Twelve EPL games left – Where will it all end?

With only 12 games remaining in the Premier League season my assumption is that the current top six teams are the only teams left with a possibility of making the top four positions namely – Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham.

Manchester United appear to have 1st place locked up so they will not be included in the analysis, but their games against the other five teams are included. Therefore the focus will be on Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Manchester City and Tottenham – the five teams fighting for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th places.

In looking at the games remaining for each of the five teams it becomes apparent that the games they play against each other will have a major bearing on the final outcome.

Here are some of the facts about their games against each other –

Arsenal will play – Tottenham away and Everton and Manchester United at home.

Chelsea will play – Manchester City away, Tottenham at home Manchester United away and Everton at home.

Everton will playArsenal away, Manchester City at home and Tottenham and Chelsea away.

Tottenham will playArsenal at home, Everton at home Chelsea away and Manchester City at home.

Manchester City will play – Chelsea at home, Everton away Manchester United away and Tottenham away.

Arsenal have a slight advantage in the games left to play against each other as they only play 3 games whereas the other four teams all have 4 games to play. This means that Arsenal’s opposition will have a slightly higher risk of dropping points against each other.

Tottenham have the advantage in home versus away games as they play 3 at home and 1 away, Arsenal play 2 home games and 1 away, Chelsea play 2 at home and 2 away while Everton and Manchester City both play 1 home game and 3 away.

In terms of points won in their earlier games against each other Tottenham have the worst record getting 0 out of 12, Chelsea gained 7 out of 12 while Everton and Manchester City gained 5 out of 12 with Arsenal getting 4 points out of 9.

My prediction is that in their remaining games against each other, Chelsea will get 5 points out of 12; Arsenal will get 4 out of 9, while Everton, Manchester City and Tottenham will each get 3 out of 12. This is very significant because if my predictions are correct it would mean that Arsenal will drop only 5 points while Everton and Tottenham would both drop 9 points – that positive difference of 4 points could mean a 4th place finish for Arsenal.

Below are my predictions for all of their remaining games – I don’t claim to be a great forecaster so why don’t you make your own predictions.

GN5 spreadsheet

Written by GunnerN5

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99 Responses to Twelve EPL games left – Where will it all end?

  1. LB says:

    Hi Kelsey

    My view on what happened to Fàbregas was in line with what you said above. It makes sense that Wenger was the person who told the board that Cesc should be allowed to leave.

    We all know there was only one club he would have gone to, I can’t imagine any one would differ in their view from that and because of the lack of competition we were always going to have to accept a lower price than his true value, once again I can’t imagine anyone would challenge that view.

    Must read today’s post now.

  2. Gooner In Exile says:

    GN5 thanks for the post and thanks for doing it, as I had been playing with the idea but finding the time was difficult, I have predicted the run in for us in the same way you have, I have Spuds doing slightly better and Chavs slightly worse (mainly because I put their match as a draw) I also put Spuds down for a win against Everton at home.

    My predictions went on the tail of yesterday’s post, it’s going to be tight but our run of games gives me confidence, however we were shocking in some of those fixtures last season (Swansea A, Fulham A, Norwich H, Wigan H) and will really need to improve our focus for a consistent spell to take the CL spot.

  3. Manthan says:

    Great Post GN5,
    I guess Arsenal will finish either 3rd or 4th… We have only two bigs game left dis season. MANU at Home and Totnum Away.. Totnum hav pool,chav and citeh wheras Chav has pool,manure,totnum and citeh… I dont think everton will fight for top4 now.. They are loosing form agian they drew with astonvilla and lost to MANURE… Citeh is likely to finish second…. So only arsenal,chav and Totnum are remains for last two place… Big game for us will be agaisnt Totnum if we win our chances of getting into top 4 will be more…. Anyhow Totnum only have bale performing now they are totally depended on him… Wheras we have all front four in top form so i really think we will finish in top4.. Fingures Crossed :D :D

  4. Peter Weston says:

    Interesting you think Arsenal will beat Everton but none of the other top four contenders will. Not sure if you’re equipped to handle an on form felani. We shall see.

  5. Manthan says:

    Gie,
    Rightly said he have small opponents to play but dis season is very unperdictable… If we show same same siprit what we showed agaisnt stoke and sunderland we are good to go.. Next 12 games will be very tense………..

  6. Thanks for the post N5 – and as a much hated(by me especially) Govan shop steward would say “It’s squeaky bum time”.

    Peter W, it looks like wishful thinking but we are Arsenal fans and would therefore not be free from bias.

