2014 Predictions

Now that all the turkey leftovers have been consumed, and a long football lull has descended upon us, restless minds wander off in strange directions. Me, I spent some time gathering numbers and drawing charts.

The season is more than half gone, and, to the delight of Arsenal fans around the world, our team is still Top of the League. The difficult Christmas period is over, and each Premier League team has played twenty football matches, ten home and ten away. There are eighteen remaining fixtures, nine home and nine away. The end is still far away, but I cannot resist (can you?) contemplating: Will Arsenal remain TOTL at the end of the campaign?

As it stands, the top five teams are: Arsenal, ManCity, Chelsea, Liverpool, Everton. My numbers and charts tell me the following stories.

Everton:

Good away form, but not so good home record. Nonetheless, if they continue with this performance, they should be in contention for that last, coveted CL spot. I predict they will continue with this level of play to place themselves within striking distance of fourth. Projected 72 pts, predicted 72 pts.

everton

[The left axis shows the number of points gained in a match. The right axis shows the point total. Solid lines are last year's results. Dotted lines are my predictions. Stars mean home games.]

Liverpool:

A team with a very good home record, but their away form is the worst of the five teams. If they do not improve, they are looking at a fight for fourth. My prediction is that they surely will raise their away form. Unfortunately for them, in the second half of the campaign Liverpool will host all four of their competitors, which will surely deteriorate their fine home record. As the result, I see them finish firmly out of the top three, and it could be worse for them if Everton create a surprise. Projected 74 pts, predicted 73 pts.

liverpool

Chelsea:

So far, Chelsea has gotten the same point results in the equivalent fixtures last season. If they continue to replicate last season’s results, which saw them dropping points to lower teams, including a home draw against Spurs, it might just get them third like before. Judging by this year’s form, which comprise a formidable home record and a decent away one, Chelsea will be in contention for the title. I see them performing slightly worse at home and better away for a close second place. Projected 82 pts, predicted 83 pts.

chelsea

ManCity:

Ten home wins, a perfect record, marred by a pedestrian away form. Amazingly, compared to the point results from the equivalent fixtures last season, they are +10 and would be the darling of the Swingometer, if it were updated. Furthermore, if they continue to replicate last season’s results, they would saunter off with 88 points and the title medals dangling around their necks. With their current away form, the projection puts them just short in the fight for first. In my view, they will improve their away record slightly, but at the same time, I cannot see them continuing their perfect home record. I’ve marked them down as dropping points to Chelsea, and some lower team, with Southampton the strongest challenger. However I must admit that, with weak conviction, I have marked them down in a few places. They are a strong team, but in my dream world they fall surprisingly to third. Projected 84 pts, predicted 82 pts.

mancity

Arsenal:

A red hot away form, but that home opener loss and the draw to Everton weakens Arsenal’s claim to the title. Even so, if they continue to perform like they did in the first part of the campaign, the projection gives them first place. More realistically, I think their away form cannot continue. With trips to Chelsea, Liverpool, and Everton to come, the away average will fall. On the other side, with the exception of the ManCity visit, the remaining home games should be winnable, including the one against ManU. If—and this is a big “if” I admit, especially considering how Arsenal performed at home last year—the Arsenal manage to turn their ground into a fortress, the long awaited silverware will be arriving this year. Projected 86 pts, predicted 85 pts.

arsenal

Putting it all together, Arsenal stay on top when one uses the home+away form of the previous twenty matches to project the final standings. But as discussed, I don’t think the current form will hold. In my predictions, I have conservatively made all head-to-head matches between the top five to be draws, which might be too conservative. All the nuances aside, I see Arsenal remaining on top at the end as well. (Wouldn’t be an Arsenal fanatic if I didn’t.)

summary

For all that, in both the form projection and my guesstimation, the title race appears extremely tight between the three teams: Arsenal, ManCity, and Chelsea. With the projected/predicted gap no more than four points between first and third, if there are no surprises in form, the final games will again be the deciders: Arsenal at Norwich, ManCity hosting West Ham, and Chelsea visiting Cardiff. The two latter matches seem likely wins for the favorites, which will mean many chewed fingernails for Arsenal fans on the last day.

What do you all think? Am I realistic with my game-by-game predictions? Let the argument begin :D

COYRRG

TwentyTwelve (aka TT)

(*) For comparison, the last column in the table gives the expected point total, if the teams replicated their point results from the ’12-13 campaign for the remainder of the season.

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95 Responses to 2014 Predictions

  1. TwentyTwelve says:

    Some addenda:

    (**) At this juncture with equal number of home and away fixtures, played and to be played, the home/away breakdown doesn’t matter to the math. It will matter at other times as the weighting changes. In other words, that perfect home record wouldn’t matter, for example, if there were only away games left to be played.

