from last season, including perhaps most impressively and key to the change to a more cheerful Emirates faithful the victory over the Chavs down the Kings Road.
Whilst football seasons don’t go to exactly to history the majority of games go with form and expectation, especially where the top clubs are concerned. With that in mind I have looked at our nearest rivals using the same like for like basis to see if they have started the season as well as the current table suggests.
For the sake of this exercise West Ham were replaced by Norwich, Blackpool by Swansea, and Birmingham by QPR.
This is the result:
What does this tell us?
In my opinion it shows us that at United appear to be standing still, Chavs performing worse whilst Dippers, Shitty and Spuds have shown big gains.
Depending how you interpret this swing and how you extrapolate it gives various outcomes.
If you assume the remaining games will go as they did last season the final table will end up something like this:
Clearly that shows United retaining their championship and the rest of the top 4 being the same as last season. Whilst that will satisfy us after our poor start should we really be looking at the swing compared to the points gained last year, and then extrapolate that swing over the remaining games (and points achieved)? If so that would give the following:
Whilst all of this is playing with numbers it is important to show that despite our recent form and surpassing our points total from the same games last year we are not out of the woods yet. This could turn into one of the most exciting races for the Champions League ever, with not just two teams chasing the final spot, but four or five teams chasing three spots, plus a Championship to win.
The shake down is a long way off but the teams performances between now and January are crucial in achieving Champions League qualification.
Out of interest, to still be three points ahead come New Year’s Day we have to win every game but one (which will need to be a draw). That is the task that lays ahead of the manager and players to stay ahead of last years performance.
Written by Gooner In Exile
Arsenal News 24/7
arsenalarsenal.net 
Quote “There are lies, damned lies and statistics” end Quote.
Who cares? The only question is whether Arsenal will fold when the pressure is on like they always seems to do. They get themselves in a good position in the table and then implode. It is in March/April we will know if we have made any progress or not.
Morning all,
Thanks for a brain teaser of a post GiE, I think some folks are taking it a bit too seriously.
“This could turn into one of the most exciting races for the Champions League ever, with not just two teams chasing the final spot, but four or five teams chasing three spots, plus a Championship to win.” sums up the mouthwatering prospcet ahead of us.
If you look at the chart on the right. the 32 from last year is in red because for one day we were top of the league for one day, I expect that at least 3 teams will have more points (40+) this season. That’s the pity of last season, none of the other big guns were playing well and yet we failed to capitalise.
This season it looks like a 2 horse race although manu cannot keep winning games whilst giving the opposition so many chances.
Thanks for that analysis GiE – the most important point to take from it is that we are still in choppy waters league wise and we have to back the team and push them onto a winning streak well into the New Year.
I’ve got my tickets for the Toffess game in December and will be taking Chary major and minor with me, so “alcohol free” Peronis for me at the Tavern on the 10th. 🙂
Hi GIE, 🙂
Good Post, with some well worked assumptions and conclusions.
I know some will not understand that you are trying to show our bad start to this season, does not condemn us to a continuing bad season, and neither does it pre-determine a good finish for those clubs like Newcastle who have started well, and I for one am really pleased that whichever extrapolation you chose to use, showed us to be well in for qualification to next year’s CL.
GIE. Good work. Shame the ney-sayers cannot enjoy a ray of sunshine!
As Chary say, we are still in choppy waters, but would they prefer a continuation of our early season form – I expect so.
As you point out we need to be almost perfect to maintain the 3 points at Xmas. Why not …?
That Alex Ice Cream bloke used to be a regular on ACLF; they used to slag him off something rotten for being so negative, it seemed like victimisation and I felt quite sorry for him, I now realise they were right — he really is quite simply a miserable get.
Nice one GIE
It had also occured to me that this season could be one of the most interesting title races in years.
I don’t go along with Rasp’s assumption that it is a two horse race.
There is another team that has found a new mental strength that I reckon will fight to the very end.
“This season it looks like a 2 horse race although manu cannot keep winning games whilst giving the opposition so many chances.”
Not saying it is a 2 horse race, city will win it, manu and particularly the chavs may well fall away.
Love that post GiE 🙂 Thanks for putting the time and effort into it. So whatever happens we’ll be third this year; where can we put the signature? 😛
For the Dippers and Manure (I like the way you use these nicknames!) it is all or nothing according to two types of swing you applied. Interesting stuff.
Interesting alalysis GIE, but this is the craziest season I have seen in the PL, and maybe that is what makes football such an addiction.
I always take one game at a time , especially with Arsenal, but this season one has literally City with practically two first teams.can they keep it up, who knows.