  7. Gooner In Exile says:

    Kelsey I have not bollixed your story, I am sorry if I gave that impression I was analysing them (the latest titbits on Miquel and Vermaelen) individually and collectively, and asking myself why Miquel would leave, and then that if Vermaelen was leaving whether Miquel could be convinced to stay.

    As LB often said Theo went through a very protracted period of option weighing, and I guess we should expect that of any player.

    I know last season you felt I disparaged your Dempsey story, but I need to clarify that I never doubted that Dempsey had been told by his agent that Arsenal were interested, my question was whether that was true or not or was the agent perhaps telling porkies about who was interested to get the player in the mindset of a move.

    Agent : I can get you a move
    Dempsey : Great CL football?
    Agent : yes yes, Chelsea and Arsenal are both interested
    Dempsey : great lets tell Fulham I’m looking to leave.

    Couple of months later

    Agent : Erm Liverpool or Tottenham
    Dempsey : They aren’t in CL
    Agent : No but they’ll pay £20k more than you’re on
    Dempsey : I’m not moving to Merseyside

  8. Predictions never go the way you think they will… Good facts at 1st but all points after that are useless.

  9. Shubham says:

    Interesting post GN5,

    Though a lot can happen in the remaining 12 games, I would hazard a guess that Arsenal will finish amongst the top 4. March will be key for our final standings in the EPL. Everton seems most likely to fall out of contention as they are too dependent on Fellaini. Also Chelsea can surprise many by claiming 2nd spot. Man City at the moment seems devoid of any confidence and if this slump continues, then they will get dragged into 3 & 4th spot dog fight. Tots are doing very well at the moment but a couple of bad results can play havoc. Finally, my justification for Arsenal that the team has had terrible results all along but have still rumbled on. There is some resilience built in which will see us gather enough points to get top 4 position.

  10. My wish for tomorrow ? For lady boy Ronaldo to tear the Mancs a new one.

    That’d make me smile. :)

  11. Sorry for being the pessimist but I cannot see i going over 70 points at the end of the season..we need Spurs to slip up and yes the NLD is a MUST MUST Win.

  12. kelsey says:

    GIE

    I wasn’t accusing anyone in particular especially you so maybe bolloxed was the wrong word to use :)

    Predictions GN5:

    So many factors to take into account. our current state of injuries (and other teams)- possible 4 minumim FA Cup games and at least 2 CL games which if that happens is another 50% added to the 12 PLgames remaining.
    I think it will be mighty close even goal difference may play a factor.

  13. Please... says:

    It is pretty obvious that Arsenal will drop points against West Brom, QPR or Norwich. Not to mention Swansea? Newcastle are a different animal as well. Nope, no CL for you next season…

  14. anonymous says:

    Arsenal going 10-1-1 down the stretch, surely you are having a laugh. I get it is an Arsenal site but try and be a little objective. I don’t see what so far in this season would lead you to believe they will win 10 out of 12. They may be favored in those matches but we see multiple upsets every week.

  15. anonymous says:

    Sorry, just saw you had them with 9 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Still rather optimistic

  16. Gooner In Exile says:

    Please…… If you’re as I suspect a Spurs fans I wouldn’t get too carried away, your team has a history of finding new ways to self capitulate every season.

  17. wakeupandsmellthecoffee says:

    This is an embarassing pile of goon toilet….How can Arsenal have picked up 4 points from 9 in games already played against the 4 rivals for top four, yet only have 2 games left to play against them in the last 12? I think you’ll find you’ve only taken 5 from a possible 18.

    You said you were not including Man U in the analysis but they are included in you predictions for the teams still left to play them, yet you don’t include them in your stats for points won so far, but do include them in points available in the last twelve games? What a mess.

    Lastly, you predict Arsenal winning 7 out of their last 8 games with only one loss in the last twelve…..

    ….Oh, hang on, I’ve figured it out.. this is the great Arsenal delusion that people have been talking about. Time for your medication I think.

  18. Matt says:

    So Arsenal are going to get 29 points from a possible 36 remaining, only dropping 7 points? At roughly 2.4 pts per game!

    And Winning 9 or their remaining 12!

    This is a team with 12 wins from 26 and averaging 1.65 points per game!

    No real surprise you’re a Gunners fan…

    Totally agree with your prediction on spurs…I did it to and also expect them to finish around 69/70 points…But it’s going to be extremely tight with Arsenal…Who I don’t expect to go past 70 points…

    The Derby will be huge…If Spurs win or draw it’s game on…If they lose to Arsenal, it’s a huge “Advantage Arsenal” and they will likely finish above Spurs.