    (***) If you think this is scientific, you are fooled. There isn’t enough data. It’s just one mad fan’s attempt at telling a good story to justify his belief in his team. :)

  2. henrychan says:

    Very good and informative post..

    Our big rival is City.. But if we look at their away statistic, they are not so damn good.. And in this second term.. They must againsts Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool, MU and Spurs away.. Only Chelsea home..

    We had more good record away.. We will against Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Spurs away.. MU and City home..

    So.. I think at the end of this season.. We will win the EPL trophy.. hehehe.. Go Gunners..

  3. Galway Gooner says:

    Its going to be incredibly close.
    We have 18 games to go and will need to hit about the 84-85 point mark to win the league (it could take more but that’s where its currently trending) so that leaves us with 40 more points to get in the next 18 games or 2.22 points per game, our first 20 games has us at 2.25 points per game so we can allow ourselves a slight drop in form!
    18 games, look at the fixture list and pick out 13 wins (and a draw or two) and the title should be ours.
    Again, its going to be so close and strangely enough being knocked out of the CL by Munich may make all the difference in terms of squad freshness and focus.

  4. RC78 says:

    Hey guyz – the most solid team in the past few weeks has been Man City and by a mile as well…Their home form will be close to perfect by the end of the season and they are improving their away form as well. At the moment, they are just piling up goals and conceding only few. My main concern is that Touré is really outstanding this year and his supporting cast (Fernandinho, Nasri and Aguero) are also doing well. All and all, they have the best team on paper with the deepest squad as well and it seems the players like to work under Pelligrini. City is our main rival and I expect them to land the EPL :-(

    However, if Arsenal and Chelsea manage to slightly improve their form and bolster the squad in January, the London-based teams will be more than serious EPL contenders.

    As Galway Gunner says, if we get knocked out of the CL by BM, our team may be fresher and this could lead us to EPL glory…

    This EPL is very hard to predict but my gut feeling is that City will win it ahead of Chelsea and Arsenal…

    Let us hope for the best!

  5. Rasp says:

    Brilliant work TT – that is one hell of a maiden post for the site …. congratulations.

    Us not losing a game for the rest of the season and city losing to the totts and Everton shows an impressive level of enthusiasm :) I can’t see anything other than a several to nil result for city against the totts if they persist with 4:4:2.

    I’d have taken a top 4 place after the first game of the season so this level of expectation shows how far we’ve progressed. Having watched the quality of city’s forward play yesterday (without Aguero – their best striker) I have to say that any team that finishes above them will win the league. So my prediction is Arsenal to finish 2nd, unless we can bring in another top quality proven goalscorer in January…… which is unlikely.

    But taking your post in the spirit it is written …. yes Arsenal to win the league and start another unbeaten run to rival the Invincibles :P

  6. Rasp says:

    City …. Aguero, Negredo, Dzeko
    Arsenal …… Giroud, Podolski, Nik (when fit),

  7. RC78 says:

    Rasp – I agree with you. Plus we have lost Walcott so we really need to get someone who is going to chip in and create some goals. Otherwise, City will run away with the league easility…The dream would have been Suarez, of course…

  8. RC78 says:

    City also has some classy subs with the like Navas creating a good amount of chances…

  9. Rasp says:

    Hi RC78, I hate to be so ‘realistic’. City and the chavs have proven that you can buy the league. I reckon that if city were allowed to play a second 11 they’d finish in the top 6. We’ve been punching above our financial weight for years, and now we have some serious money (but not at the level of the oilers) but it has to be spent wisely so I’m sure we’ll do our best to sign our targets in the summer.

  10. Rasp says:

    Suarez would just about have made our team complete. He’s gone now and anyone with aspirations to sign him in the summer is likely to have to shell out more than the Bale money. Jackson Martinez is a fantastic striker …. he may be a possibilty

  11. TwentyTwelve says:

    Thanks all for the comments.

    Henry, agreed ManCity away record is their weakness, but as RC78 pointed out, their away form has improved significantly since the middle of November. Time for the rest of the league to be very worried indeed.

    GG, agreed on most of your points, but with ManCity so formidable—they will have the tie breaker with that huge goal difference—I am not sure if even 84-85 would do it.

    Rasp, I think you have misread the ManCity graph. The losses to Totts and Everton are from the last season. I’ve marked those as draws in my prediction. You’re right though that perhaps it is unrealistic to have no Arsenal loss the rest of the way. Since my prediction gives a two point gap to the good guys, I’m willing to replace one draw with a loss, say, to Chelsea away or ManCity home? :D

  12. Rasp says:

    Sorry TT, what a twerp I am :oops: I like the way you’re thinking.

    It has been a pleasure to add your name to our list of authors … or the roll of shame as Rocky prefers to call it.