All teams are liable to let in goals more so than many a year and therefore it makes at least for the spectator an exciting encounter.
I would be very happy with third this year being realistic and Chelsea and Spurs and possibly Liverpool about 6 points behind us fighting out for forth.
as it’s Friday.
If you yelled for 8 years, 7 months and 6 days you would have produced enough sound energy to heat one cup of coffee.
(Hardly seems worth it.)
If you farted consistently for 6 years and 9 months, enough gas is produced to create the energy of an atomic bomb.
(Now that’s more like it!)
The human heart creates enough pressure when it pumps out to the body to squirt blood 30 feet.
(O.M.G.!)
A pig’s orgasm lasts 30 minutes.
(O.M.G.!!!)
A cockroach will live nine days without its head before it starves to death. (Creepy)
(I’m still not over the pig.)
Banging your head against a wall uses 150 calories an hour.
(Don’t try this at home; maybe at work.)
The male praying mantis cannot copulate while its head is attached to its body. The female initiates sex by ripping the male’s head off.
(Honey, I’m home . What the…?)
The flea can jump 350 times its body length. It’s like a human jumping the length of a football field.
(30 minutes. Lucky pig! Can you imagine?)
The catfish has over 27,000 taste buds.
(What could be so tasty on the bottom of a pond?)
Some lions mate over 50 times a day.
(I still can’t believe that pig …quality over quantity.)
Butterflies taste with their feet.
(Something I always wanted to know.)
The strongest muscle in the body is the tongue.
(Hmmmmmm…….)
Right-handed people live, on average, nine years longer than left-handed people.
(If you’re ambidextrous, do you split the difference?)
Elephants are the only animals that cannot jump.
(Okay, so that would be a good thing.)
A cat’s urine glows under a black light.
(I wonder how much the government paid to figure that out.)
An ostrich’s eye is bigger than its brain.
(I know some people like that.)
Starfish have no brains.
(I know some people like that, too.)
Polar bears are left-handed..
(If they switch, they’ll live a lot longer.)
Humans and dolphins are the only species that have sex for pleasure.
(What about that pig? Do the dolphins know about the pig?)
Now that you’ve smiled at least once, it’s your turn to spread these crazy facts and send this to someone you want to bring a smile to, maybe even a chuckle.
In other words, send it to everyone!
(and God love that pig!)
Here’s my analysis – if we are close to the same position in february 2012 as we were in february 2011 then i see us fininshing in the top 2 – The current team, while maybe not as talented as last year, strike me as a far more and resilliant lot than last year.
With a fit vermaelan, arteta, wilshire and van persie – my god what a story this season could bring… Arsene’s Anfield 89′?
8-2 down in september to Champions in May….
The stuff of legend and a movie starring colin firth – i hope Nick Hornby is reading…
* 8-2 down in august rather
Interesting post, GIE.
The “monster” strikes again.
Morning all thanks for the understanding that’s it’s not a “hang your hat on stats post”.
I must admit it was quite sobering writing it as I realised that altho we surpassed the like for like against WBA we have a run of games approaching that we did well in last year.(including 3 points away at Shity but also the draw away at Wigan).
I could have sat and worked out whether Dippers and Shitty results are as spectacular as they suggest for the Dippers I could have worked out whether they were pre/post Kenny.
I honestly think Chavs are there for the taking and AvB may have an abrupt end like Scolari. ManUre fans are definitely becoming restless when they look at their squad and have turbulent times ahead.
We are a long way from winning the League and a CL spot is going to be a battle.
Exile, as one who has produced number-based posts aimed at understanding something about our performances to date, I love your post. Of course it’s projection, that’s obvious. And the “lies, damned lies and statistics” criticisms are as predictable as they are wrong.
So well done you!
It’s going to be a very interesting season. The title is the Abu Dhabi Govt’s to lose – they have more than enough quality, are well balanced across the pitch, and the handbrake of last year appears to have been taken off. Even the psychological elements of sagas like Tevez, Balotelli and too many overpaid, underplayed players etc seem to be manageable. That said, they’re not dead certs, and if United recover their early form they could definitely go head-to-head.
For the others, it’s all about form. Spurs and Arse would therefore have something behind them, but for either it is a long shot in terms of being serious title contenders, and for us we do depend on van Persie staying fit for the whole season. Hopefully, our new found efficiency and calmness will be maintained in games against the lesser lights. Like London, despite everything, I can see us being there in the run-in, but then I’m always a glass half-full merchant. The away game at the Wastelands next month will be a big indicator of whether that fairytale, of just being in the competition for the title, could have anything to it.