    But to predict that Arsenal…A team battling to find a decent striker (yes, like Spurs)…Will automatically get 3 points from teams like Newcastle, West Brom, Fulham, QPR (and all of these AWAY!) is a pipe dream…Get 70 points and 3rd is likely to be wrapped up…That’s your challenge Arsenal…26 Points from a possible 36 and 4th should be yours…

    As a Spurs fan…the race for 4th is going to be incredibly tight! Spurs need 22 pts but have some really tough fixtures…The race is on Gunners!

    If you’re good enough, good on you….

    Bring on the 3rd of March!!

  19. We’ll anonymous and Please, you’ll like me ‘cos I don’t think (based on the current situation) that Arsenal will get top 4.

    Sorry to be a doomer(again/as usual).

    And as for “wakeup…yadayadayada” – can I tin tack him, he’s already tiresome and sounding like a frightful bore ?

  20. 26may1989 says:

    Objective? What the hell’s the point of that?

    I’ve re-run my own predictions and they are now reaching nutty levels of optimism, with us repeating what we did last season and achieving a solid 3rd spot, ahead of Chelsea, Spurs and Everton. It’s one of those annoyingly accurate cliches that there are no easy games, but looking at it objectively (I can, honestly) we have an easier run-in than our rivals. Getting points from the matches vs Spurs and Everton is vital but the head of steam we have built up can continue through February, March and April. I do believe we can do as well as GN5 (who’s not generally an over-optimistic type) predicts.

    I think one of the best reasons we will do well in the run-in is that our players know how much they have already thrown away this season, they know they are much better than they showed in much of the first half of the season. I didn’t see much complacency on Saturday or in general recently. That will motivate them. Momentum is everything now.

  21. 26may1989 says:

    Interesting contrast of consecutive posts: wakeupandsmellthecoffee thinks he/she needs to insult the author’s efforts in order to make a point, whereas matt (a Spurs fan) debates the points and sets out his arguments. Matt, well done – we’ll see which one of our teams comes out on top, and I genuinely hope you finish 4th to our 3rd! wakeupandsmellthecoffee, go away and learn some manners.

  22. Foreverfotball says:

    Dream on! You have to be a Arsenal supporter to believe in this analyses. What makes you think that Arsenal will get 29 points from the last 12 games? So far Arsenal have 44 points in 26 games. If your prediction is right the average point pr match would increase from 1,7 to more than 2,4 in the remaining season. Why? How? New star players in the transfer window? New coach? Easier remaining matches for Arsenal? In my view there are no easy matches in PL anymore. Playing against potential relegation teams at the end of the season could prove to be harder than facing a team on the upper half of the table. Are Arsenal in the best form compared to their rivals? Looking at the form table for the last six matches Chelsea, Man C and Spurs all have more points than Arsenal. In fact Spurs have not lost any of their last 10 PL games. What makes you think Spurs will stop winning games? Bale injured or lack of desire to play in CL? I think Man C is the team you really can question. They have only taken one point in the three last matches and the league title ambitions are now beeing smashed. But will Arsenal be able to close the gap on nine points to City? Probably not.

  23. Matt says:

    Agreed 26may1989…Football is not about slating your opponent…It’s about enjoying your own success…An interesting option you’ve raised to…We’ve been overlooking something not that far fetched:

    The Chelsea implosion…While they have a great squad, it’s not that far fetched with many of their fans (and possibly players) doubting the new manager!

    3rd is realistically up for grabs…

    I have quite a few Arsenal fans as mates and we all agree it’s going to go down to the wire!

    One small correction…I said 70 will get you 3rd (I meant 4th)

  24. Gooner In Exile says:

    I think some of these Spurs fans need to look to the graph on the right that shows our seasons compared, last season we were in a very similar points per game position as were this, yet we got the job done, and arguably it should have been much more comfortable had we won those silly games at the end which we should have.

    All together now:

    There were ten tottenham points in the gap
    Ten tottenham points in the gap….

  25. LB says:

    Some of the comments make me laugh the way they say things like “The author must be an Arsenal fan”.

    Doh, I would have thought the name of the site gave a bit of a clue.

  26. LB says:

    I think whoever wins at the Lane will get 4th place.

  27. Gooner In Exile says:

    What if its a draw LB?

  28. Matt says:

    If it’s a draw…We have two and a half months of nail-biting ahead!

  29. LB says:

    GIE

    Then we get it of course ;)

  30. henrychan says:

    GunnerN5..
    If we want to beat Spurs.. and be at the big-four.. then we must win the battle away.. no more one point.. We can beat them again for 5-2 score.. hehehe..
    We can do that also to Swansea.. We can take a vegeance away.. And prove them that their just lucky winning 2-0 at Emirates..
    And both of them will not playing a stoke or sunderland football.. They are to proud of them self.. and will go for a open war games..
    And you know bro.. We are good at that kind of games.. hehehe..