    All we need to do now is to add RC98 to the list and AA will have had a very good January transfer period :)

  13. RC78 says:

    Hey there – would be delighted to be part of your list :-) In any case, this is one of the best forums around. People actually talk about football…

  14. Rasp says:

    Excellent RC98, all you need to do is compose an article on any aspect of Arsenal/football that takes your fancy and email it to arsenalnuts@live.co.uk – see the ‘Be our Guest’ tab at the top of the page.

    We will liaise with you as to date of publication and can add pictures, graphs, polls etc. if appropriate …. get typing!

  15. TwentyTwelve says:

    :D Thank you very much, Rasp. I’m really happy to be able to contribute to AA, after having taken advantage of all the wonderful articles and discussions the AA community has provided. My first article on the web.

    Looking back at my predictions, I see a phobia for predicting losses :oops: None of the five teams would suffer a loss the rest of the way. How’s that for being optimistic.

  16. Manthan says:

    Hello all, Very good post by TT. Thank you.

    I am regular to this forum but i don’t comment much, RC78 your comments are so fantastic i have been reading from yesterday. I am looking forward to your post. Coming to the predictions I agree with Rasp until we buy striker we cannot win league.. Man c have a great squad specially toure and augeuro… There away form have improved now.. But I like optimism so you cannot predict anything now. however on current form my prediction is 1. shitty 2. gunners 3.chavs 4. Pool/Everton

  17. Rasp says:

    Aha, very clever – we still finish top :P

    One thing is for sure, there will be more twists and turns … expect the unexpected!

    Theo’s loss could be The Ox’s gain – all of a sudden he could make it to Brazil if he can produce some scintillating performances for the Arsenal for the rest of the season.

  18. Kola says:

    The route to win the league is this simple,save the maths and the permutations,beat City at the Emirates and draw vs Chelsea…Let City v Chelsea decide their fate in EPL.Match their results in every other game(starting with Villa away,I’d love City to stumble at St. James) and we run away with it.City is our biggest threat,but in ARSENE WE TRUST

  19. Rasp says:

    Morning Manthan …. why haven’t you joined the roll of shame yet?

  20. Morning all

    Great post TT and great graphics too.

    Last season the top teams allowed Man U to win the league by being so inconsistent, this season it’s much more competitive and much more fun because we’re in the mix :lol:

    I really enjoyed preparing your post for publication mainly because there was no mention of Man U at all :D we should have given them more of a run for their money last season.

  21. Manthan says:

    Rasp I already posted two article last year, My name from roll of shame is removed may be by mistake :) I will try to write one more article.. I was planning for similar post to what TT has wrote but my god i must TT have given more justice then i would have given :) Moreover my English is not that great it will be head ache for you to edit my post before posting :D :D

  22. Rasp says:

    Manthan …. I’m so sorry, how did that happen? …. and what’s happened to my memory? …. I will reinstate you ASAP

  23. Rasp says:

    Ok ….. done :?

  24. Vinay says:

    I still believe there will be cancellations when the top 4 play one another, i fancy the likes of united and spurs to help us in achieving our objective.City appear favourites but as much as people rave about their offense you got to remember their defense is poor even with Kompany.
    The way to win it this time will be the way united keep winning, beat the rest of the league home or away and limit the damage against fellow contenders, i believe we will do it this way and win the league. City to drop their first share of points against newcastle to start, come on u car”toons””

  25. RC78 says:

    OK – just sent an email out to the indicated address with an article. Cheers, RC78

  26. Norfolk Gooner says:

    Peaches/Rasp, post e-mailed.

  27. Rasp says:

    Thanks RC78 – I’ve replied

    Thanks NG – you’re a diamond ;)

  28. GunnerN5 says:

    TT,

    Well done on your maiden post – its food for fodder to like minded stats geeks.

    You see – I also immerse myself in stats and charts but I am always reluctant to make predictions concerning Arsenal as, like any of us, I always find it difficult to ever predict us losing a game. Therefore any predictions I make would have a subliminal built in positive bias – which in turn would make them unrealistic.

    However l think that neutralizing the top teams games against each other is a flaw in your predictions. There will most certainly be some upsets in those games and in this man’s opinion that is where the EPL will be won or lost.

  29. RC78 says:

    Rasp – indeed hoping that Ox will shine in the second half of the season. Now, he really has a lot of incentives to do so with a good chance to win the EPL and go to the WC.

    As for right wingers, the English team will now look into the following players to start: Townsend and Lennon. However, I believe that our friend OX can really make a push :-)

  30. TT – just heard from one of my favourite spud relatives …… he’s unimpressed that they weren’t included in your excellent post :lol: :lol: :lol:

  31. TwentyTwelve says:

    Kola, I’m of the reverse mindset, mainly because I think we don’t have enough resources as compared to Man City and Chelsea.

