OK it’s been a bad week but let’s put our disappointments behind us and put our focus on what’s ahead. We have a very exciting run in for 4th place, and a spot in the 2012/13 Champions League, with four teams involved – Arsenal – Chelsea – Liverpool and Newcastle. For the purposes of this item I’m going to make the broad assumption that it’s most likely to be either Arsenal or Chelsea that wins the 4th spot even though both Newcastle and Liverpool are also in with more than a good shot.
There are 13 games left in the season and an analysis of our final 13 games in each of the 19 EPL seasons (shown below) shows that we have achieved an average of 26 points with a high of 39 points in 2001/2 and a low of 14 points in 1994/5, and last season we had only 18 points.
So it’s all down to the final 13 games to determine which team is most likely to win the 4th spot. Both teams have been below par this season and both are in jeopardy of being knocked out in the last 16 of this seasons Champions League after Arsenal losing 0-4 to A.C. Milan and Chelsea 1-3 to Napoli.
Currently we are tied with Chelsea with 43 points each, we have the same goal difference of 13, and we are only in 4th place by virtue of having scored more goals our 48 to their 44.
In the history of the EPL it has taken an average of 68 points to gain 4th place, the highest being 76 points in 2007/8, the lowest being 63 points in 1995/96 and last season we achieved 4th with 68 points.
I’ve compiled a chart (below) showing the final 13 games of the season for both teams and I’ve also filled in my personal predictions for each game – I have Arsenal beating Chelsea by 4 points. I recognize that I’m being very optimistic as we would have to get 30 points in our last 13 games and we have not achieved that amount since 2004/5.
Play the prediction game yourself – How do you see the season ending?
Written by GunnerN5