More likely, the ADG will stay ahead of the pack and United will get drawn back into a competition with the rest of us for the three other CL spots. Assuming Newcastle fall away, I can definitely see all three spots from second to fourth being fought over by the other five. It’s interesting to see that a four-point gap has already opened up between 7th and 8th spots, and I can see that getting wider, as the top group do what they often didn’t do last season, and get plenty of points from all the other teams, making the remaining head-to-head games even more important.
Chelsea still have plenty about them, and they must still think they should finish at least third, but I really think we could see them finish behind both North London teams and outside the top four. Liverpool are dangerous but just aren’t as good as the rest.
Obviously like-for-like from last season is flawed as a comparator – the main one being Citeh look much stronger than they did last season. We played them off the pitch at heir place but I can’t really see that being repeated this time around.
Let’s just thank the Lord that Sheikh Rattlenroll didn’t drop his swollen sack into WHL eh?
@Exile: “I honestly think Chavs are there for the taking” – agree 100%.
Wow GiE,
Never ever have I felt so extapolated. Love it 🙂
One difference between you and me is that you are an accountant and I am not. However, I do have to do my sums from time to time. To add a little creativity, I throw in some Micky Variables, and interestingly, when I apply this to football, lo and behold Spuds come bottom every single time.
@Illy: I disagree, it’s not flawed to look at like-for-like, and it’s also not flawed to look at the “where we are now vs where we were at the same stage last season” chart. They are just devices to look for different trends. It would be flawed if they were dressed up as predictions, but that’s not what Exile has done.
Sport is completely unpredictable (unless you’re a gambler who’s slipped a wedge to a Pakistani bowler), and of course anything can happen, especially given the changes since last season. But Exile’s analysis draws valid lessons by looking at things through one particular prism.
Chas,
This has to be the only football blog in the world where I can sit and watch a five minute pig insemination video, and think “ok, nothing unusual about that” 🙂
Only a very brief visit from me, but exactly how much fun is going to be winning against City?
Bye for now.
1/3 litre!! Respect to the PIGS!
Interesting stats GIE. I still maintain that if we are 10 points or so behind the leaders (probably City) around Februray we can still win the league. I am convinced that if we can put City under pressure they will shit themselves and drop points.
Thanks for the laughs Kelsey.
Chas, you are without doubt, ‘The Video King’.
Stats being stats there’s always another way to look at the same numbers.
In this chart I’ve taken the form of the top seven teams over their last five games and figured out their winning %.
I’ve then taken their winning % and used that to determine how many points they will gain from their remaining games.
Finally I’ve added their current points to the points they will potentially gain to determine the final standings.
Man C ……..112 pts.
New U………95
Spurs ………95
Arsenal……..84
Man U ………80
Chelsea…….76
Liverpool……68
Kinda surprising if it turned out to be true……………
GiE- thanks for the number crunching! I wouldn’t know how to start on an analysis of this order- thanks for the brain fodder 🙂
I still haven’t changed my opinion that this will be a rollercoaster of a season and your hope for us to go unbeaten until January- whilst feasible- is at odds with my view! Let’s see how many of our key players are fit to take the field after these damned internationals!
What I did think was realistic was the view that we should make top 4 under most scenarios but I also feel chelsea will pull their socks up and give everyone a sterner challenge for 4th.
Regardless of my views though- hats off for doing the work comparing games against the same opponents between seasons- one of my favourite types of football musing!
gunnern5 – thats ridiculous, i mean there would be no St Totteringham’s day in 2012!!!
That hasn’t happened since the advent of color tvs
Although the mayans could be right
Haha Micky, wasn’t it dis-semination? 🙂
Thanks, TMHT.
For those that were offended, blame Kelsey, he started it.
I don’t think it will be a 2 horse race between the mancs. I think the red ones will fall away badly
Good effort GN5, I’ll be honest drawing conclusions from the numbers is no exact science, but now I have the info in a nice Excel Spreadsheet I will keep it updated and post updates from time to time.
Rasp I can send you a weekly image file of the like for like (excl predictions) if you want to add it on the right hand side.
Has anyone else noticed our 49 game unbeaten run is in jeopardy? Huddersfield are 7 (I think) games away. They have to go away to Charlton on a Monday night, otherwise all the games look win-able or draw-able. I think the Charlton game is on the telly so I might just watch that one.
She was only a Yorkshire lass but she liked her udders feeled…
Very interesting, Illy.
This from the Huddersfield Daily Examiner.
“Town have equalled Forest’s best-ever Football League run of 42 games unbeaten, set under the legendary Brian Clough…..