    And my bro.. why are you so afraid of MU.. Arsenal will not lose to Mu at home.. Today Arsenal is different from the last 4 or 5 months behind.. we are much stronger and getting more and more stronger.. Believe me.. Even Muenchen will go down.. hehehe..

    WBA is the one that have to be noted.. They play such uneasy football.. So in the last 12 games we will only got one point again MU and WBA.. And that means 32 point.. hehehe.. 76 points alltogether.. And we be at third.. hehehe..
    City and Soton will make Chelsea suffered.. believe me..

  31. 26may1989 says:

    Foreverfotball, you criticise GN5 for projecting an increase of points per game from 1.7 per game in the first 26 games to 2.4 points per game in the last 12 fixtures. I’ve just had a look at what happened in this phase last season:

    Arsenal points per game after 26 games: 1.769

    Arsenal points per game in final 12 games: 2.0

    What won us 3rd place last season was a run of nine wins in ten games from the 24th to the 33rd games. That equates to 2.7 points per game over a number of games pretty similar to that remaining now and in a similar phase of the season. Looking at the figures, 2.4 points per game, while very much on the optimistic side, looks doable.

    Is the prediction for the run-in optimistic? Yes, but does last season suggest it’s feasible to reach and better the 70 points we got to reach 3rd. We threw away points right at the end last season, with just one win in the final five games, but we can improve on that.

    I have plenty of frustrations over our players’ mentality in the earlier parts of the season, but it is a fact that they’ve been through these challenges plenty of times before and succeeded, they have experience and fortitude for the sorts of challenges required to get a CL spot. Chelsea finished 6th last year, and Spurs (as any Spurs fan will confirm) have a long track-record of choking, even if they were very unlucky to miss out on CL football this year.

    Nothing is certain for us, but there is good reason to think we can do it.

  32. 26may1989 says:

    Matt, of course, the most realistic scenario is that City will finish 2nd and Chelsea 3rd, leaving our clubs plus Everton to battle for 4th. But there is a fragility about Chelsea, and even City aren’t 100% nailed on. Whichever club can keep the momentum going through the final phase will prevail!

  33. GoonerB says:

    Well done GN5. An interesting topic and it was obviously going to raise some debate.

    I am not surprised that it has drawn some Spurs supporters on here as it directly involves analysis on themselves. I think the general responses from the Spurs fans on here are measured and well argued, and I too think it will go down to the wire. This is a bit of fun to try and bring some optimism to the final 12 or so games of the season and, lets be fair, if we were 4 points clear and saw an article showing a reversal of positions on a Spurs site we would probably have something to say about it as well.

    I agree that there are too many variables and potential upsets to acurately predict this and GN5 intimated as much so we all have to look at this with a slight pinch of salt.

    Over and above who has to play who and looking at factors of recent performances I have felt that Spurs have been overly reliant on Bale over the last 2-3 games and without him they would have dropped points. If he stays fit it may be hard to make up the difference but I would ask the Spurs fans if there is a general feeling of worry over what would happen if Bale gets injured. Conversely one of the things that has pleased me about Arsenal recently is that the team seem to be sharing responsibility and goals.

    The question would be can Arsenal more easily absorb an injury to a key player than Spurs can with Bale?

  34. GunnerN5 says:

    Morning All:

    It’s a bright and early 6:00am here in Canada.

    Seems like someone stirred up a hornets nest over there?

    Predictions are one persons best guesses, obviously with me being a staunch Arsenal supporter any bias will be in our favour. However much of my “bias” has been caused by our recent run of form where we have shown great heart and resilience against some very rough and physical teams.

    Another big factor that I took into consideration was the vast improvement in form shown by both Walcott and Wilshere, they seem to have lifted the spirits of the whole team.

    Unlike our rivals we are not dependent on one player, we have Wilshere, Walcott, Cazorla, Giroud, Podolski who can all be game winners, Gervinho is back from a good ANC and will add yet another dimension to our game. If Bale gets injured Tottenham will be in dire straights whereas one major injury will have a far lesser impact on Arsenal.

    Optinistic, biased, – why not I’m an Arsenal fan.

  35. LB says:

    Interesting GB

    Do we a have a player who is as influential to us as Bale is to spuds?

  36. LB says:

    Ahh, GN5 just answered that question.

    Morning GN5, good post.

  37. GunnerN5 says:

    Morning London in London from GN5 in London.