    The one thing that would definitely tip it in our favor is the unpredictability of the EPL, i.e. the “upsets”, which we Arsenal fans have experience all too frequently the last few years. Wouldn’t it be nice it that happens to some other “big” team this year. That places me in the Vinay camp of thinking. :)

    Agree with you whole heartedly, Vinay. Perhaps some counter attacking team can exploit that shaky ManCity defense. Yes, please Toons, prove my prediction for this match wrong! :D

    Thanks for all your help with the post, Peaches. I’m happy you approve. :)

  32. TwentyTwelve says:

    Peaches, I could do a graph specially for him, but it might not look pretty :D

  33. MickyDidIt89 says:

    TT

    Love a chart and your has five!!!!

    Thank you very much. I’ve read it, and will give it some deserved thinking time during my drive/meeting/drive back

    Vinay
    Just had a quick read of comments, and you make the point about Utd having an impact. Couldn’t agree more. They’ve got Persie back soon, and I believe they will strengthen. We’ve played them away, so hopefully they will take points from others

  34. 26may1989 says:

    Excellent debut, TT, chapeau pour toi.

    And some interesting follow-up comments posted by others. Like peaches, I was amused by the absence of Man U – that said, while I don’t think they can win the title now, on the basis that they won’t be able to overtake all of the top three plus the Merseyside contingent, I can see them breaking into the top four, and perhaps even getting into third spot if the form of one of the top three nosedives.

    I absolutely agree with Vinay’s comment about Man City’s defence: it is weak for a side tha’is going for the title. Demichaelis and Lescott wouldn’t get near our side, Nastasic is inconsistent and this season, when he’s played, even Kompany has looked out of sorts. Their FBs are good going forward but not great at defending. And we all know about the GK problems they’ve had. Plus Toure and Fernandinho, for all their great work going forward, haven’t been wonderful at providing defensive cover.

    City are most definitely the favourites, and given the resources they’ve had, they should be. Frankly, I think they should be embarassed and ashamed of themselves for only having got one title in the years since the wave of money arrived, and even that one they tried to hand to United. They are epic in attack, no question, but that defence, and the inconsistency it creates, is what gives us and others a chance.

    Can we win if we don’t buy a top quality striker? Yes,literally speaking, we can, the table tells us that, since we’ve played everyone at least once and we’re top. But will we win, if we don’t make a major piece of recruitment now? With Walcott, I would have been reasonably confident that we could give it a good go, but my confidence has been shaken by the injury. However, unknown factors will be critical. So, if we don’t suffer any more big injuries, I would fancy us to hold our nerve and finish top, even if we don’t get a big player in now. But one more injury blow (Giroud, Cazorla, Mertesacker, Ozil, Sagna, Szczesny and the Ox would be the critical names for me) and our chances would drift.

    If Wenger can get a major player in now, and that is a big if, given how difficult it would be to sign the right calibre of player now, it would have a massive effect in terms of shoring up our challenge.

    We have been fantastic in dealing with the sides outside the current top seven (we’ve lost only five points in those 13 games), but our weakness has been our more ordinary form in games against the other sides at the top. On the assumption that Chelsea and City maintain the type of form they’ve reached in the last 6-8 weeks, we need to do better on that front in the second half of the season.

    Like TT, I’m always an optimist, so I see us doing it – it’s going to be tough though!

  35. TT – I’ve pointed out to him that you have credited spuds with taking points off of us, City and Everton …….. so they will have a say in where the title goes. Just wanted to be included I reckon ;)

  36. TwentyTwelve says:

    GN5, thank you for a great comment.

    You are most likely right about the unrealistic assumption that there will be draws between the top teams. I looked at it this way. ManCity has Chelsea home, and given that Chelsea won the reverse fixture, they will play for a draw in this match. Chelsea host Arsenal, and here there could be all out war. A draw does seem unlikely. Arsenal has ManCity at home, but I am reluctant to claim we have enough to win. Given how we have done things this season, I would blasphemously claim that we will play for a draw.

    Against the other two team, ManCity play them away. Thus I didn’t see full marks for City here. Chelsea has Liverpool away and Everton home. Perhaps again a draw for Everton is too much to ask. Arsenal will be away to both Everton and Liverpool. Although I would love a win and a loss from those two games, I wasn’t confident enough to predict that.

    In any case, please forgive this novice attempt at prediction. I’ve never done something like this before, and it probably shows. :) That’s why we have discussion though.

  37. GunnerN5 says:

    Here are the games the current top 7 have to play against each other during the remainder of the season.

    Arsenal:
    Pool -A, Man U -H, Spurs -A, Chelsea -A, Man C -H, Everton -A

    Man C:
    Spurs -A, Chelsea – H, Man U – A, Arsenal -A, Pool -A, Everton -A.