Aiming to stop Lee Clark’s side making it an all-time high of 43 will be Notts County, Town’s next League I opponents at the Galpharm on Saturday week…”
That Charlton game’ll definitely be worth watching.
I hadn’t realised that Illy. Given the Chapman connection, there’s something very elegant about Huddersfield being the team that might best the 49.
(Not that we should gave lost to Man U on the 50th game…. Grrrrr.)
Good luck to Huddersfield – I liked them when we played them in the FA Cup, and Lee Clark appears to have established himself as a surprisingly good manager.
108, flippin heck1
http://www.thebesteleven.com/2008/07/longest-domestic-unbeaten-streaks-ever.html
Good find Chas – wasn’t ASEC Abidjan (Ivory Coast) Toure’s team, or Eboue, or both? Bit before their time though.
I seem to remember Ajax always winning their title with very few losses, so no surprise to see them in there.
Illy, correct, both Toures, Eboue, Gervinho, Zakora, Kalou, they were all at ASEC. I think Drogba wasn’t there though.
I also think we hooked into ASEC as a feeder club through the Beveren link-up.
some feeder club then! Just Eboue to show for it. I guess we hit the crossbar with his brother. I think there was one other on trial at the same time as Eboue, short name, maybe two letters….um. No definitely not Um…
Marco Ne ! Ain’t Google magical? Like the ‘Home’ and ‘End’ buttons
Né had a pre-season trial period with Arsenal F.C. in 2004 along with fellow Côte d’Ivoire player Emmanuel Eboué, but unlike Eboué, Né failed to secure a transfer to the Premiership side.
He was signed by Olympiacos C.F.P. to replace Yaya Touré, who departed for A.S. Monaco, but failed to break into the first team due to constant injury problems for the majority of his spell at the club. Failing to leave an impression, Né was released by Olympiacos C.F.P. in the winter transfer period of 2008.
On 22 January 2009 Né signed a three-year contract with FC Kuban Krasnodar.[3] In February he received a knee injury and missed the entire season.
Shame – with that injury record he has Arsenal DNA running through him.
“Arsenal’s Theo Walcott believes England’s pace can beat Spain at Wembley”
Bless!
Is that Norman Pace? Gareth Hale must be out injured then.
Yaya Toure sort of counts as an opportunity we got via ASEC too – he played in a pre-season game for us (vs Barnet?), couldn’t get a work permit and went to Beveren. I assume Wenger thought he’d be able to get him in once he’d become eligible for a UK work permit but Yaya got impatient and started his pan-European journey, Ukraine, Greece, Monaco, Barca and you know who.
Good fun piece GiE
I take some comfort from the figures because
(a) we had a ridiculously bad start to the season but that form is now well in the past. And
(b) our real year-on-year games will come in the final part of the season when, last year, we won 2, lost 4 and drew 5 out of our final 11 games.
My “feelings” for what they’re worth are that…
Newcastle will fall off badly post Christmas.
Chavs will slip out of the top four.
ManUre will continue to not realise how average they are and will just about stay in touch with the ADG.
We’ll beat the ADG to stop them being Invincible.
Spuds will have a bad spell that will see them slip down to 6th/7th but will come back for a decent tilt at the CL places.
Pool will not make top four.
We’ll finish third… but if a few things fall our way TMHT might just prove to be the sanest of the lot of us…
*should have been ‘real year-on-year gains’
Thinking about ManUre…
This may sound a bit daft, but I thought they were really poor even when they beat us 8-2.
They were playing against a team half-filled with scratch players and the score was only 3-1 when AW made the bizarre decision to take off Coquelin and replace him with AOC. At that point we had already missed a penalty and spurned a couple of glorious goal chances.
I’m not saying we were any good – just that, despite the score, ManUre were displaying the signs of a team with a lot of problems at the back.
As Rasp says, if they keep giving so many chances away it’s going to cost them eventually.
And (as we know all too well) once that aura of invincibility begins to fade, lesser teams start to really feel they might have a chance.
Just did something I haven’t done in a long time, had a look at other clubs coming fixtures.
Manu’s are so easy; expect them to be top by xmas.
Chavs are really hard; expect them to be out of the top four by xmas
Citeh’s are quite tricky
spuds are easyish, expect them to hold third.
The force is with the Good Guys so no silly slip ups and we will be well positioned.
Chu Young Park scored again for his country!
GiE – love today’s post and your manipulation of figures to support your never ending optimism!
chas @2:53pm,
How come the spuds are not top of that list ?.
Longest streak of piss ever : 1 st Spuds 129 years.