  38. SunnyK says:

    Bold prediction but the recent form table suggests that arsenal won’t make it.Except for Everton, all the other teams are ahead. I watched your last game vs Sunderland. You guys were lucky to get away there. If that’s the football you guys are going to play…..Dream On.

  39. GoonerB says:

    LB, you know who I am going to say don’t you you little rascal? Shall I put on the Rule Brittania music?

  40. Matt says:

    GoonerB…You are spot on mate…I metioned to a friend only yesterday that if we lost Bale for anything more than say 2 or 3 games over the next 12…We’re probably doomed.

    And yes, Spurs do have a habit of choking…But I do get the impression that with AVB and some of the new players like Dembele and Vertonghen(Holtby also looks a steely sort that will fight until he drops) that Spurs just have that bit more of a backbone and this does give me more optimism than in previous seasons that we could just see it through…

    We had a difficult start to the season…AVB was under massive pressure and a few bad results had the media calling for his head…but he and the players turned it around…and all season he’s been able to absorb the bad results and keep the players looking forward…I personally have been very impressed by AVB and his handling of the club as well as his signings…And a tip of my hat to Dan Levy for having the balls to fire Harry and hire a young outcast…

    Wenger is a legend….and I’ve watching him enviously for years…but I do think we now have a manager and a team to stare Wenger and his boys in the eye…

    I can’t believe we will again implode as we did last season…and while we’re talking injuries to Bale…I don’t wish it on Arsenal or the lad but, what if you lost Wilshire again?

    I’m confident Spurs will reach 69/70 points…If it’s not good enough, so be it!

  41. LB says:

    “Wenger is a legend….and I’ve watching him enviously for years”
    (Matt, Spurs Fan)

    I am not sure that even I, one of the most ardent Wengerites, can improve on that.

  42. 26may1989 says:

    SunnyK, lucky? If you mean Sunderland were lucky we only scored one goal from our 19 attempts, +60% possession and +500 completed passes, I’d agree…..

    Szczesny may have had to make some saves at the end but we should have been three or four goals up by then. Anything less than three points for us would have been extremely unlucky, we dominated the game.

  43. GoonerB says:

    Well said Matt. You never know but maybe the Chavs will implode and the whole of North London can rejoice and be happy.

  44. Matt says:

    Lol LB…Sometimes the truth hurts me!

    Good debate but it’s time to get back to work…So I’ll leave your Arsenal site to you Gunners…

    Here’s to a great run-in and an epic game at the Lane on 3 March…

    And as a final parting shot: COME ON YOU SPURS!

    : )

  45. 26may1989 says:

    Matt

    I’d love Vertonghen to be in N5 not N17! Quality player. Holtby? We’ll see. But AVB is definitely a significant upgrade on Harry the Twitch.

    Bale is a fantastic player and he may well be able to drag Spurs across the line. Last season, I got pretty pissed off with people using van Persie’s genius as a means to criticise us, on the basis we were a one-man team. There was of course some truth in it, and that was unhealthy for us, but van Persie wasn’t some random event, he’d been recruited and nurtured over years, he was ours. It doesn’t take a genius to see that Spurs are in the same position now (Redknapp said it, so it can’t be difficult to spot). The fact is they have one of European football’s brightest talents right now. They may not be able to keep him much longer but they deserve to reap the rewards that come from having recruited him in the first place. Yes, if he gets injured, they will be in trouble, and the squad looks on the thin side, though a return to form for Adebayor could mitigate that. But overall, I think Spurs deserve to finish in 4th spot, tucked in behind us…..

    If we lost Wilshere? It would be a real blow but with midfielders like Arteta, Cazorla, Rosicky, Diaby, Coquelin, Ramsey and Oxlade-Chamberlain to call on, we’d be able to cope.

  46. henrychan says:

    @ SunnyK.. Will Spurs play another openwar games..?? Usually your team did.. But I’m afraid not again Arsenal in march.. I don’t think so.. I think Spurs will try to utilize Bale from a counter-attack game.. hehehehe.. But it won’t work anymore.. Arsenal are stronger now in defence.. And we can easily make Bale offside.. hehehehe.. And as many of my fellow said.. be carefull about Bale.. he may get injure anytime.. and Spurs will be suffer a lot.. hehehe..

  47. Manthan says:

    LB,
    Same point made me laugh too blog clearly maintains arsenal arsenal so obviously a gunner would have written the blog…. ;-)

  48. Matt says:

    And agreed May…The loss of Wilshire would be big…but not as big as Bale’s….