    Chelsea:
    Man U – H, Man C -A, Everton -H, Spurs -H, Arsenal -H, Pool -A

    Liverpool:
    Everton -H, Arsenal -H, Man U -A, Spurs -H, Man C -H, Chelsea -H

    Everton:
    Pool -A, Spurs -A, Chelsea -A, Arsenal -H. Man U -H, Man C -H

    Tottenham:
    Man C -H, Everton -H, Chelsea -A, Arsenal -H, Pool – A

    Man U:
    Chelsea -A, Arsenal -A, Man C – H, Pool -H, Everton -A.

    In summary:

    Arsenal= 4A, 2H.
    Man C= 5A, 1H.
    Chelsea= 2A, 4H.
    Pool=1A, 5H.
    Everton= 2A, 4H.
    Spurs= 2A, 3H.
    Man U= 3A, 2H.

    Man C have the most away games at 5 but in my opinion Arsenal have the worst situation as they play the 1st of their 6 games back to back and then even worse they play the final 4 in consecutive games with 3 of them away.

    This is where the EPL will be won or lost.

  38. GunnerN5 says:

    TT,

    My comments are not intended to be critical they are meant only as an observation. You did a great job.

  39. GunnerN5 says:

    TT, on another point – the studies that I’ve done about either about results against the same team within a season or when compared to previous seasons have indicated that the results are seldom the same – such is the randomness of predictions.

    That’s why the bookies are always the winners, even with just slender margins.

  40. Rasp says:

    Well Akpom won’t be playing against Coventry – he’s gone out on loan to Brentford – I suppose that particular move didn’t do Szczesny any harm.

  41. TwentyTwelve says:

    No worries, GN5. Thanks for the compliment.

    Here’s an interesting permutation. Let’s say Chelsea win against Everton and Arsenal, but lose to ManU (as 26 cleverly suggested is possible). Let’s say that ManCity beat Arsenal as well. Arsenal can still finish top, if they manage to get a win and a draw out of the Liverpool and Everton fixtures. (All other results remain as it.)

    This leaves Arsenal at 85. The two losses instead of draws cost two pts, which are counteracted by the draw+win giving two pts over two draws.

    Chelsea pick up four points but lose three, since I had those fixtures as DDW. They move to 84.

    City pick up two points, moving to 84 also, and they take second on goal difference.

    How’s that! Of course those two back-to-back losses to direct competitors would probably be too much for the psychology of the team. As GN5 said, we have a very challenging schedule ahead.

    26, I agree with you that injuries and burnout are a big concern. One can only hope no more bad things happen on that front. Talent wise I think Arsenal can challenge, but number wise, that’s where City and Chelsea have the advantage.

  42. Gööner In Exile says:

    I feel my swingometer has been usurped :)

    Top work TT, haven’t had time to read the whole post but I looked at the charts and tables and I am very impressed (not least because they say we win the league :D )

  43. GunnerN5 says:

    GIE:

    It has not been usurped just pushed to one side (bar)

  44. GunnerN5 says:

    The Final Prediction

    A low cost budget film crew was shooting on an Indian Reservoir beach about natural psychic abilities of ancient American Indians.
    Suddenly an Indian shows up, walks to the Director and says, “Tomorrow wind Storm, No shooting please. “ Sure enough a storm came and Director saved lots of money.
    A few days later, again shooting preparedness was made and the Indian shows up. “Tomorrow hurricane, no shooting please. ” Sure enough a hurricane came and Director saved the money.
    The amazing accurate predictive ability of the Indian on snow, rain, ice, blizzard, lightning, thunderstorm, was financially benefiting the Director that he got fond of him.
    Now he was reaching towards the climax of the important shooting and waiting for the Indian to come and predict the weather.
    The Indian was no where to be found. So he personally went looking for him and found him in a stinking smoking chimney hut.
    He went inside, bowed to him in a manners of their ancient customs, praised him and prayed that he bless him with the prediction for tomorrow’s finale.

    The Indian says, “Tomorrow no prediction. My Radio broke down please. ”