I like Park
It doesn’t really matter about the oppo. You still need to get into the position and finish. He’ll need time to bed in though.
Eduardo used to score loads of goals for Croatia too
He was scoring a few for us til he had his accident
Hi Oz, Oman 1 – 0 Australia????? 😦
A bit of good news: RvP will not play against Germany on Tuesday but is allowed to return to England – it was agreed between Wenger and Van Marwijk today 🙂
Holland 0 – 0 Switzerland. RvP and Djourou both played 90 minutes – no injuries 🙂
GIE…….Nice one mate…….
For me we had our dip early, we wont drop off the edge like last season, onwards and upwards, it can only get better and still L’il Jack to come back…….
Is it over yet? No? Another week to go? Bloody hell……
I know its so annoying, international weeks should be banned….
Seems like the BFG and Vermealen didn’t even make their respective squads…………….which is good.
I would like to know how Wenger managed to swing the deal with Van Marwijk in which Van Persie doesn’t have to take any part Holland’s match against their most bitter footballing enemy.
In reality LB it’s good for both club and country not to over exert RvP.
Holland need him for for Euros and know we won’t rest him for PL and CL so as many rests as possible must be a good thing for all concerned.
As ive said before the beauty of the Spanish midfield is Arteta doesn’t get a sniff so we can play him every game safe in the knowledge he gets a two week break every so often 😀
I think we decided last week Wenger should get all players who play for us but come from a country with no chance of World Cup glory to retire after 2012.
With the January transfer window fast approaching and Chavs and ManUre sure to strengthen my thoughts are turning to what if anything we should expect. Arshavin is the only player in recent times to join us mid season isn’t he? Do we think Wenger and the Board will look to add some depth in January? If so where?
Morning GIE
There is surely now only one area that can and should be strengthened — the attack.
I have no problem in the way Park is being brought through and I, like most, have crossed fingers that Chamakh can regain his form but we obviously need more than crossed fingers to win the league, that said, I still have enough faith in Wenger that he can see this as well.
If Arshavin goes in January we could afford to bring in a player capable of playing wide as well as central and when I say afford I am not talking financially, the squad has to balance.
Almost like another Gervinho who can play widish and I would imagine more centrally than he has done so far.
On that subject, does anyone know if he ever played the number 9 role for Lille?
Morning. It seems clear to me that Park was bought as cover in case of injury but more importantly for when The Gerv goes to the African Cup for 4/6 weeks.
We shall have the opportunity to assess whether a new striker was an important purchase because I will bet Rasp’s mansion we do not buy a striker in Jan.
Damn
I forgot about that bloody thing.
4/6 weeks…………………….not good.
The problem with betting things on the likelihood of new signings is that we all fall into the trap of using Wenger’s signing history as a yard stick, I did this all summer but at the end of the window the stick was broken into a thousand pieces with more signings than that stick could ever be waved at.
I’m waffling, the point is that our signing policy has changed so dramatically: based on the old way of doing things we shouldn’t get another signing until 2013 but by the standards set at the end of the last window we could get three new toys to play with come January.
LB,
I almost hate to say this, but I agree with every word of your 9:04. I think you mean a kind of Henry/Eto type of player! Then I read Raddy’s very disturbing news about The Gerv and that merely strengthens your case.
LB. I sort of agree . My expectation is that we will not sign anyone in the manner we signed Bennie and Arteta. If anyone comes it will be because a long-term target has become available e.g. Hazard.
The reasoning being that I cannot see an area where we need re-inforcement in a hurry.
Micky. Trouble is, what player with the ability of TH/Eto’o (or even the potential to be) will sit on the bench as back-up to RvP?
BR
My suggestion that a new attacker could come in was based on Arshavin leaving, realising that the ACN takes place in the new year it makes sense to keep AA as cover for the Gerv.
I am laughing at the realisation of how easy it is for an Arsenal supporter to talk himself out of expecting a new signing. Moi.
Morning Micky
And if such a player were to come onto the market we would be outbid.
Well that was an enjoyable little blogging session, it is now time for me to do chores.
Me too…. leaves to be collected and burnt. What fun 😦
Ah ha,
The old sitting on the bench chestnut 🙂
If a signing were to both a wide boy and a central player in the mould of LB’s suggestion, then I suspect he would get alot of playing time. I am struggling to see AA staying, so our new man could be both wide and striker, pretty much ensuring playing time every time there is an injury to RvP, Theo or Gerv.
I think Raddy’s Hazard suggestion is very wise.
Sod the high ball into the box.
What is it with AA’ers and leaves. That’s GliC and Raddy. The wind will arrive!
Off out.
Morning chaps and evonne
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