  49. Manthan says:

    After benkete admitted that he is gunner fan now comes sissoko http://www.newcastleunited-mad.co.uk/news/tmnw/sissokos_arsenal_dream_783137/index.shtml

  50. GoonerB says:

    Matt, do you think the loss of Bale would be greater because you have less cover for him than we do for Wilshere, or because he is currently playing at a higher level than our Jack. It is perhaps a little unfair to directly compare them as they are slightly different players who will influence games in different ways.

    I have to admit that I was discussing it with Rasp at the weekend and I did say that if offered one player in the EPL I would take Bale.

  51. GunnerN5 says:

    Matt,

    Thank you for your input, very civilised and reasonable comments.

  52. colario says:

    Not mentioned and not to be overlooked is Swansea who are playing well and will play Arsenal,(h) tots (h), Chelski(a) Mancs (h) They are strong enough to upset the apple cart any of those teams. Manure could much to red face’s chagrin actually help Arsenal. I would love that.

  53. GunnerN5 says:

    Looking at Spur’s stats I was surprised to see that they had lost all of the previous games they have left to play against the top six teams.

    They have a really tough run in playing Arsenal, Liverpool, Swansea, Everton, Chelsea and Manchester City in a six week period, they simply will not get through those games without dropping points.

    Their last 3 game are against Southamton, Stoke and Sunderland, not very easy!

    My predictions may appear overly optimistic but I would not want to swap our remaining fixtures for their’s.

  54. Foreverfotball says:

    GunnerN5: All teams are dependent of their star players, but Spurs has played 4 PL matches without Bale and earned 6 points. Although Bale has scored 13 goals and is in superform, more than 70% of the goals scored for Spurs is not made by Bale. He has only made 1 assist in the season so far, but his impact on the team is of course very high. Spurs fans would worry even more if Dembele got injured. Spurs has not lost one single PL game with Dembele on the pitch (lost against Everton in Dec but Dembele was substituted 15 minutes before the end and at that time Spurs where leading 1-0). Lennon is another great player and Spurs is not depending on one man only.

  55. TERRY MANCINI HAIR TRANSPLANT says:

    Nice stuff GN5

    For me Spurs have tha advantage. A four point lead, they play us at there place, and we have extra games in the Champions league and FA Cup. Ok thy are in the Europa but i cant imagine them taking that seriously.

    Saying all that we will still get fourth. Why? because divine destiny has proclaimed we are better than them and always shall be. We know it, and deep down they know it too.

    And of course there is also the little fact that we are a better team. That tends to help in these things. hahaha

  56. GunnerN5 says:

    Foreverfootball,

    I appreciate the tone of your comment, your type of reasoned response leads to further dialogue whereas some of your fellow supporters comments simply fall of deaf ears.

    I watch most Spurs games that are televised here in Canada and frankly I’ve been impressed by their style of play.

    Bale has been a complete standout in the past few weeks – which led to my comments.

    I still maintain that in this “run in” period we have the easier schedule and we also have a bigger and better squad to call upon. For example we no longer have a main striker, we now have many, so losing one will have far less effect on us than it would Spurs.

  57. Red Arse says:

    Excellent, GN5, :-)

    Well explained and clearly stated!

    The table you have presented is a very neat summary too, and frankly second guessing your predictions would simply be nit picking.

    I will go with what you forecast!! :D

  58. Matthew says:

    I think spurs will gain more points then stated here, and arsenal and Chelsea are given points if all goes without a single hitch in games that are should wins! I see arsenal and Chelsea struggling myself!!

  59. Bayonne Jean says:

    GN5: The outcome of the ManU fixture at the Emirates will probably be influenced by a few outside factors. They may well have clinched or virtually clinched the EPL, and the fixture is sandwiched between CL semifinal fixtures. So odds are that the Purple Proboscis would go with a lesser lineup if they survive RM and their quarterfinal draw, and he may want to hold out RVPonce, so he doesn’t get a swelled from all the adulation he’ll receive at the Ems. So what does everyone think: does BSR sit in Manchester if the match is an EPL dead rubber for them?

  60. GunnerN5 says:

    A few further facts to add to the prediction pie.

    These are the stats for the five teams in the first games they played against the teams they still have to play.

    Chelsea – W7, D4, L1, Pts 26.
    Everton – W3, D7, L2, Pts 16.
    Man C – W8, D3, L1, Pts 27.
    Spurs – W6, D1, L5, Pts 19.
    Arsenal – W6, D3, L3. Pts 21.

    So , as we all know, Arsenal will have to up their game to knock Spurs out of 4th place.

    I see the “run in” as being very intense but I will still give the edge to Arsenal based on squad depth and experience.

  61. GunnerN5 says:

    Bayonne:

    Rudolph’s Purple Proboscis – Purrfect!