  45. GunnerN5 says:

    The Weather Man

    A long time ago, in Communist Russia, there was a famous weather man named Rudolf.
    He’s always had a 100% accuracy rate for his forecasts of the Russian weather conditions. His people loved him and
    respected him for his faultless foresight. He was particularly good at predicting rain. One night, despite clear skies, he made the prediction on the 6: 00pm news broadcast that a violent storm was approaching. It would flood the town in which he and his wife lived. He warned the people to take proper precautions and prepare for the worst.
    After he arrived home later that evening, his wife met him at the door and started arguing with him that his weather prediction was the most ridiculous thing she had ever heard. This time, she said, he had made a terrible mistake. There
    wasn’t a cloud anywhere within 10 miles of the village. As a matter of fact, that day had been the most beautiful day that the town had ever had and it was quite obvious to everyone it simply wasn’t going to rain.
    He told her she was to be quiet and listen to him. If he said it was going to rain, IT WAS GOING TO RAIN. He had all
    of his Russian heritage behind him and he knew what he was talking about. She argued that although he came from a proud
    heritage, IT STILL WASN’T GOING TO RAIN.
    They argued back and forth for hours, so much that they went to bed mad at each other.
    During the night, sure enough one of the worst rainstorms hit the village the likes of which they had never seen. That
    morning when Rudolf and his wife arose, they looked out the window and saw all the water that had fallen that night.
    “See,” said Rudolf, “I told you it was going to rain.”
    His wife admitted: “Once again your prediction came true. But I want to know, just how were you so accurate, Rudolf?”

    To which he replied, “You see, Rudolf the Red knows rain dear!”

    (Oh dear! Sorry about that I’ve already got my coat on!)

  46. RC78 says:

    I would like to know which station the Indian was listening to because it seems that his source for the weather forecast is more than reliable, which is highly unusual :-p

  47. RC78 says:

    GN5…I invent such silly jokes…usually, the reaction I get is not so welcoming :-p brace yourself….

  48. GunnerN5 says:

    Osama bin Laden, not feeling well and concerned about his mortality, goes to consult a psychic about the date of his death.

    Closing her eyes and silently reaching into the realm of the future, she finds the answer. “You will die on an American holiday.”

    “Which one?” Osama bin Laden asks nervously.

    “It doesn’t matter,” replied the psychic. “Whenever you die, it will be an American holiday!”

  49. GunnerN5 says:

    RC78:

    I’m well known for swimming against the tide and my skin is so thick you could use it to sole your shoes.

  50. GunnerN5 says:

    Computer Viruses

    The following information is from credible intelligence sources on the latest viruses sweeping across our nation’s information superhighway, so take extreme caution and be on high virus alert at all times!

    THE GEORGE W BUSH VIRUS – Causes your computer to keep looking for viruses of mass destruction

    THE JOHN KERRY VIRUS – Reverses every position each time you turn your computer on

    THE AL GORE VIRUS – Causes your computer to keep counting, recounting, recounting … ad nauseam

    THE BILL CLINTON VIRUS – Gives you a permanent hard drive, with no memory

    THE BOB DOLE VIRUS – Makes a new hard drive out of an old floppy

    THE LEWINSKY VIRUS – Sucks all the memory out of your computer, then emails your best friends about what it did).

    THE RONALD REAGAN VIRUS – Saves your data, but forgets where it is stored

    THE JESSE JACKSON VIRUS – Warns you constantly about illegitimate file reproduction, while illegitimately reproducing files in the background and rhyming it all

    THE MIKE TYSON VIRUS – Quits after two bytes

    THE OPRAH WINFREY VIRUS – Your 300 mb hard drive shrinks to 100 mb, then slowly expands to restabilize around 200

    THE JACK KEVORKIAN VIRUS – Deletes all old files

    THE PROZAC VIRUS – Totally screws up your RAM, but your processor doesn’t care

    THE ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER VIRUS – Terminates some files, leaves, but will be back

    THE MICHAEL JACKSON VIRUS – Attacks only minor files

    THE LORENA BOBBITT VIRUS – Re formats your hard drive into a 3.5 inch floppy, then discards it through Windows

  51. GunnerN5 says:

    Last one for today -But just like
    the ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER VIRUS – leaves, but will be back!

  52. Gööner In Exile says:

    GN5 are you saying my swingometer is like brussel sprouts?

    Now there’s a joke waiting to be told but the Peaches Mum test should be applied before using :D

    For newcomers the Peaches Mum test came about because we had to censor one word on this blog, we decided the blog was more a restaurant than a spit and sawdust pub, as Peaches Mum reads the blog we didn’t want her or others to be offended by excessive profanity or crudity…..admittedly in the haleat of the match even I resort to the odd swear but in the main we try to err on the side of good clean inoffensive fun.

  53. jnyc says:

    TT, that’s your first? You seem like a professional already. Good job.
    I do feel like we need a purchase to put us over the top. Someone to replace theos goals. I think we have a shot without him, but much better with another scorer.

  54. evonne says:

    oh bloody ell TT, did you have to make it so complicated? I was analysing all your charts and thingys only to realise that you predict and project us to win the League!!! That’s all I need to know, can happily skip the difficult bits

    Jokes aside, our complex charts King in Exile is impressed and so am I, thank you TT

    I cannot see Chelsea improving in the second half; the old boys will be getting tired, injuries will set in and chavs will drop points. Soz, but I do not see them as genuine contenders. I firmly believe it will be between us and Shitty, with the later taking the trophy. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but like I said before – a pessimist never gets disappointed.

    Makes me smile you did not even consider Manyoo as genuine contenders :) I really dislike them and hope they finish even below Totts

  55. evonne says:

    GiE – ” even I resort to the odd swear” – what’s that all about? For the newcomers – I saw GiE leading a crowd of thousands swearing their heads off at the Ems

    For Peaches’ mum benefit we replaced the c word with ‘front bottom’

  56. 26may1989 says:

    My daughter tells me I owe her a further packet of sweets every time I swear during a game. At teh Spurs game, I found I was being told the sweets debt had increased without even realising I had sworn again……

  57. evonne says:

    I killed the blo-og, but I didn’t sho-ot Raa-ddy oh no! Oh!
    I killed the blo-og
    But I didn’t shoot no Raa-ddy, ooh, ooh, oo-ooh.)
    Yeah! All around in my home town,
    They’re tryin’ to track me down;
    They say they want to bring me in guilty
    For the killing of the blo-og,
    For the life of the blo-og

    oo-ooh ho ho :)

  58. evonne says:

    26 – no fun watching a game without a few fecks here and there :) My poor old mother only knows 2 words in English, those shouted loudly during games so she can hear them. Let’s hope she should never try to impress anyone with her English :)

  59. Gööner In Exile says:

    I didn’t realise last game at Norwich may be so crucial…..hmmm I’m going to have to move hell and high water to get a ticket in the home end, if not I’ll just wait outside the ground to celebrate with the away boys when they leave.

    2 hours from London via train may even have to host a close of season AA party at Chez Exile.

  60. GunnerN5 says:

    Evonne;

    Man U deserve everything negative that comes their way, I hope they can wear the badge of mediocrity with pride.

  61. RA says:

    Reading GIE’s excellent Post today, I was struck by the neat construction of the salient stats to arrive at pre/decided result.

    Then I found it was not the mighty Quin but a brilliant ingenue called TT.

    The way to resolve this impasse requires a fight between them – and Rasp and Evonne can be their seconds.

    I hope TT is not small. lol

  62. TwentyTwelve says:

    Thanks, jnyc. I’m parroting the styles Ive seen on the net.

    Agreed. It would make me more confident if Wenger can bring in a good striker. As it is, it will be tough, but Arsenal still can do it. :D

  63. TwentyTwelve says:

    Evonne, you should have been able to guess my conclusion; this is an Arsenal blog after all.

    Am glad to hear your view about Chelsea. I was surprised that they came second after all my fiddling. I might be giving them too much respect, and perhaps more importantly, I might have been too negative about City.

  64. TwentyTwelve says:

    Lol, RA.

  65. chas says:

    Totally chartastic post, TT.
    Unbeaten until the end of the season will do me. :)

  66. TwentyTwelve says:

    Thanks, GiE. If you do go to that match, I look forward to hearing what a good time you had :D

  67. chas says:

    Really looking forward to seeing The Ox play football again.

  68. TwentyTwelve says:

    And to hear that Spur fans want a chart for their team too. The post would be five pages long :p

    Why, is going unbeaten so unusual, chas? Didn’t Arsenal already did that not so long ago? :lol:

  69. evonne says:

    TT – ” this is an Arsenal blog after all” – it is indeed :)
    But you’d be surprised how much negativity finds its way here; wait for the next lost game. No, no, of course don’t wait for it, just check it here

  70. TwentyTwelve says:

    The Swingometer is great, GiE. So concise, and sometimes so controversial :) Long may it grace the side board of AA.

  71. TwentyTwelve says:

    Evonne, you didn’t read my article carefully. There will be no more losses! :)

  72. chas says:
  73. Sav from Australia says:

    Very interesting post. Well done mate.

    My simple understanding of the title rivals is that Man City scores lots of goals whilst being somewhat porous in defence. Chelsea under that shithead and his cheating bastards are the masters of grinding a dirty 1 nil win. And we know the referees have started to favour both.

    If I had to guess I would say Chelsea as I see them dropping less points. And my nose smells that with the fall of Man Utd, Chelsea is becoming the new team of the establishment.

    I still think Arsenal will win it and give a big Fuck You to all the doubters, pretenders and cheats. Here’s hoping wishes come true.

  74. Gööner In Exile says:

    Sav the Aussies winning the Ashes back proves anything is possible in sport, if ever there was proof that the pundits can get it wrong this winters series down under. Is it.

    Not one pundit backed anything else than an England win, and after the first days play of the first test they wrote the Aussies off further……it was only when Australia were 2-0 up the pundits started admitting England might not retain the Ashes and then 4 down they finally admitted anything other than a white wash was unfeasible.