    You make a good point and I was torn between giving us a point from the game, but it may well be a game that we have to go all out to win and getting points from that game would be an unexpected bonus.

    I really hope that RVP does not show his face at the Emirates, we need to concentrate on the game and not have him as the center of attraction.

  62. RockyLives says:

    Lovely stuff Gn5
    Like Redders, I’m happy to go with your predictions – and I agree we have a much better run in than the Spuds.

    Nice to have some civilised Spudders on here. I hope you finish fifth, but well played for some sensible discussion chaps :)

  63. RockyLives says:

    Our +7 goal difference ove the Spuds could turn out to be very useful…

  64. jnyc says:

    If there were just one match left, i wouldnt feel confident predicting the outcome. Just remember the run in last season. It was maddening. I think we and the others will drop more points than expected. I pray that you are right GN5

  65. Didier Kyony says:

    Well, the prediction for Spurs run is quite realistic and we all have to agree that the prediction on Arsenal is a bit optimistic. So let’s say we remove 2 wins and replace them with 1 loss and one draw. That’s 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses which will leave us tied with Spurs on 69 points. Our much superior goal difference will still get us the 4th position!

  66. GunnerN5 says:

    Keep the faith New York, our team is considerably better than the team that splutterd earlier on in the season – I can feel in in my old bones.

    My years of support are limited so they need to come through before I come to an end.

  67. GunnerN5 says:

    Didier,

    I approve of the way you format your stats!

  68. GunnerN5 says:

    Rocky/Didier.

    Goal difference may well be the determining factor, if we are tied on goal difference then goals scored is the next tie breaker and we have scored 6 more than Spurs.

  69. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Brilliant timing GN5.
    Thing is this, I got a bit cheesed off with GiE’s Predictometer, as the last time I looked his wretched machine had us tooling along 7th in Division 2.
    So, only last night, I did my own, and had us 3rd. The brilliant thing about my machine is that there was no machine, in fact, I didn’t even have to look at the fixtures. I intuited the whole thing.
    Therefore your excellent post has added some much needed meat to my thinking, and although I have turned two of your Arsenal victories into draws, I still have us pipping Spurs on goal difference.
    A happy summer awaits

  70. 26may1989 says:

    I don’t really know why we’re fretting about all this, our place in next year’s CL is guaranteed, given that we’re going to be crowned European Champions at Wembley on 25 May…….. :)

  71. MickyDidIt89 says:

    26
    Nobody doubts that for a moment.
    The fun is in ensuring Spurs understand there is a divine order.

  72. GunnerN5 says:

    26m/MD989,

    The unspoken, by me, concern is that the the longer we stay in the cup competitions the less likely my predictions are to come to fruition.

    I seriously want us to stay in the Champions League as I relish all of the games played against some of the best teams in Europe.

  73. GunnerN5 says:

    Just finished preparing dinner for this evening – so that I can relax and watch the CL games this afternoon.

    A real simple, but very tasty meal, one inch thick center cut boneless loin pork chops with a zillion veggies in the slow cooker.

  74. 26may1989 says:

    GN5, ignoring your cruel post about cooking delicious food, which just makes me feel unjustifiably hungry, you raise an interesting point about the cup games and the potential for distracting our focus from league position. But I see it a bit differently: I think the players’ confidence and cohesion will continue to grow with more and more victories and good performances, wherever they come.

    One of our important results last season was that fantastic home game against Milan, where we very nearly turned over a 4-0 deficit – that first half was utterly fantastic, and if some Dutch numpty (forgotten his name) hadn’t missed an absolute sitter in the second half, we’d have at least taken that match into extra time. But more importantly, our players and fans drew a huge amount of confidence from that game, confidence that helped us win a load of league games and secure our third spot.

    Logic says we stand little chance against Bayern next week (they’re 15 points clear in the Bundesliga, have won every game in 2013, scored zillions of goals and haven’t conceded a single goal since Christmas etc), but I feel really excited about the tie. We may not get through to the next round but I think the players will go into the match with the right attitude, and that will feed back into our league performances.

    Told you I get a bit over optimistic……

  75. Norfolk Gooner says:

    I think we can scrape past Spuds into fourth place. Much as I would love to see Arsenal in the Champions League final I don’t honestly think it is going to happen. The FA Cup is a realistic target and can be combined with a top four finish.

    Amazingly, as I typed this comment the grey gloomy clouds over Norfolk have started to move away to the west and a clear sky is spreading from the east. A good omen I think! :D

  76. MickyDidIt89 says:

    GN5 and 26,
    I side with 26 here, although hope any Cup defeats don’t have an adverse reaction regarding confidence, however much fresher it may leave the players.