    So Aston Villa defeat, gloat, still top write off, still top could do it…..when will anyone over than Arsenal winning the league become unfeasible.

  75. fatgingergooner says:

    My heart says Arsenal but my head has to go with Man City.

    They have the biggest squad and the best strike force. They also have Vincent Kompany back which means their previously average defence will now be solid.

    Hate to say it but I think we might fall just short this season. I would love us to win a Cup though as that could be a springboard for this squad to clean up trophies for the next few years.

  76. TwentyTwelve says:

    Hear, hear, Sav. Chelsea is an interesting case.

    The other day I was reading an article about clear cut chances this season, and amazingly, no Chelsea player was listed. Perhaps the article made a mistake? In any case, their goals have been coming more from Hazard and Oscar than from Torres and E’to. They might still be in an adjustment period, which gives Arsenal an opening.

  77. TwentyTwelve says:

    ffg, yes, City looks excellent on paper, but they have not performed to expectations. Perhaps it is taking Pellegrini some time to work out the PL. I hope that their early stumbles, and a few more along the way, would be enough for Arsenal to pip them. No doubt that would be an outstanding achievement.

  78. arnie says:

    TT: Brilliant, absolutely brilliant, maiden post. :D :D :D Great comments, all. :D :D Unfortunately I could not participate. Apologies. Same situation tomorrow. :sad:

  79. Timmy says:

    Fantastic maiden post TT and fantastic spirit as well.

    Certain factors will obviously determine the consistency of who wins the league

    Squad Depth
    In quality, not only in individual quality, but how the options integrate into the team. Basically Cohesion. This is so important considering fatigue starts setting into the team. It is often said Man City has the best squad depth, which is hard to argue against. But I read somewhere Arsenal has used the most number of player so far this season.

    Team Spirit
    Much maligned and less talked about, the spirit of a Champion takes him to heights few dare attain. This has been chiefly responsible for Arsenal’s position -refusal to accept defeat. 6-3 against Man City is an obvious indication of that-keep pushing in the face of obvious exhaustion and domination. On the flip side, the drive to always dominate in whatever situation, even when it seems hard to do (Cardiff-we may see more of this as teams fear relegation and park the bus). The second half is when its needed the most. This is also called Front running

    Fortune/Luck
    That part that condemns the opponent to misfortune/ill-luck due to errors, deliberate or non-deliberate, from the players, refs or whoever, wherever or whenever.

    Home/away form
    Of the other seven in the top eight, how Arsenal fare against these teams may determine our league position. The same for the rest. Let’s hope for the best.

    Suport
    For those that will be at the Ems, let’s make the grove a fortress and a nightmare for the enemy.

    VICTORIA CONCORDIA CRESCIT

    COYG

  80. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Dear Evonne,

    I spent much of yesterday reviewing my attitude to other people’s babies, and I can now say, from the bottom of my heart, that from here on I find them cute and completely adorable.

  81. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Evonne,

    Now that I’m better, can I be considered back “in play”, so to speak? :-)

  82. kelsey says:

    Great post TT must have taken you ages though there are a lot of ifs and buts.
    Our dismal record of points achieved againat the so called top sides has to improve if we are going to win the league. We have more or less mastered winning ugly and have players returning but I still think we need a clinical striker now but so do Chelsea and Spurs.

    My top 4 are us,City,Chlesa and Liverpool but in which order is another thing.
    Rasp if you are around I read that you have connections with a mole at Arsenal :)
    Unfortunately I no longer have any connections so over to you.

  83. TwentyTwelve says:

    Thanks Timmy, and everyone for your comments and support. I have learned so much from the process, particularly from good feedback by Rasp and GN5. It was great fun for me.

    Micky, what is it that is at stake here? :)

  84. evonne says:

    oh you madman :)
    of course babies are cute, but don’t worry, I spent 50 years thinking otherwise. Wait for your first grandchild :)

    Timmy – add REFS in big letters to your list, they could take/give/distribute many points

  85. evonne says:

    TT – “Micky, what is it that is at stake here?” – quality of his life. Just announce that you find babies cute, much easier for you dear

  86. chas says:
  87. TwentyTwelve says:

    Evonne, I find babies cute :D

  88. TwentyTwelve says:

    even young Clarkson… now that I’ve started down this road.

  89. chas says:
  90. evonne says:

    oi gorgeous, is that not drinking poster a dig at me?

    Watching a Gordie not wanting to move to Australia because of footy. His wife is prepared to leave him, so he is in a trumoil – wife or footbal? I’d advice him to chose footy, he can have many wives yet, but there is only on NUFC :)

  91. chas says:

    Why should it be?
    The one with her arm raised who looks like Harold Wilson scares the beejayzus out of me.

  92. Rasp says:

    Morning all …..

    ….. New post ……..

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