  77. GunnerN5 says:

    I think it’s six of one and half a dozen of the other, but I would still prefer us to finish in the top four, however if we achieve that and win a cup – all the better.

  78. MickyDidIt89 says:

    Cups GN5, Cupssss, ssssss :-)

  79. GunnerN5 says:

    MD89 –

    Mia Culpa………..

  80. GunnerN5 says:

    Did you know?

    Sagna made 15 clearances against Sunderland, the most by any Arsenal player in a Premier League game this season.

  81. Big Raddy says:

    GN5.Great work. Anything which shows the natural world order works well with me.

    I am not one to speculate, preferring to “live in the day”, but it seems clear that the NLD will go a long way towards deciding the CL spots

  82. LB says:

    I love that picture up there of a “Gooner is Born”, it makes me feel good every time I look at it.

  83. 20/20Vision says:

    ‘Saint Totterings day’ or will it be ‘P-arse-over’ for the 1st time since the last millenium? Don’t defences ever twig that (diving cheat) Bale is very weak on his right side and then block his left side forcing him onto his right? (does anyone here still think 911, like the official story goes.was a surprise attack masterminded by the famous former clockend season ticket holder recently dispatched mafiosi style co. prez Obama?)

  84. Sheep Hagger ™ says:

    Hi nice post .
    4th is possible so we must go for it lets focus on the fa cup this weekend first .

  85. Rasp says:

    Where did we get the idea that refs are tougher on the continent – the grappling in the box that the ref has allowed Juve to get away with is an absolute disgrace.

  86. Gooner In Exile says:

    Rasp I think they just allow a different type of foul, boot above shin height = foul, wrestling in the box = cosmopolitan culture

  87. Rasp says:

    Hmmm, wrestling anywhere else on the pitch would be a foul – is it official then, do the rules differ for infringements in the penalty area?

  88. he was probably paid off Rasp. I’m starting the think half the players are drug cheats too.

    great post

    Some deluded gooner must have written it :)

  89. GunnerN5 says:

    GM:

    Delusion seems like reality when you get past 70…………..

  90. Gooner In Exile says:

    Rasp weirdly it seems to be the unwritten rule of football, look at YaYa’s lean into the Saints player on Saturday evening. He shoulder charged the attackers back, anywhere else that’s a foul.

    And the one I love the most, he shouldn’t get the penalty he wasn’t going to get the ball (for the ones where an attacker toes it off towards the corner flag and waits for the crunch), but every time a forward slides into a defender making a clearance up the touch line it’s a free kick.

    With the stories of corruption in the air at the moment I think GMs take on last nights match will be quite common.

  91. Dgob says:

    Again,

    I’d just like to praise you on the quality of your blog. You seem a rare blogger in these times: able to focus on facts while remaining ‘supportive’ of the club that we all seem to love – albeit in different ways (analogous to the range in true love – from doting husbands to wife beaters). Many others have now drifted to the dark side and allow their opinions to be influenced by negative perspectives before peddling these with seeming lack of concern regarding the potential impact of those infections that they so readily pass on.

    On the facts, we’re starting to become a team and the run in to the end of the season seems promising. I agree, third or fourth is still within our grasp.

    Fingers crossed

  92. kgooner says:

    Hello everyone. Bit late on the discussion but at this crucial time when we’re fighting for top 4, a positive contribution would go a long way.

    I believe our major challenge will be the away game to spurs. Am not too worried about the manures on our home turf…i’m sure we’ll beat them. We’re a much better team since we last met and have new/equivalent to new signings. They lead by 12 points and can afford the 3 point loss.

    Some of the ‘visitors’ here wouldn’t notice our better form. See, when you follow a club and watch all their games, you’re likely to notice progress that the ‘visitors’ would label delusion. I don’t think they see this progress. Gibbs is out for some weeks but he’ll be back just when we need to win games consistently.

    Spuds have a tougher run. Against teams in fighting for top 4.

    I predict 4th by a late season winner/goal difference.

  93. Red Arse says:

    Good morning Dgob, :-)

    You are quite right, about the blogsite and its supportive inhabitants, as well as about the need for all of us to be positive, with any criticism being constructive and not destructive.

  94. Dgob says:

    Red Arse and kgooner,

    I’m pleased to be among like minds. We’ll need all the positivity we can get over these coming weeks and this site seems all the more important in that light.

    COYG

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  98. paul mwesh says:

    …..i think dis season is 4 man city bcoz they hav an advantage ov winning.man citieh’s squad they normaly win wen they r away.and 4 arsenal they wil lose either 3-4points and av a standing in position 3 or 4 same 2 everton,they wil drop and that position occupied ba man u

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